Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 31st, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Ben Joyce – 98 current auctions

Joyce had his MLB debut against the White Sox on Monday and recorded a hold. He faced four batters, gave up one hit, and struck out two. Roster Resource currently has him slated as a middle-reliever in the Angels pen. I don’t think he’ll be much of a contributing factor this season, but perhaps he’ll work his way into a more consistent role in the majors. He did not make the 2022 FanGraphs Top 41 Prospects for LA, but perhaps he’ll sneak in this year. TBD.

Zach McKinstry – 85 current auctions

Working as a utility man for the Tigers (2B/SS/3B/OF) the 28-year-old left-handed hitter has a triple slash line of .318/.478/.439 in the month of May. Compare that with a career .232/.311/.401 and you could hypothesize that regression will come. His season .351 BABIP supports that hypothesis. His 2023 O-Swing% (24.8%) is lower than his career 29.2% and his 2023 Z-Swing% (63.9%) is higher than his career 61.3%. If he can continue to work that plate discipline in the right direction while remaining in the lineup, he could really contribute to a fantasy team in need of a utility player. Oh, one more thing. He’s stolen 10 bases so far in 2023, doubling most projections.

AJ Smith-Shawver – 39 current auctions

Here’s some news from MLB Trade Rumors:

“The Braves announced that they have selected the contract of pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver and designated left-hander Lucas Luetge for assignment in a corresponding move.”

This, coupled with a promotion from A+, to AA, to AAA led to some interest in the fantasy world and now those who placed bids on Smith-Shawver are being treated to a call-up. He joined the team on Tuesday night and will likely make an appearance out of the bullpen. Smith-Shawver has a lot of potential, but he’s only 20 years old and wild. In 68 innings in A+ this year he posted a 2.57 BB/9. On the flip side, he posted a 14.79 K/9 and that would explain his quick promotion. He’s probably a great addition for re-builders or any team looking to stash a prospect, just don’t let the flashy K stats get you overexcited and pay too much.

Leody Taveras – 37 current auctions

The 24-year-old Texas center fielder has been en llamas in the month of May. First, his BABIP is a ca-razy .464, but he’s also ca-razy fast. His statcast Sprint Speed percentile ranks 95th, so he’s been legging out a lot of singles. That sells him short, however, as he’s hit two home runs, six doubles, and close to .400 (.395) this month! Yes, he’s been getting lucky, but he’s also displaying skills changes. His K% and BB% are both headed in the right direction:

If you want more skills changes to water down the BABIP luck, his K%/BB% changes are being fueled by a career-low O-Swing%, SwStr%, and CStr% along with a career-high Z-Swing%. The Prospect Graduation TLDR on his player page reads:

“a lack of power and patience limits his offensive potential.”

and it seems that Taveras has started to improve in both of those areas.

Robbie Ray – 28 current auctions

The natural fluctuation of cutting and adding currently finds itself in at the point where re-building or buy-low managers are looking to add Ray as a stash. He underwent Tommy John surgery on May 3rd and won’t be back this season and likely not until well into the 2024 season.

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Roster Adds

Owen Miller, Add% Change (7 Days) – 27.88 %

Miller has had a really good year so far playing all over the diamond for the Brewers, but recently finding a groove at third base. He’s hitting .330 and slugging .513. As Jeff Zimmerman has already pointed out, Miller has “has cut his strikeout rate for the second year in a row (27% to 20% to 15%)” which is really good. There’s not a whole lot of change in his batted ball profile and his BABIP is a high .366. There are also two injured in-fielders in Milwaukee who likely won’t be splitting time named Luis Urías and Willy Adames.

Miguel Castro, Add% Change (7 Days) – 27.24%

Four saves, two wins, and two holds in his last 8.1 innings has Castro looking pretty valuable. He also recorded ten strikeouts in those 8.1 innings. His xERA (2.81) is not that much higher than his ERA (2.22) and Roster Resource has him splitting the closer role with Andrew Chafin.

Marcell Ozuna, Add% Change (7 Days) – 22.76%

Making only two appearances in left field this season, Ozuna has spent the large majority of his time as the DH in Atlanta. His May slash line has been excellent (.310/.375/.655) and he’s hit nine home runs and three doubles in that time frame. He’s almost certainly safe as the DH while he’s performing like this. Ozuna’s March/April batting average was .085 in 67 plate appearances. He’s likely one of the most improved players from the first to the second month of the season and it has a lot to do with finding a rhythm and hitting the ball hard.

Emmet Sheehan, Add% Change (7 Days) – 21.15%

The 23-year-old right-handed Dodgers prospect has a 15.55 K/9 in 44 AA innings this season. In good prospect-pitching fashion, he’s paired that impressive mark with a 3.68 BB/9. He’s ranked as the number 17 Dodger prospect by Eric Longenhagen this year. Check out David Laurila’s interview with Sheehan back in August and consider adding him as a prospect stash.

Michael Kopech, Add% Change (7 Days) – 19.55%

I’ll admit it, I added Kopech after seeing his two starts where he went 8 IP and 7 IP recording a combined 19 strikeouts, one walk, and a 0.00 ERA. “He’s back!”, I screamed. “I’ll add him!”, I remarked. Then, in his latest start, he gave up two home runs, four earned runs, and walked two. He did record 10 strikeouts and I desperately need them. While his fastball and his slider just aren’t consistently performing in 2023, he’s shown that he can get them back. Starting him will be a gamble until he starts to show more consistent results.

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Hot Performers

Sadly, Riley Greene (9.3 P/G) was removed from the game on Tuesday night due to a leg injury and will require further evaluation. He’s been hitting .296/.362/.443 in 224 plate appearances this year with five home runs and stolen six bases too. With a 127 wRC+, Greene has instilled himself as the everyday center fielder in Detroit and just seems to be doing nothing but hitting. Josh Jung (10.2 P/G) has hit four home runs and three doubles with a .444 batting average in his last nine games. He’s playing as the everyday third baseman in Texas. Matt McLain (9.3 P/G) is another young prospect who is putting together playing time (13 games) and mashing (.357/.429/.554). He’s played all of his games at shortstop.

Nathan Eovaldi (6.1 P/IP) has only given up four runs in his last 46.2 innings while striking out 39. His season ERA is at 2.42 but his xERA is closer to 3.00. His fastball velocity has been increasing over last year’s mark and his splitter has really been working, good for an 8.1 pVal (PitchInfo). Marcus Stroman (5.5 P/IP) has been looking great in his last few starts and while nothing has changed much in his profile, besides throwing the changeup slightly less and the slider slightly more, his sinker has been performing at a 9.2 pVal (PitchInfo). His .226 BABIP is low but his xERA (3.72) is over one point higher than his actual ERA (2.59). Mitch Keller (5.7 P/IP) continues his breakout as he has recorded at least eight strikeouts in his last six appearances. Two things to note; his fastball velocity decreased over his last three starts and he’s given up three home runs in his last two starts.