Relief Pitchers ADP Market Report: 1/27/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Raisel Iglesias (+25.83)- Iglesias is moving up the ADP after being traded to the Angels. After a couple seasons of being a guy that some felt was on the hot seat as the Reds closer, he had a dominant season in Cincy, saving eight games with a 2.74 ERA, a .91 WHIP, and a 34% strikeout rate. The fact the Angels spent capital on acquiring him should give him a fairly long leash even if he does struggle.

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

James Karinchak (+14.96)- With Brad Hand gone, many are speculating that Karinchak is the next man up as closer in Cleveland. While he seems like is the top choice, he is not guaranteed to start with the role. If Cleveland decides to bring in a cheap vet, they could help keep Karinchak’s arbitration numbers lower, which is right up their alley. He is almost inside the top 100 picks and is the sixth closer off the board, which is way too expensive for me. 

Ryan Pressly (+20.85)- Pressly had a very good season as the closer after taking over from Roberto Osuna. While the Astros have brought in some bullpen help, they have yet to bring someone in that seems like a challenger for Pressly. As long as they don’t he seems like he is one of the safer closers in fantasy. 

Craig Kimbrel (+44.19)- I think when the draft season started many just looked at the overall line for Kimbrel in 2020. However,  if you dig into the game logs, you realize that if you take away his first five outings where he struggled, he had a 1.54 ERA, a .86 ERA, and 53.3% strikeout rate. Walks were still an issue, but he also didn’t even allow a baserunner in his final eight outings. His contract probably means he gets the closer job back to start the season and he is still going at an affordable price.  

Richard Rodriguez (+31.09)- Rodriguez was very good once he assumed the closer role in Pittsburgh, throwing 12.1 innings with a 2.13 ERA and saving four games. Pittsburgh won’t win a lot of games, but Rodriguez seems like the guy there until they trade him. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Alex Colome (-27.73)- Colome is likely falling for two reasons. First, he hasn’t signed yet. Once he does sign, he would likely rise at least two rounds as long as he has a closing gig. The second reason he is falling is because projections hate him again. Colome is always undervalued in projections, but at the end of the day, he always delivers. He has never had a bad season as a reliever, but he just isn’t your typical dominating closer. I have been drafting him a bunch because I believe in his track record and that he should end up closing for a good team. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Matt Barnes (+32.39)-  Barnes was rising up the ADP in large part because he seemed like the undisputed closer in Boston before the Red Sox traded for Adam Ottavino. However, with Ottavino now in the fold, Barnes may not handle the ninth long term. I think there is a good chance Barnes starts with the job so the Red Sox can get more on the trade market for him, but he is likely not long for the role and could very easily not have it on Opening Day. 

Will Smith (+35.42)- Smith has been moving up the ADP because it seems like he is the closer in Atlanta as of now. That being said, Mark Melancon was the man last year over Smith and the Braves could easily bring Melancon back or another right handed reliever to close. Atlanta has yet to be super active in free agency, but I feel like they are just waiting to strike on a number of guys. 

Drew Pomeranz (+27.14)- Like Will Smith, Pomeranz is rising because as of now, he seems like he is the closer. However, I feel pretty confident the Padres will bring back Trevor Rosenthal or another free agent closer. Pomeranz is a fantastic reliever and he has value, but I don’t think he is the closer in San Diego on Opening Day. 

Tanner Rainey (+54.09)- Rainey jumped in the ADP because he looked like he might be the Nationals closer, but with Brad Hand now in D.C., he should drop right back down. 

Greg Holland (+121.80)- Holland has gotten a huge jump in the ADP after resigning in Kansas City. He was fantastic down the stretch in 2020, throwing 10.1 innings in his last 10 appearances with 14 strikeouts and five saves while allowing no runs on only one walk and five hits. He is a pretty safe bet to be the closer to start the season with KC, but could end up being traded at the deadline. 

Hector Neris (+56.66)- Like a lot of the other guys in this article, Neris was looking like the closer for his team, but with Archie Bradley being brought in, it seems like that may not be the case any longer. He will likely battle Bradley for the job, but my bet is on the other guy. 

Daniel Bard (+32.28)- Bard is rising up the ADP as one of the few projected closers with very little competition for the role. That being said, Bard could easily turn back into a pumpkin in the thin Rocky Mountain air and I don’t think I will take that gamble personally. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Giovanny Gallegos (-23.43)- Gallegos is falling because there is a belief that Jordan Hicks will get the closer role in St. Louis. I am not so sure about that personally. Hicks opted out in 2020, but prior to that, he had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John Surgery. It is likely a committee in St. Louis with Gallegos, Hicks, Ryan Heisley, Alex Reyes and Andrew Miller all in the mix, but if someone was going to emerge as the main guy, my bet would be on Gallegos.