Player Targets or Asset Classes?

Over my many years of fantasy experience, I’ve come to recognize two methods of building a roster. Method 1: an owner targets very specific players and fills around those as needed. Usually, the owner aggressively shops those filler players. Method 2: Every player is treated as a generic asset, sorted into classes. Today, we’ll talk about the pros and cons of both approaches.

When targeting specific players, there’s a tendency to reach for them in the draft. Otherwise, how else can you ensure you’ll get everyone you want. Let’s say you’re betting on young talent. You’re eager to get at least two of Andrew Benintendi, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Bregman. For the sake of argument, lets say they all have eighth round ADPs. That means you’ll be drafting them starting in the sixth or seventh round.

It could be said that these players are from the same asset class even though they play different positions. They share risk factors, upside, and expected cost. An owner who focuses on asset classes will be indifferent between the trio of options. They’ll take whichever fits their roster best at the time of their eighth round pick. If none are available, they’ll turn to another asset from the same class. Rather than reaching for Benintendi in the seventh round, they’ll draft a more appropriate talent like Khris Davis.

There is value to specifically targeting a player like Benintendi. Based on our staff rankings, he’s the 41st ranked outfielder, sandwiched between Jose Peraza and Joc Pederson. Between his adequate power, plate discipline, and plus contact ability, Benintendi’s upside looks something like peak Michael Brantley. Even if he doesn’t make that much contact, he’s still poised to provide a lot of fantasy value. He’s rumored to be in consideration for the second spot in the batting order.

Focusing too closely on Benintendi causes one to lose sight of the larger picture. We’re here to win fantasy baseball championships. When it comes time to make the pick, a Benintendi lover will never audible to Matt Kemp. Even though Kemp absolutely should be picked first. Seems wrong, doesn’t it? Let’s investigate.

Benintendi is projected to hit .283/.338/.440. We’ve talked about the upside, what about the downside? Steamer thinks he’ll cut his strikeout rate by one-third, from 21.2 percent to 14.5 percent. It thinks this because Benintendi had an above average 7.4 percent swinging strike rate and never struck out more than 11.4 percent in the minors. Long term, we’re likely to see his strikeouts decline from his debut rate. However, it’s not guaranteed to happen this year. Young, patient hitters sometimes post unusually high strikeout rates as they acclimate to the majors.

Steamer also projects 11 home runs and 14 steals over 560 plate appearances. I think he’ll hit for more power. Again, precocious hitters sometimes struggle to tap into their game power. Moreover, I think it’s pretty likely he doesn’t swipe 14 bags. If he hits 11 home runs and steals something like eight bases, he’s basically a shinier Melky Cabrera. And that’s the rosiest version of his downside.

Perhaps my point got lost in the middle of that Benintendi diversion. Owners who target players develop blind spots. The asset class approach is… less blind. You’ll still make mistakes about certain players by putting them in the wrong asset classes.

Of course, anytime there are two ways to do something, there’s usually a third approach that walks the line between the two. Fantasy baseball roster building is no different. I certainly have players I prioritize even though I also pick based on asset class. When deciding which direction you want to lean, the number of leagues you play is a good deciding factor.

If, like me, you play a dozen leagues a year, you’ll want to diversify your holdings as much as possible. Managing the same team 12 times introduces a lot of volatility to your fantasy season. Better to have some successes and some failures. That means taking the top available asset when its your turn to pick and focusing on managerial strategy to win your leagues. Alternatively, if you’re the type who prefers to go all in on a couple leagues, micromanaging the draft by selecting specific targets may be the right way to go. You’ll have more time to iron out any mistakes during the season.