Ottoneu Hot Right Now: June 7th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Luis García – 65 current auctions

Back in mid-May, fellow Ottoneu manager Jake Mailhot wrote an article about García’s plate discipline changes and potential for power. García has continued to maintain a significantly lower K% (13%) than in years past, but he’s only walking 5.8% of the time. Perhaps managers are racing to auction because of the back-to-back homers García hit on May 31st and June 1st, hoping that power has found it’s way to the 23-year-old’s bat. While the results haven’t yet shown in his P/G mark, 4.23 in 2023, his hard-hit rate, slugging percentage, and wOBA are all trending in the right direction:

Luis Garcia Rolling wOBA/SLG/Hard%

It makes sense that his expected stats are all higher than his actuals:

AVG: .267 xAVG: .282

SLG: .388 xSLG: .450

wOBA: .303 xwOBA: .334

Reese Olson – 35 current auctions

Sometimes all you need is a “Prospects TLDR” to get you started:

Olson’s plus secondary stuff helps make him a potential starter even though he doesn’t throw strikes with his fastball.

The 23-year-old righty made his major league debut on June 2nd and threw five solid innings. He struck out six, walked only one, and gave up two earned runs but on only two hits. This may not be a typical line for Olson in his early career however as his BB/9 in 26.2 AAA innings this season was a high 5.40. But, on a Tigers team with a long list of injured starting pitchers, Olson could stick around. He’s a great add for re-builders or anyone looking to stack prospects.

Grant Anderson – 29 current auctions

Another young pitcher making appearances is sparking auctions in Ottoneu leagues. In Anderson’s debut, he threw 2.2 innings in relief and struck out seven! He only gave up one hit. This is not coming out of nowhere as he maintained a K/9 above 11.0 in AA and AAA in 2022 and a K/9 above 12.0 in AA and AAA in 2023. In just a short period of time, Anderson has worked his way into “Setup Man” status in the Rangers pen, according to Roster Resource. That’s good for holds and the fill-in save here and there, which is good for Ottoneu points leagues.

Justin Lawrence – 37 current auctions

Now the closer in Colorado, Lawrence is worth adding if you need saves and don’t care too much about your ratios. With a K/9 of 9.74 and a BB/9 of 3.34, Lawrence is the type of closer who could either go on a hot streak of adding saves to your totals or boost your WHIP and ERA measures in a single game. He relies on a two-pitch (sinker/slider) mix and while his slider has an above-average CSW% of 37.8% (29.4% MLB average, PitcherList), his sinker has been hit for a .327 average in 2023.

Jonny Deluca – 28 current auctions

Adding a Dodgers prospect to your fantasy team is rarely a bad idea. The 24-year-old right-handed outfielder has hit 14 home runs and stolen 12 bags in the minors this season (AA/AAA). He was batting .315 in AAA before being called up. He made it to number 25 on Eric Longenhagen’s Dodger Top 51 Prospect List earlier this year and here’s a little snippet from that article:

[Deluca] is now more of a well-rounded, righty-hitting outfield prospect with a fair blend of contact and power, both of which are slightly undercut by his swing decisions…with Los Angeles’ outfield situation in flux, he’s likely to debut at some point in 2023.

That last part rang true to start the week as Deluca was recalled from the minors but has yet to make his debut.

Roster Adds

Bryan Woo, Add% Change (7 Days) – 43.59%

Woo made his major league debut on June 3rd and many see the potential in the 23-year-old righty. It was reported that Woo will be given the chance to make more appearances:

But Woo never even pitched in AAA and one would have to imagine he’ll spend some time there at some point this season. Impressive walk and strikeout rates in the minors have gotten many excited, but Woo did not have a great debut, giving up six earned runs on seven hits. We’ll just have to wait and see how Woo performs in the big leagues and hopefully, he’ll be given a few more chances.

Jose Alexander Siri, Add% Change (7 Days) – 19.55%

Siri has been on a tear since mid-May, hitting seven home runs and slugging .731. His K% in that time period was a scary 33.9% and that fits with his career 33.3%. So, he’s literally striking out a third of the time, but he has already met his home run projections for the year. If you need speed and power and don’t mind sacrificing AVG or OBP stats to get there, Siri is your man.

Ben Lively 라이블리, Add% Change (7 Days) – 17.62%

The 31-year-old right-handed journeyman has a 3.03 ERA in four games started for the Reds in 2023. He’s given up five home runs in that time, good for a 1.52 HR/9, but he is limiting hard contact at 23.8% compared to the league average of 32.0%. Lively added a cutter to his repertoire but has also begun throwing an effective slider more often. While the Reds have a lot of prospective pitchers waiting in the wings, they also have a lot of injured arms. Lively currently holds the four spot in the rotation and could maintain that as the Reds look to get back to a .500 winning percentage.

Patrick Bailey, Add% Change (7 Days) – 12.5%

Baily had a huge game last night in Colorado going 3 for 5 with two doubles and a triple. Take that Prospect TLDR:

The unathletic Bailey is a good switch-hitter at a premium position.

He’s only played in 15 games, all in the catcher position, but he’s only 24 years old. In his time in the big leagues, he’s striking out 31.6% of the time and he may be overmatched against big-league pitching. Don’t expect Bailey to hang on for long as Joey Bart is close to returning from a groin injury and Blake Sabol has played well so far this season.

Hot Performers

Nick Castellanos has run a .464/.484/.750 slash line in the past seven days while also running a .478 BABIP. There’s certainly some luck there, but he has displayed more patience at the plate, lowering his O-Swing% and SwStr% over the past few weeks. Luis Arraez is amazing and everyone should be paying attention to the incredible showcase of hitting he is putting together this season. He’s not hitting home runs, but he is hitting everything else. Alex Bregman has started to get the bat going as he hit .219 in Mar/Apr, .271 in May, and now .300 so far in June. He has done it by hitting for more power with an increased hard-hit rate.

What’s new with Zac Gallen? Nothing much according to Michael Bauman. His strike-out rate has cooled off a bit in his last few starts, but he is giving up very few walks and home runs and if you were to remove his first two starts of the year, he would be good for a 1.99 ERA. Kevin Gausman is right next to Gallen on various leaderboards and is coming off two outings where he threw over 10 strikeouts. Sonny Gray looks excellent on the season so far. But, he has only given up one home run this season and in his last two starts, he has only struck out a combined five hitters. He is putting the ball on the ground at a decent clip, but his expected stats are all significantly higher than his actual stats.

 

 





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