Prospect Positional Review: Right-Handed Starters

Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops and outfielders. Today is the review of the right-handed starters.

Actual Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Results
3.2 — Anthony DeSclafani, Reds
3.1 — Noah Syndergaard, Mets
2.8 — Lance McCullers, Astros
1.6 — Taylor Jungmann, Brewers
1.6 — Raisel Iglesias, Reds
1.5 — Nate Karns, Rays
1.4 — Chris Bassitt, Athletics
1.4 — Joe Ross, Nationals
1.3 — Chris Heston, Giants

Marc’s Top 8
1. Noah Syndergaard, Mets
2. Anthony DeSclafani, Reds
3. Aaron Nola, Phillies
4. Braden Shipley, D-Backs
5. Eddie Butler, Rockies
6. Matt Wisler, Padres
7. Dylan Bundy, Orioles
8. Alex Meyer, Twins

Honorable Mentions
Mark Appel, Astros
Luis Severino, Yankees
Rafael Montero, Mets
Alex Gonzalez, Rangers
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
Jon Gray, Rockies
Michael Lorenzen, Reds
Raisel Iglesias, Reds

The Top 2 players on this list are former draft picks of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays almost made it to the World Series in 2015 but it was at the cost of a lot of good young talent. I actually predicted Syndergaard and DeSclafani would be at the top of the rookie class of 2015 for pitchers due to their mix of talent and strength of their clubs’ existing depth.

The Mets rookie was even a key performer in the playoffs as the club reached the World Series. He was better in his first year than I expected with just 31 walks and 166 Ks. The Reds rookie allowed a lot of base runners but showed a higher propensity for strikeouts than I expected from him early in his career. Both should be key contributors for years to come — although Syndergaard has a much higher ceiling as a potential No. 1 or 2 starter, while DeSclafani is more of a mid-rotation arm at his peak.

McCullers was a guy that I’m really big on but played it safe with 2015 estimations considering he hadn’t pitched above A-ball when the year began and his walk rate was more than five walks per nine innings in ’14. There was also no guarantee that he would pitch out of the bullpen in his debut since some talent evaluators viewed him as more of a reliever like his father Lance McCullers Sr.

Iglesias was another guy who was more impactful in 2015 than expected, again because there were questions about his ultimate role — starter or reliever. He had also only signed out of Cuba in 2014 so no one knew exactly how well — or quickly — his stuff would in The Show. I’d say 104 strikeouts in 95.1 innings but a lot of concerns to rest.

Jungmann was a guy I always liked as a former first round pick of the Brewers but he under performed throughout his career in the minors. As a big leaguer, though, he showed improved command and better secondary stuff. He looks like a future innings-eater for Milwaukee, and was a key contributor to a rotation that really wasn’t very good in 2015 until the young guys showed up.

Heston is another guy that I wrote about a fair bit earlier in his career. I was about the only one at that time that thought he would contribute, well, anything at the big league level. He doesn’t wow with his stuff but he’s relentless and pounds the zone. The 27-year-old rookie struggled late in the year as he clearly tired but there’s no reason why he can’t continue to be a useful innings eater at the back of a big league rotation thanks to his fastball command, four-pitch mix and guile.

Like Heston, Karns was an over-aged rookie but his stuff is better — albeit it without the same command and feel. He’s already bounced around quite a bit in his career and will open 2016 with his third organization in seven years after recently being traded. Staying on the same theme of older guys, Bassitt had a nice year as a back-end guy for the A’s thanks in part to the large ball park. He took a little longer to develop — like many taller pitchers do.

My No. 3 guy entering 2015, Nola, stayed in the minors longer than I thought he would. Once he arrived, though, he looked like a solid big league performer even though his fastball velo won’t wow anyone (partly by design).

Shipley didn’t move as quickly through the Diamondbacks system as I thought he would and was stuck at Double-A all year. Likewise, Meyer appeared in just two games at the big league level and ended up in the bullpen at Triple-A.

Both Butler and Wisler received opportunities at the big league level but under performed while pitching for bad teams.