Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 3, 2025
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
- Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Current Auctions
Jeremiah Jackson – 92 current auctions
Jackson slashed .313/.343/.537 in 360 minor league plate appearances this season. Since his August call-up and major league debut, he’s produced an even better slash line as a big leaguer, .333/.358/.539. He’s certainly had a hot start and is playing above his expectations. That’s been aided by a .411 BABIP and unsupported by a lower-than-average zone contact rate. His statcast pitch values and wOBA marks show that he’s done well hitting off-speed and breaking balls. That’s a great sign for a young hitter. Especially when he’s shown not to be overmatched against fastballs. As of now, he’s hitting in the top of the lineup and mostly playing right field for the O’s, but he has great defensive versatility in fantasy leagues. Jackson’s long-term viability is unclear, as the Orioles have more outfielders than roster spots.
Carter Jensen – 40 current auctions
Jensen has pinch-hit in one game so far after being called up on September 2nd. His prospect report reads:
Almost four years after he got a little over a million bucks to sign with his hometown Royals out of high school, Jensen is blending good athleticism with above-average raw power and arm strength, while hanging tough against Southern League pitching at age 21.
Now a 22-year-old big-leaguer, it’s unclear how Jensen will be utilized. He still projects as a catcher, and the Royals are now rostering three catchers in Jensen, Salvador Perez, and Luke Maile as rosters have expanded in September. Still, recall that Freddy Fermin was traded away from the Royals at the deadline this season, so Jensen may get some opportunity to take big league reps at the position. His minor league season went well. He slashed .290/.377/.501, stole 10 bags, and hit 20 home runs in 111 combined AA/AAA games. He’s a catching prospect worth an Ottoneu roster spot for those looking to stockpile for the future.
Garrett Cleavinger – 34 current auctions
Cleavinger has not given up a home run since June 25th and has recorded 21.1 IP since. In that time, his K/9 is an incredible 12.66. He’s run a very high LOB% (95.7%), but that’s what relievers are supposed to do, right? He’s accumulated 20 holds, his fastball velocity is at a career high by season’s measure, and his four-seam/slider combination is showing elevated Stuff+ measurements.
Roster Adds
Luis Morales – Add% Change (7 Days) – 38.8%
The 22-year-old pitcher who snuck in February’s Top 100 Prospect List made his debut in relief in early August and has since collected five starts for Oakland. He’s done well to limit home runs (0.64 HR/9 vs. 1.18 MLB all pitching average) and walks, though his 9.9% BB% is slightly above the major league average of 8.4%.
Morales has some serious prospect pedigree, and you can look back on his development through at least six different prospect articles on this incredible website. Overall, his time in the majors has gone well. He’s showing great surface-level stats: 0.99 WHIP and 1.59 ERA. But his xERA sits at 4.12, his LOB% is 91.3%, and his BABIP is a low .221. Still, he’s striking batters out at a 27.0% clip, better than the league average. His slider’s Stuff+ sits at 173, making it the seventh-best pitch by that mark among pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings. Change the leaderboard to show changeup performance, and you’ll see a completely different story. Morales’ changeup Stuff+ is a low 51. Like all young pitchers, he has some developing to do, but he’s displayed an ability to strike out major league hitters at a high level, and that should be enough to add him to your roster.
Payton Tolle – Add% Change (7 Days) – 28.4%
You may look at Tolle’s 5.1 IP and think, there’s no way that 38.1% K% will hold up, and you would have sound intuition. But, you can’t take away the fact that Tolle’s K% was above 35% in both A+ and AA this season. Once he got to AAA, that mark dropped all the way down to 28.8%. Oh no! Hopefully, you notice my sarcasm. In aggregate, his 2025 MiLB K% sits at 36.5%. Now, those 5.1 major league innings are looking a little different. How is this happening? Tolle’s individual pitch Stuff+ is off the charts, ruby red. But here comes the knock…
…his location numbers are nearly opposite those displayed on his stuff. Furthermore, his strategy in his first outing was to pound hitters with fastballs, and that’s not always sustainable. However, when the stuff is that good and the delivery so unique, there aren’t many comps to project from. His issue with locating pitches hasn’t necessarily been displayed in high walk rates through the three levels of the minor leagues Tolle has visited this season, but Location+ measures more than whether a pitcher is in the zone or out of the zone. From our glossary page:
Location+ is a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place. No velocity, movement, or any other physical characteristics are included in the statistic. A breaking ball should go to different parts of the strike zone in 2-0 and 1-2 counts, and Location+ captures that phenomenon.
This balance between locating and throwing wicked stuff makes for complicated analysis. But, he’s a young lefty who’s being given starts during a Red Sox playoff race. Surely that’s worth a look in fantasy leagues. He’s already being rostered above 90%, so you’ll have to hope he fell under the radar of anyone keeping track of Red Sox prospects. Tolle was listed at 6th in our most recent ranking.
The last thing to consider is that Tolle hasn’t quite figured out his secondaries just yet. Granted, he’s only had one start, and it’s possible that Statcast is having trouble classifying his pitches. It shows Tolle having thrown four sliders, one curveball, and one sinker in addition to his Stuff+ graded four-seam, cutter, and changeup. This will be the most important thing to watch if you’re investing more than just a $1 roster spot. Just as was written in his prospect report, “His floor is that of an utterly dominant reliever, and he’ll be a mid-rotation guy if his secondary stuff keeps evolving.”
Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers. Players selected are usually rostered at lower levels.
Luis Matos – 9.6 P/G
Since being called back up to the major league squad on August 21st, Matos has been on a tear. In that time (45 PA), he’s slashed .405/.422/.738, hit three home runs, and stolen two bases. He doesn’t seem to want to go back down to the minor leagues, and with only one MiLB option left, he’s making a case for sticking around.
Harrison Bader – 8.6 P/G
Since joining the Phillies on August 1st, Bader is slashing .313/.385/.488 (91 PA) and is listed as the everyday, non-platooned center fielder.
Ian Seymour – 8.7 P/IP
A feature in last week’s “Hot Right Now”, Seymour stayed hot against the Nationals and nearly matched his line from his first major league start with eight strikeouts and one walk. Those are two low-level offenses to measure up against, but the young lefty continues to use a wide arsenal to produce a much better than average 23.7% K-BB%.
Jack Leiter – 8.2 P/IP
Leiter’s K% is trending in the right direction, but his BB% is not. In his last two starts, he’s only walked two batters, but in his last five starts, he’s walked 11. His BB/9 on the year is a way too high 4.36. He’s still developing as a big-leaguer, and he’s shown positive signs of growth, but this recent hot streak is not an indicator that he’s more than his 4.23 P/IP mark on the season.
