Ottoneu Hot Right Now: Sep 11, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Thomas Saggese – 24 current auctions

In mid-May, Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice ranked the 22-year-old at number seven in the Cardinals prospect group, writing:

His hit tool is probably going to play below Saggese’s bat control talent due to his tendency to expand the zone, and without that carrying quite as much weight as it has in the minors, Saggese is more likely to be a well-rounded utilityman than an everyday player.

Saggese played shortstop and batted seventh on Tuesday for the Cardinals, but it’s tough believing that will continue as Masyn Winn stands in the way. Saggese slashed .253/.313/.438 in 479 plate appearances in AAA this season. He also hit 20 home runs and stole nine bases. It seems like a good idea to pick him up for $1, see how he handles the major leagues, and then make your decisions about keeping or cutting in the offseason.

Joey Bart – 26 current auctions

The Pirates catcher is back in the lineup after being activated from the IL last week. In the 13 plate appearances since, he’s hit a home run, a double, and three singles. Bart has posted his best Z-Contact% (85.3%) and Barrel% (11.3%) of his career. He’s hit 13 home runs in total and has a .502 slugging percentage. Bart will likely always run higher-than-average strikeout rates, but this season he’s been able to maintain some of the lowest strikeout numbers of his career and made big leaps in the power department. If Bart is available in your league, it’s possible you could sneak in and grab a late blooming one-time touted prospect for cheap.

Aaron Ashby – 24 current auctions

It was the end of March 2024, the very beginning of the season when Chad Young wrote:

He’s on my watchlist, pending minor league performance. But I need to see some significant, sustained success and news of a potential call up to really get interested at this point.

In his last two outings, both of which came in relief, Ashby faced 18 batters and gave up only two hits, walked none, and struck out five. If we go back even further to August 25th when he was recalled from the minors and joined the bullpen, Ashby has not given up a run in 11.0 innings of relief. Stuff+ has his curveball grading out as elite and Ashby pairs it with a slider that is above average, but he relies on a bad fastball, a sinker graded out as “poor”. He throws it 46% of the time. That profiles as a reliever and while Ashby will help the Brewers down the stretch, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll impact your fantasy team much. We are still waiting on sustained success.

Roster Adds

Matthew Boyd – Add% Change (7 Days) – 18.5%

Boyd is back baby! He’s back to a 92 MPH fastball, back to six-inning starts, back to decent strikeout numbers. He’s collected two wins in his last three starts and his season-long (28.1 IP) ERA sits at 2.20 (3.01 xERA). His Stuff+ marks are not good, but he’s never really been a “stuff” guy. His 2.20 ERA compares to a 4.85 career ERA and a current .192 BABIP tells us he’s been lucky in his short time on the mound this season. He faces the White Sox next (today, 9/11) and may get a chance to keep the good times rolling. After that? He’s a streamer.

David Peterson – Add% Change (7 Days) – 16.3%

Peterson has a 2.39 ERA in his last eight games. That includes four wins. Comparing that to his season-long 2.98 ERA suggests he’s made some improvements. Both his fastball velocity and Stuff+ have been trending up. That can also be seen in the four-seamer’s season-long SwStr% of 11.8% compared to a career 9.3%. However, he’s decreased the usage of the pitch, favoring a sinker in its place and his sinker is a better pitch from a Stuff+ perspective:

His overall K% has fallen below past season marks, but his WHIP is down from last season and his HR/9 is at a career-low 0.70.

DL Hall – Add% Change (7 Days) – 11.3%

DL is back baby! Well, he’s back in the bullpen. He came back to the big leagues after rehabbing an injury in the minors and made two starts totaling 11.2 IP for the Brewers. He gave up four walks across those two starts but also struck out 14 batters. After those two starts, he was moved to the bullpen. Throughout DL’s career, he has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever and it may still not be clear which he is. Here’s a look at his career SP/RP splits:

As Starter: 1.42 HR/9,   22.1% K%,   11.4% BB%
As Reliever: 0.51 HR/9,   29.5% K%,   7.5% BB%

Hall has potential, but he has yet to string together consistent outings as either a reliever or a starter.

Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Lawrence Butler – (12.9 P/G)

Butler continues to shine in a breakout year. His actual stats are well in line with his expected stats:

.270 AVG .273 xAVG

.523 SLG, .522 xSLG

and if he can steal six more bags, he has 14 this season, he’ll go 20-20.

Eugenio Suárez – (9.9 P/G)

Suárez has brought his September K% down to 17.9% compared to 26.5% on the season. In the month, he’s hit five home runs and has a .441 batting average. He’s also slugging .941 in September.

Bailey Ober – (7.4 P/IP)

On August 26th against the Braves, Ober gave up nine earned runs in two innings. But, in his most recent two starts, against the Royals and the Blue Jays, Ober has done a little better. In those two starts, he struck out a combined 15 batters and only gave up two hits. He’s had a home run problem this season that doesn’t play well in Ottoneu points leagues, but Ober does offer strikeout potential.

Kyle Gibson – (7.4 P/IP)

Bench or drop Kyle Gibson and he’s going to strike out nine batters like he did in his most recent start. That tied a season high. He has posted his highest BB% since the 2020 season, but his K% is also the highest it’s been since 2019.