Peter Bourjos, Sleeper?

Despite all the mainstream praise of his defense, Torii Hunter finally shifted to a corner outfield spot last season, and did so in deference to a rookie. Peter Bourjos, a former tenth round pick, usurped Hunter in center, playing the position on an everyday basis after coming up in early-August. Our own Marc Hulet ranked Bourjos as the Angels’ fourth best prospect before the 2010 season while Baseball America had him second. Both parties agreed that he had the speed to steal a hefty number of bases on an annual basis, and that his power is more towards the gaps than over-the-fence (.159 ISO in the minors). The part about his excellent centerfield defense isn’t relevant to our interests, since we’re going to look at his 2011 fantasy value.

Unsurprisingly, Bourjos was a bit overmatched after coming up, hitting just .204/.237/.381 with six homers in 193 plate appearances. That’s not uncommon for young players, and 193 PA is hardly anything to get worked up over. Especially since he was a 23-year-old in a division with a lot of really, really good pitching. Bourjos did show off some of that speed, swiping ten bases with the Halos including five bags in his last 13 games. His minor league resume is impressive and followed a fairly typical development plan.

Bourjos’ breakout season came at hitter friendly Rancho Cucamonga in 2008, when he hit .295/.326/.444 with nine homers, ten triples, and 50 steals. He moved up to Double-A in 2009 and hit .284/.354/.423 with six homers, 14 triples, and 32 steals while battling a wrist ligament issue that required offseason surgery. A strong recovery led to a .314/.364/.498 effort in Triple-A this past summer, including 13 homers, 12 triples, and 27 steals in 102 games before the call-up.

To get an idea of what we could be in store for in 2011, let’s look at the three projection systems…

Fans: .273/.320/.428, 62 R, 12 HR, 68 RBI, 32 SB, 505 PA

Bill James: .260/.305/.392, 39 R, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 19 SB, 281 PA

ZiPS: .259/.300/.401, 89 R, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 35 SB, 606 PA

Clearly, if Bourjos is going to provide value to your fantasy team, two things have to happen: he’s got to play every single day, and he has to get on base enough to use his legs. He’s not going to hit you a ton of homers nor drive in runs, so we’re looking at a speed guy that hopefully won’t kill your AVG.

In some ways, Bourjos is like Brett Gardner-lite with regards to expected fantasy production. The Yankee outfielder stole 47 bags with a respectable .277 AVG last season (.383 OBP for you OBP-leaguers), and he also chipped in 97 runs scored thanks to the lineup around him. Bourjos will likely be a notch below that in 2011, say 30-35 steals, an average in the .260’s, and 60-70 runs scored in the most likely scenario. Bourjos has considerably more power (he hit 19 total homers in 2010, Gardner has 17 total homers in his five-plus year career) but not the same on-base skills (77 uIBB over the last two years, Gardner drew 78 in 2010 alone), so it’s not a great comparison beyond the steals and AVG.

Fantasy owners aren’t going to reap the rewards of Bourjos’ biggest asset, that great defense. He’s a nice upside play for a bench spot in standard leagues and perhaps as much as a third outfield option in deeper mixed leagues or AL-only circuits, but make no mistake, it’s very risky. Bourjos could just as easily find himself back in the minors just as he could end up hitting leadoff on a full-time basis, so I simply wouldn’t count on him out to a productive member of my roster out of the gate. I’ll take the safe route here before jumping on him should the production be there in April.

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