Pitcher Spotlight: Don’t Overlook Collin McHugh

I didn’t care for Collin McHugh for the first half of 2017. You probably didn’t care for Collin McHugh. Why would we? He was returning mid-season from an impingement in his throwing elbow and tendinitis in his shoulder after he held a 4.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 184.2 frames the previous year. It was an investment that just wasn’t worth your time…or so we thought. Instead of mediocrity, McHugh was quietly productive in his 12 starts – 3.55 ERA (3.82 FIP), 22.9% K rate, and a 1.29 WHIP across 63.1 innings. Not studly or game-changing, but nor the disaster we forecasted. This may be chalked up to being a fluke as his numbers aren’t so far off from his large 2016 workload, but I think there was something here that you should be aware of.

It may seem irrelevant, but I want to take a moment to paint the picture of Mr. McHugh prior to the 2017 season. His 2014 breakout season – 2.73 ERA, 25.4% K rate, 6.6% BB rate, 1.02 WHIP  – was a product of not only his well-documented Curveball but also a Cutter/Slider (I’m going to call it a Cutter) that batters didn’t know what to do with. It had plenty of vertical drop (2.3 zMov) and did an excellent job of appearing like a pitch sailing near batters’ chests before falling down just far enough to nip the top of the zone. It was a signifcant element to McHugh’s makeup that made batters a bit more uncomfortable in the box and despite its unorthodox approach, it worked.

2015 and 2016 were clear disappointments after his breakout 2014 season and little digging surfaces a few significant faults. While his Curveball still has the massive break that made him a Statcast poster child, he still didn’t have a Fastball that he could trust to throw inside the zone and his Cutter lost two inches of its vertical drop (4.4 zMov) – so much that Pitchf/x elected to stop calling it a Slider and firmly a Cutter at the start of 2016. The end result was a pair of years that made McHugh waiver wire fodder in fantasy leagues and a bit of a leper when returning to the rotation during the 2017 summer.

I imagine you read the last two paragraphs and mostly agreed with it. It’s how you’ve characterized McHugh in your mind. Well, I just told who he was and I want you to forget it. I apologize for the terrible infomercial approach, but McHugh simply isn’t the same pitcher anymore.

No longer is McHugh reliant solely on his Cutter’s production, with its usage dropping from a range of 28 – 38% to 2017’s sub 10% rate. Curveballs have fallen to 19.2% despite a 24.4% career mark. Instead, McHugh has a brand new Slider that he threw 16.2% of the time and has bumped his Fastball usage 13 points as well. This was a complete overhaul of McHugh’s repertoire and the makeover churned positive results.

For the first time in his career, McHugh held a positive pVal with his Fastball improving from a horrific -8.0 mark in 2016 to a sturdy 5.0 value in 2017. Its whiff rate rose an excellent 11.5% while landing in the zone at a remarkable 58.8% rate, and he cut his career HR/FB rate of 12.1% in half – an astounding 6.1% clip in his 12 starts. The major change here was 2.6 extra inches of horizontal movement that gave McHugh more confidence throwing inside the zone and avoiding the long ball.

That extra movement might not sound all too significant, so I’ve made a GIF that combines a pair of Fastballs against Mark Trumbo. First is one taken from August 2016 (Fastball away) and the other from July 2017 (Fastball inside):

It’s not a massive difference, but you can see a little extra ride on the latter as McHugh earned an early strike. It’s an improvement that turned the pitch from a liability to a weapon.

Having a Fastball that McHugh can finally trust is a crucial element to his new approach, but its effectiveness can be rooted in his aforementioned brand new Slider. McHugh learned it from Brad Peacock and it’s been phenomenal. For your enjoyment and education, here’s a GIF of the pitch dismantling Paul Goldschmidt:

Its aggressive vertical drop (-0.2 zMov) created an 18.2% whiff rate and limited batters to making contact just 61.7% of the time. McHugh turned to the slide piece 44% of the time with two strikes against right-handed batters, helping him earn a whopping 45.5% strikeout rate in the 270 Sliders thrown. Batters hit just .160, slugged only six extra-base hits, and its 36.8% O-Swing with a near 40% zone rate details a weapon that was getting strikes both on and off the plate. This was a pitch McHugh didn’t have prior to 2017 and he had success with it right out of the gate.

The improved quality of McHugh’s Fastball and Slider made another other offering more effective as well. His Cutter’s production, despite being demoted to his fourth pitch, was astounding as it earned a 5.5 pVal despite just 161 thrown in 2017. It gained an inch back on its vertical drop (3.2 zMov), reduced its horizontal sweep away from right-handers – 0.6 xMov in 2017 compared to its 3.3 career mark – and allowed a paltry .195 to batters. Meanwhile, the Cutter landed in the zone just under 60% of the time, turning into an effective strike-getter for McHugh when needed another look. Being able to take a secondary role in the pitch mix allowed McHugh’s Cutter to turn into a great change of pace offering and keep batters guessing.

It wasn’t all great for McHugh’s repertoire in 2017, though. His Curveball took a major step back across the board with its whiff rate dropping dramatically from a standard 17.6% mark to an abysmal 9.6% clip, its O-Swing dropped over 15 points to 25.7%, and batters improving their contact rate to 70% rate from a low 58.0% rate in 2016. Part of the reason may be his Slider taking over as the premier putaway pitch or possibly its loss of three inches on its horizontal break, but regardless of its catalyst, McHugh did suffer from missing the punch of his big hook. Fortunately, McHugh is now in a position where he doesn’t have to rely on the pitch nearly as much as he did prior, though its ability to miss bats will be something to monitor in 2018.

I’m not telling you that Collin McHugh is a must-own pitcher and can be your #3 starter in 2018. That’s silly. I’m telling you to re-think your thoughts on McHugh and recognize that he appears to be a great value at his 314 ADP according to the early Mock Drafts hosted by Rotograph’s very own Justin Mason. Seeing him fall behind arms like Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Mike Foltynewicz, Tyler Glasnow, and Jerad Eickhoff is unfair to me, as McHugh is still getting penalized for his blunder 2015 and 2016 years. He’s turned a new leaf and so should you.