Prospect Positional Review: Outfielders

Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops. Today ! break down the outfield rookie class.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
137 — Randal Grichuk, Cardinals
134 — Michael Conforto, Mets
132 — Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals
132 — Enrique Hernandez, Dodgers
131 — Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
125 — Tommy Pham, Cardinals
124 — Aaron Altherr, Phillies
115 — Joc Pederson, Dodgers

Marc’s Top 5
Jorge Soler, Cubs
Rusney Castillo, Red Sox
Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Steven Souza, Rays
Dalton Pompey, Blue Jays

Honorable Mentions
Mikie Mahtook, Rays
Michael Taylor, Nationals
Jesse Winker, Reds
Byron Buxton, Twins
Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals

I’ve never been a huge fan of Grichuk and that was reflected on my pre-season list (He wasn’t there). I also didn’t expect injuries and disappointing performances to provide as many opportunities for him as they did. We always knew he had immense raw power but he tapped into it surprisingly well in 2015, resulting in a .272 ISO. Unfortunately he swung and missed A LOT (more than 31%) and the .329 OBP is nothing to get excited about. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance in terms of solid overall game.

The Mets’ first round draft pick from 2014, Conforto immediately jumped on the fast track when he joined pro ball and found himself playing in the World Series in 2015 He actually tapped into his power better in the Majors than he had in the minors and his overall game was impressive — especially given his lack of experience as a pro. The emergence of Conforto makes the Michael Cuddyer signing look so, so bad — and his presence is why I didn’t expect the rookie to see enough playing time to be relevant in ’15.

Piscotty was the second Cardinals rookie to have a real impact in the Majors this past season. Drafted as a third baseman, he was more of a contact guy early in his career — capable of hitting .300+. He sacrificed some of that to produce more pop and he showed .200+ ISO potential in 2015 — which is more what you’d expect from a corner outfielder. Despite the minor tweaks in approach, Piscotty still managed to hit more than .300 in his rookie season. If you buy into both Grichuk’s and Piscotty’s futures then the Cardinals have an impressive future ahead in the outfield.

Hernandez’s performance was probably a surprise to most people — including the two organizations that traded him. A relatively late bloomer, he showed an aggressive approach, which led to a fair amount of strikeouts but also some unexpected pop. His versatility (every position but 1B and C) makes him a valuable roster piece for the Dodgers — and fantasy owners alike (assuming he gets regular playing time).

Schwarber, like Conforto, was a guy I didn’t think would be an impact player at the big league level in 2015 — mainly because there was the threat of keeping him behind the plate, which would have significantly slowed his development. He certainly showed himself to be far more advanced — and more well rounded — than Jorge Soler, whom I expected to be the cream of the crop amongst rookie outfielders this past season. The combination of Schwarber and Kris Bryant give the Cubs a nasty middle of the order for years to come — and with Soler lurking in the shadows… not to mention Javier Baez, Addison Russell… wow.

Pham (yet another Cardinal rookie) and Altherr were surprise members of the Top 8 rookie outfielders in 2015 — albeit due to smaller sample sizes. Both played above and beyond what should be expected going forward — although they could develop into useful part-time players at the big league level.

Pederson got off to a scorching start in 2015 but came back down to earth in the second half of the year. If he can find a middle ground, he’ll be a solid big league performer. If he can rekindle his success from the first few months of the year, he could be a star with his combination of power, speed and defence.

Souza was a rare outfielder from the 2015 rookie class that stuck in the Majors all year long. Unfortunately, he significantly under performed. Considering he was an over-aged rookie to begin with the poor year casts a lot of questions around his future. You have to expect strikeouts to come with power output — in most cases — but a 34% K-rate is going too far.

Castillo fell victim to the Red Sox depth in the outfield but once he did have some playing time his bat wilted under the pressure. He played some solid defence but that doesn’t help fantasy owners. Pompey was another guy that didn’t hit when given an opportunity and then lost his job to defensive wizard Kevin Pillar — who might end up winning the gold glove. Despite the disappointing year, the rookie Canadian outfielder still made an impact on the team as a pinch runner and even earned a spot on the playoff roster.