Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 31, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Grant Holmes– 35 current auctions

A resident of the minor leagues since 2014, Holmes can now call himself a big leaguer after 28.1 IP with the Braves. Of those 28.1 IPs, 23.1 of them were in relief. However, on July 29th, the 28-year-old righty made a spot start and only gave up three hits, one run on a home run, and walked zero batters while striking out eight.

His slider (Stuff+: 113) has garnered a SwStr% of 19.5% compared to a 15.5% MLB SP average. His curveball’s SwStr% of 19.4% also exceeds the MLB SP average of 13.3%, and so does his Four-seamer (Stuff+: 83), returning a SwStr% of 12.1% compared to a 10.3% MLB SP average. Those paying close attention to the slew of numbers in those last two sentences might be interested in the difference between Holmes’ swinging strike results and Stuff+. His Zone% and the location of each of his pitches may give us more insight:

Grant Holmes, Baseball Savant Pitch Location

Starting with his four-seamer, Holmes works the edges and keeps the ball in and around the zone. That may or may not work in the long run, but when he utilizes the low location of his curveball, slider, and (rarely) changeup, hitters are kept on their toes. His cutter has also been located well, jamming lefties.

Currently, Holmes is listed as the fifth starter in the Braves rotation by RosterResource with Bryce Elder hanging on in the “Spot” location, which signifies that we don’t know what will happen just yet. He will likely bounce back and forth between rotation and bullpen, but for now, Holmes should make another start on Sunday against the Miami Marlins.

Victor Robles – 32 current auctions

It happens nearly every time I write just about anything that the big dog Jeff Zimmerman has already written it:

Who saw the Robles breaking out in all places, Seattle, where hitters go to die? With the Mariners, the 27-year-old is hitting .364/.444/.564 with 2 HR and 8 SB in 65 PA. A .419 BABIP helps but so does dropping your strikeout rate from 27% to 15%. I might be buying too much in the hype.

His points per game mark currently sits at 4.65 and the highest full-season mark he’s ever accomplished was 4.61 in 2018 (only 21 games). While he has shown improvements in key areas (decreased K%), it’s unlikely that he’ll keep this momentum going through the rest of the season.

WARNING, Robles is considered day-to-day with a hip injury and that may be a bucket of cold water on a hot streak.

Gavin Lux – 27 current auctions

Lux is currently on a five-game hit streak and slashing .297/.378/.547 in July. In the month, his BB% has jumped to 10.8% and his ISO to .250 (MLB AVG: .156). He has been running a high .349 BABIP, but his Z-Contact has jumped above average. In each month of the season starting in May, Lux has increased both his Pull% and his HardHit%. What’s most important, Lux has improved his ability to hit left-handed pitchers throughout the season:

May: 78 PA, .247/.295/.384

June: 80 PA, .237/.275/.316

July: 74 PA, .297/.378/.547

The Dodgers picked up Tommy Edman, who is yet to play a game this season due to a wrist injury, at the trade deadline but that shouldn’t impact Lux anytime soon.

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Roster Adds

Tyler Fitzgerald – Add% Change (7 Days) – 76.8%

The 26-year-old SS/OF now has 46 games with the Giants under his belt. Fitzgerald is slashing .308/.371/.617 with seven stolen bases and nine home runs this season. His Z-Contact% is below average (76.9%), but his 11.3% barrel rate makes up for it as when he does make contact, it is solid. He backs that up with a 35% HardHit%. Have you seen this profile before? Along with those great batted ball metrics comes a K% above 30%. The man has power, but he also has a lot of swing-and-miss. RosterResource lists Fitzgerald as the everyday SS for the Giants, but Casey Schmitt and Marco Luciano both can play the position. Of the three, the “Def” statistic gives Fitzergerald a clear edge at the position.

JJ Wetherholt – Add% Change (7 Days) – 27.0%

Here is a snippet from the The Board about the Cardinals first-round pick in the 2024 draft:

Wetherholt is a great prospect because he rakes. His swing often has huge finish through contact. A big bat wrap gives him a very aggressive angle of attack with the barrel and feel for oppo contact saves him when he’s a little late, which was more common in 2024, as he was less apt to pull the baseball than in 2023. His contact rates (90-93% in-zone the last two years) sure make it seem like this swing works. Even if it’s a little long, Wetherholt’s build is compact enough to keep his swing functionally short. He’s a fantastic prospect on par with a top five pick in a typical draft

Wetherholt was listed as Eric Longenhagen’s top pick in the draft and an Ottoneu team looking to add future pieces should take advantage as long as they’re not letting draft hype bring the price up.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Tyler O’Neill – (12.0 P/G)

After an incredible start to the season, a really tough May, and a bounceback June, O’Neill is slashing .310/.366/.595 in July. So much of his success comes down to plate discipline and while he’s riding a batted ball high right now, his K% remains high and his BB% has been on the decline since the start of the season. Regardless, swinging the bat is what accumulates stats for O’Neill and in his last 14 games, he’s hit four doubles, six home runs and batted in 15.

Josh Bell – (10.6 P/G)

Bell was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks at the deadline and he’ll likely slot into the first base position replacing Christian Walker who landed on the IL with a strained oblique. He’s down to 4.24 P/G on the year, but just last season he finished with a 5.56 mark. His career average HardHit% is 41.8% and this season, he has slowly been making his way back up to that mark. It seems he may have found something in July:

HardHit% Monthly Splits:

Mar/Apr: 29.7% -> May: 32.1% -> June: 28.0% -> July: 37.3%

Tyler Anderson – (6.7 P/IP)

In his last start, Anderson went seven strong innings and collected 10 strikeouts. As it goes with pitchers who go deep into the game and limit home runs, Anderson earned fantasy managers in Ottoneu points leagues a sack of gold coins. He is, however, running a large differential between his 2.96 ERA and his 4.17 xERA.

Tyler Phillips – (6.5 P/IP)

Three starts on the year for the 26-year-old righty have brought back a 1.40 ERA and in his latest start, he went the distance of nine innings while giving up only four hits and one walk. This won’t be the norm. His 6.84 K/9 doesn’t excite and while he does seem to have good command (0.72 BB/9), it’s only a matter of time before hitters pick up on that. In his first start, he walked zero batters but gave up two home runs.