Prospect Stock Watch: Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers
We’re back with another edition of the Prospect Stock Watch. Today — in honor of the upcoming 2016 amateur draft — we’re catching up with three highly-coveted shortstops from the 2015 draft.
Dansby Swanson | Braves | SS
ETA: late 2016
Value: Rising steadily
Arizona nabbed Swanson with the first overall pick in the 2015 draft but flipped him later that winter to Atlanta in the ill-fated Shelby Miller deal (Or is it too early to judge the deal this harshly?). The change in address hasn’t hindered the young shortstop at all. After opening 2016 in high-A ball, he recently moved up to double-A and he’s producing a triple-slash of .299/.382/.474 in 24 games. Swanson, 22, likely won’t be a power-hitter but he has the pop in his bat to hit 30-40 doubles and eight to 10 homers, with enough speed to add another base or two to 20-30 hits via the steal. Veteran shortstop Erick Aybar is having a down-right-terrible season at the big league level so don’t be shocked to see Swanson in some big league action before the year is out. Another talented shortstop, Ozzie Albies, is also in the system and playing at triple-A but he’s been overmatched at that level as a 19 year old.
Alex Bregman | Astros | SS
ETA: summer of 2016
Value: Skyrocketing
Taken at No. 2 in the 2015 amateur draft — right behind Dansby Swanson — Bregman has had the narrow edge in pro ball. The young shortstop is showing just a little bit more feel for hitting than his draft-mate — and with more power. An injury kept him on the shelf for a short period this season but he’s still managed to slug 12 home runs in 33 games and is among the leaders in the minors. Toss in the fact he’s got a BB-K rate of 18-12 and a .333 batting average and you have an exceptional season for Bregman so far. And the league has yet to adjust to him; he’s hitting .381 with five home runs in his last 10 games. With a 21-year-old phenom already entrenched at shortstop in Houston, look for the Bregman to shift over to the hot corner to take over for the disappointing Luis Valbuena and overrate Colin Moran (He’s played five errorless games at the position recently).
Brendan Rodgers | Rockies | SS
ETA: 2019
Value: Steadily Rising
Since we’re having so much fun, let’s continue to talk 2015 draftees. Taken third overall by the Rockies behind two college shortstops — Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman — Rodgers has performed exceptionally well for a teenager. He has an OPS of more than 1.000 to go with a .346 batting average and seven home runs in 32 games at the low-A ball level. His eye at the plate needs some further development — as witnessed by his BB-K rate of 11-22 but his strikeout rate of 15.3% is reasonable considering the amount of power he’s been producing. Just imagine what kind of pop he might produce when he gains a little more man-strength and starts playing half his games in Colorado. With rookie shortstop Trevor Story playing very well in The Show, the Rockies front office could have a very good “problem” on its hands in a few years. Tulo who?
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Who arrives first in Houston, Bregman or AJ Reed? Which do you see as the better contributor?
Bregman’s gotta be up first, right? Tyler White’s been competent in Houston, and Bregman’s currently laying waste to AA pitching.
I honestly thought Bregman was going to go on the road trip with Houston last night… Valbuena is hitting, but he can shift to 1b. White is a liability with the glove right now. A Marwin Gonzalez / Luis Valbuena platoon, with Bregman at 3b seems likely by the end of June. Bregman is now playing consecutive games at 3b.
I would be surprised at this point if they bring him up before super 2. They may as well evaluate Moran and get that extra year of control at the same time.
They have the extra year of control. Its one less year of arb.
No. Not too early to trash the Shelby Miller trade. It was awful to begin with, and shortsighted. I’d say Stewart needs to be fired, if I cared.
I wonder if the Rockies can move Story to 2b or LF? Whom is the better fielder? Tulo…whoops!…Story or Rodgers?
Thanks Mark! How does Willy Adames stack up compared w these guys?
If they both make it to the ATL someday, who moves off SS–Swanson or Albies?
My guess – in a few weeks Dansby is promoted to AAA and we will then know exactly how the position thing plays out. Anyone who acts like they have any solid information right know is basically guessing.
How high do you think Bregman has raised his fantasy ceiling? His numbers are better than Correa’s were in AA… #smallsample.
Is Lindor>Russell>Bregman still the right order in terms of fantasy value in dynasty/keeper leagues?
Well Bregman won’t have SS eligibility next year so that’s a big ding
Thats assuming Houston doesnt decide to shift Correa over to 3b next winter.
What are the chances they move Correa instead? Seems his defense isn’t so great
What’s the general rule regarding defensive metrics stabilizing? Three-ish years? Correa seems to pass the eyeball test at SS.
Bregman will have SS eligibility next year. He might lose it in 2018, but he only needs to start 5 games at SS next year to qualify for OttoNeu purposes.
Bregman’s fantasy ceiling really depends on how credible his new-found power is. Are his 12 HR’s this year due to a mechanical change, or has he had some good fortune in getting a handful of flyballs to just barely clear the fences?
Before the season, Dan Farnsworth wrote this about Bregman: “Some evaluators believe Bregman will develop average power, but I just don’t see that in the cards. He has the strength, but his approach is geared toward contact and his flat-to-downward swing plane limits his fly-ball power to balls up in the zone, where the bat path levels out more. I’m giving him a 45 ceiling grade on it, but that would require conscious swing changes that won’t be necessary for him to be an excellent asset on offense.”
I’m guessing that Bregman’s power would project to be about 15-20 HRs over a full MLB season. Mookie Betts might be the best comparable player. Similar size, similar K% and BB% in the minors, and similar scouting reports which described them both as having great contact skills and solid strength, but limited power potential.
If Mookie is the comp… people will be more than happy
This is the best explanation I could find from the man himself regarding the power spike.
“Talking Stros: Are you surprised with the power you are showing this year?
Bregman: I’m not, neither are the people I train with back home. It goes back to the preparation that I have done this offseason, and we really worked on hitting the ball when it’s inside to the left side of the field for singles and doubles. But when I do pull the ball, we want it in the air. Focus on driving the baseball, in college, they teach you to hit the ball on the ground and hit the ball on the line. I’ve also put on 20 pounds since I left college, those adjustments should help me with the power.”
https://climbingtalshill.com/2016/05/20/houston-astros-talking-stros-with-alex-bregman/
Bregman is the most Bettsian player in the minors. His combination of low O%, high Z%, consistent, hard contact, high BB%, low K% (he actually walks more than he strikes out) is rare and impressive. He even runs fairly well.
I think Bregman could contribute defensively at almost any position (aside from P and C), and if he winds up at 3B or OF his bat would still be impressive.
Truly a Bettsian player.