Relative Waiver Wire: Jon Jay, Chris Coghlan

by
September 3, 2014

Searching for options that make sense for the stretch run? Streaming not the ideal method to achieve results in your fantasy baseball league? Need more fiber in your diet?

Who’s a good pickup at this time of year can change in an instant. It’s always tempting to ride a hot hand. But which hot hands are set up to keep it up?

OF Jon Jay, St. Louis Cardinals

Ownership: CBS 23% | Yahoo! 18% | ESPN 41.9%

Jay has never been the most exciting fantasy player. He has, kind of quietly, been one of the best hitters in the major leagues since the All-Star break (.371/.461/.486, with 17 runs and 17 ribs, in 129 PAs). Those kinds of results, plus the exit of Allen Craig, have meant that he’s been played regularly, too (at least four or five games a week), picking up starts against southpaws as well.

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Again, Jay might not seem like a thrilling addition. He hits at the bottom of the lineup, (although it’s possible that manager Mike Matheny considers putting him in the two-hole more often). He has only three home runs and six stolen bases in 379 plate appearances this season. That’s about par for the course for the long-time pseudo-fourth outfielder, in terms of the rates of production, not cumulatively.

But hot bats at this time of year are useful. Duh. And Jay’s results – results (.397/.417/.500, with a .500 BABIP, in 72 PAs), mind you, not components – versus lefties must be what have given Matheny some confidence to roll him out there against them. That’s been encouraging for Jay’s prospects for PT, because he’s pretty much always in there vs. righties.

Remaining schedule: PIT (1), @MIL (4), @CIN (4), COL (3), MIL (3), CIN (3), @CHC (3), @ARI (3)

The cool thing about Jay and St. Louis is that, with the exceptions of the Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks, they don’t face a team with multiple left-handers in their rotations for the rest of the season. It’s obviously not a guarantee that the Cards would draw more than one in a series, either. The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds, both on the remaining schedule twice, are entirely right-handed.

Jay, 29, doesn’t have to worry about the Oscar Taveras questions anymore. And he has a seemingly very beneficial schedule in terms of playing time, at least, for the next few weeks. I’d add him where I could find the room.

OF Chris Coghlan, Chicago Cubs

Ownership: CBS 14% | Yahoo! 12% | ESPN 8.9%

Continuing the theme of less-than-thrilling outfielders is Coghlan, who has remained the Cubbies’ leadoff hitter throughout the franchise’s second-half youth movement. Heck, a month ago, he was the subject of a Chicago Sun-Times column suggesting that he might be part of the future on the North Side. The 29-year-old has been of a revelation, but his fantasy star has dimmed a bit since that ridiculous July (.376/.449/.600, with a .224 ISO, in 99 PAs). He’s picked it up, again, in his last 10 games (.351/.415/.432), however.

Coghlan plays pretty much every day, unlike Jay. Similar to Jay, though, he’s hit southpaws (.282/.378/.423) well – not as well, but well – yet, dissimilar to Jay, he has the peripheral statistics to back up the outcomes. The lack of sensation, same as with Jay, is the lack of counting stuff (a half-dozen home runs and a handful of thefts in 343 PAs this season) in two major categories.

Coghlan may get a day off more often here and there just because the roster has expanded, but he seems to be locked into playing time. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect him to rediscover the power stroke that he displayed in July. But it’s the right time of year for balls to leave the yard, and he’s hit with more power against RHPs this year (.170 ISO) and throughout his career (.138 ISO), naturally.

Remaining schedule: MIL (1), PIT (3), @TOR (3), @PIT (3), CIN (3), LAD (4), STL (3), @MIL (3)

That’s somewhat significant only because of Chicago’s schedule. Plus, if manager Rick Renteria is going to give Coghlan break, they seem likely to come against southpaws, since the handedness of the opposing starter is kind of the default reason for most managers. The Cubs will close the campaign versus the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers (yes, with a Los Angeles Dodgers four-game set mixed in). All three of the mentioned clubs are entirely right-handed, now that Michael Wacha is back in St. Louis’ rotation.

Coghlan is owned in fewer leagues but may be a better addition than Jay, depending on your categorical needs. Are runs one of them? I’d probably go here. Is batting average or OBP really tight? Either is a good option, but Coghlan walks more often and so may feel like a safer choice in the latter.





 

Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.

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