Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 3rd, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

LaMonte Wade Jr. – 53 current auctions

At 6.85 P/G, he’s been hit by a pitch three times already this season and that can sneakily bring up points totals, but he’s also walked 21 times in 98 plate appearances and so can that. For context, he walked 26 times in 251 plate appearances in 2022. While Wade has been known for a good eye, he’s swinging outside of the zone at a near-career-low 17.8%. All of those walks are due to a career-low overall swing rate of 33.9%, but when he has been swinging and making contact, it’s been good. He’s been doing damage on fastballs (4.8 Pitch Info pVal) and his overall barrel rate is a solid 16.4% (Brls/BBE%). Wade will cool off. Don’t expect him to sustain a 24.0% HR/FB rate, 11.4% was the 2022 MLB average, but he has been batting in the lead-off spot for most of the season and is certainly worth adding to rosters if that continues.

Vince Velasquez – 34 current auctions

Should we believe in Vince Velasquez? Just yesterday Dan Szymborski sought out an answer to that same question as it pertained to the Pirates team overall. If you like to compare actual stats with expected stats to evaluate performance, then the answer is no. Velasquez is running a 3.06 ERA vs. a 3.85 xERA and a 3.82 FIP vs. a 4.64 xFIP. That’s still not bad if you consider his career average ERA of 4.85. So, if his ERA is under what he typically has put up, what is different? His slider is different. It’s being thrown significantly more often:

Someone told him to stop throwing his curveball and to start throwing his slider and he listened. So far this year, the pitch has garnered a 15.5% swinging strike rate (PitcherList), above the league average of 15.1%. In this case, a performance change has matched up with an approach change and the results are showing.

Matt Strahm – 30 current auctions

12.34 K/9?! Strahm has been excellent in 2023 holding a 2.31 ERA and doing it with a decreased fastball velocity. He’s had a lot of success with three fastballs (four-seamer, cutter, sinker) and a slider, keeping batters on their toes. But, like so many pitchers who are having success this season, his BABIP is unsustainably low at .213 and so is his LOB% of 81.4%. What’s different about Strahm? He added the cutter and removed the changeup and curveball. So far, that combination is really working for him but it will take a few more starts before I’m bought in that the change is what is fueling the results.

Edward Olivares –  31 current auctions

The 27-year-old outfielder was rolling on a nine-game hit streak before last night’s game. His slash line of .289/.344/.482 is impressive to start the year and his xBA and xSLG are higher than his actuals. He’s swinging out of the zone less often and in the zone more often while putting the ball in the air a career-high 40.9% of the time. With a 10.6% barrel rate, Olivares is catching the attention of many fantasy managers. He’s projected to hit between six and eight home runs but in 65 games. As of now, there aren’t many outfielders clearly ready to challenge his spot in the lineup and he’s hit second and fourth a few times this season.

Louie Varland – 90 current auctions

Varland’s first start of the year came with three home runs, but eight strikeouts. He throws a fastball/changeup/slider combination and as was written in Jeff Zimmerman’s most recent “Big Kid Adds”, his stuff has serious potential if it can play in the big leagues. Just take a look at Zimmerman’s big league comps and you’ll certainly be checking in to see if he’s still available in your league. He’s geared up and ready to start today (5/3) for the Twins and it will give us a little more insight into his progression from last season’s 3.81 ERA in 26 IP.

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Roster Adds

Drew Smyly, Add% Change (7 Days) – 44.23%

In six starts this season, Smyly has a 2.83 ERA and a 2.38 xERA. A decreased BB/9 of 1.54 compared to a 2.74 career mark has helped, but he has also simply started throwing his best pitch, the curveball, more often:

Throwing a curveball nearly 50% of the time puts off some real Rich Hill vibes and the 33-year-old Smyly is landing the pitch for a strike 64.8% (PitcherList) of the time (58.9% MLB Avg). How long can that last? It’s hard to say. But Smyly is basically only throwing a sinker or a curveball and that is a little scary. What happens if the curveball isn’t working? He’ll have to rely on a 88 MPH cutter or a 92 MPH sinker. I love the hook just as much as the next person but I don’t know that I believe he can just keep hucking it in there while sustaining a .240 BABIP and a 6.5% HR/FB rate.

Tyler Wells, Add% Change (7 Days) – 33.97%

Is Wells the fifth starter in the O’s rotation? That will depend on how he pitches in his next few starts and whether or not the brass wants to give Cole Irvin another shot. That is especially thought-provoking when you consider the fact that the birds do not have a lefty in their rotation. D.L. Hall could become a starter, Irvin could be promoted, and Bruce Zimmermann or Drew Rom could start catching fire in AAA. However, none of that will matter if Wells continues to show out. His tiny 0.93 BB/9 is great and his fastball/changeup combo has worked so far. But, his .187 BABIP won’t last and his xERA of 3.18 is already telling a story when compared to his ERA of 2.79.

Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트, Add% Change (7 Days) – 25.32%

Five home runs on the year and Bethancourt is picking up where he left off in the second half of last season where he hit six. While he’s only batting .250, his .364 wOBA is under his .374 xwOBA and his average exit velocity (93.1 MPH) is above his 89.2 career average. He is batting in the bottom half of the order but in a potent offense. In two catcher leagues, he’s a great addition.

Mauricio Dubón, Add% Change (7 Days) – 28.52%

Who’s the better option to fill in for Altuve, Dubón, or David Hensley? By batting average, the answer is Dubón. He’s hitting .317 to Hensley’s .143 and Dusty Baker has placed Dubón in the leadoff spot in his last 15 appearances. Batting at the top of the Astros order should be enough to entice an add, but bring in his three stolen bases and 20 runs scored and you have a real contributor. Yet his productivity has come from a 50.5% ground ball rate and a .348 BABIP. That means he’s almost certain to regress. There is nothing in his plate discipline metrics that would indicate a change in approach and once Altuve is healthy, Dubón’s hot streak will need to find another position.

Nate Pearson, Add% Change (7 Days) – 28.20%

A 12.00 K/9 is exciting. Ok, Pearson has only thrown three innings, but still. Many people are excited about Pearson’s return to action after battling so many injuries over the years. He was recalled to join the big-league club on April 24th and his fastball has been pushing a 98 MPH average. He’s featuring the pitch 80% of the time and has a slider/curveball combination to back it up. Many fingers are crossed that the 26-year-old righty stays healthy and those same fingers are crossed in hopes that he can move up the pecking order from middle reliever to a reliever with opportunities for holds and saves. If he can maintain anywhere near the over 20% swinging strike rates he’s displayed on both the fastball and the curveball as he throws more innings, he’ll have a good shot at doing so.

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Hot Performers

Connor Wong has played over 20 games as the Red Sox catcher and has batted .290, but with a .366 BABIP. He’s striking out 26.1% of the time and is likely in a platoon split with Reese McGuire. Luke Raley has found some playing time in Tampa Bay’s outfield, has a scary 34.3% K%, but has hit four home runs in his last five games. Miguel Andujar has only played in three games but has hit two home runs. He is likely in a platoon role but could be an interesting veteran hitter to pay attention to if he starts getting more at-bats. Nick Senzel’s walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 17.4% are trending in the right direction. Health has always been an issue for Senzel, but he may just be the everyday third baseman if he can stay in the lineup.

Caleb Ferguson has four holds in his last four appearances and has only allowed two runs all season. He could be a great pickup for leagues that count holds. Another Dodger, Brusdar Graterol, is showing flashes of a return to fantasy relevance as he’s picked up two holds and two saves on the year. Roster Resource now pegs him as a co-closer. Robert Stephenson is another reliever who has been accumulating holds, specifically six in his last six appearances. He’s the setup man behind closer David Bednar. Lastly, Danny Coulombe is a Baltimore reliever with an impressive 11.81 K/9 and a teeny 0.84 ERA. He’s probably a middle reliever with an upside for wins and holds.