Prospect Stock Watch: Arcia, Beras, Hoffman

We’ve spent much of the stock watches over the past few weeks looking at players on the upswing. Today, we’ll look at a player on the downswing, as well as a couple of prospects that might be getting overvalued in your fantasy leagues.

Orlando Arcia | SS | Brewers
Value: Steady
ETA: 2017

When the season began, it seemed to be a forgone conclusion that Arcia would be playing shortstop for the rebuilding Brewers by mid season but then placeholder Jonathan Villar went and started to realize his potential. As a result, that likely pushes Arcia’s debut back to either late 2016 or 2017. The Brewers could eventually rotate both Villar and Arcia through second base and shortstop, along with Scooter Gennett also seeing time at second base, unless a trade eventually frees up some playing time. Arcia is a much better real-life baseball player than fantasy contributor due to his best tool being his defence — followed by his hit tool and then his base-running abilities.

Jairo Beras | OF | Rangers
Value: Dropping
ETA: 2019

Given a huge whack of money to sign, Beras has been a rather big disappointment to date. In fairness, he’s still only 21 years old but he spent two years in low-A ball and has struggled this season in high-A ball — despite the fact that the California League is a hitter’s haven. Beras’ approach at the plate has been pretty lousy with a BB-K rate of 8-64. When he makes contact, though, the 6-6, 195 pound outfielder can hit the ball a long way so the organization will be patient with him. With lots of young talent ahead of him — including another bonus baby in Nomar Mazara, who signed one year prior — there is no reason to rush Beras.

Jeff Hoffman | RHP | Rockies
Value: Steady
ETA: 2017

The Troy Tulowitzki trade hasn’t exactly been a slam-dunk success for Toronto but Colorado has enjoyed the prospect rewards. Hoffman is the best of the bunch that was received by the Rockies and he’s currently pitching well in the triple-A Pacific Coast League. The 23-year-old right-hander has allowed 71 hits and just 29 walks in 74.2 innings. His control has been impressive considering he can reach the upper 90s with his heater. Despite the overpowering stuff, Hoffman has struck out “just” 68 hitters. As well, he would probably be better served to induce more ground-ball outs with half of his future big league starts likely to come in Colorado. As with any Rockies pitching prospect, you’ll want to be cautious with Hoffman and not overrated him based on his impressive fastball.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Daniel
8 years ago

Should be noted this is Hoffman’s first full season back from TJS.