Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 30th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Hunter Goodman – 92 current auctions

Listing Goodman as the number nine prospect in the Rockies system in June, Eric Longenhagen wrote:

Goodman has some of the best power in the minors, approaching 70-grade raw. He’s more apt to get to that power against breaking balls that catch the plate than any other pitch type, and I expect big league pitchers will try to blow velocity past him at the letters, where he tends to expand the zone.

Goodman made his Major League debut on Sunday against the Orioles and went two for four with a run and an RBI. In just three games and 11 at-bats, Goodman has five hits, two doubles, and a triple. His power really showed at AA this season when he hit 25 home runs in 91 games. He carried that power into AAA by hitting another nine home runs in only 15 games. A big issue with his game, like so many young power hitters, is that he doesn’t walk and he strikes out often. His K% sat around 25% during his time in AA and AAA and in his short time in the big leagues, it’s at 33.3%. He’ll probably be a feast-or-famine type of player in fantasy leagues, but like Longenhagen wrote:

There’s enough playable power here for Goodman to be a good role player even though he’s a 30 defender whose hit tool will probably also be well below average.

Jordan Wicks – 62 current auctions

Nine strikeouts in a major league debut will always boost a pitcher’s fantasy hype, but Wicks has not come out of nowhere as he was the number four prospect in the Cubs’ early July assessment here on FanGraphs. Longenhagen wrote:

Lefties with plus changeups and plus command almost always tend to carve out a role at the back of a rotation, and he has been tracking like a no. 4/5 starter…

He recorded a 16.3% swinging strike rate (10.8% 2023 average among qualified starters) and Longenhagen wrote, “Neither of Wicks’ slower breakers is especially nasty, but again, his command helps them shine”, which may mean we shouldn’t expect that mark to be sustainable. The 23-year-old is now listed as the number three starter in the Cubs rotation by RosterResource.

Parker Meadows – 37 current auctions

Another prospect in high demand is the number six prospect in the Tigers organization who “projects as the strong side of a platoon across the whole outfield, [with] a source of power and speed on offense made somewhat frustrating by his strikeouts.” In only seven MLB games he has proven that statement true as he has one home run, one stolen base, and 10 strikeouts. With many of the prospects who profile as power hitters who strike out a lot, it typically comes down to playing time in the early stages. Can they stay in the lineup and work through the challenges of hitting major-league pitching? Jeff Zimmerman, in his Week 23 Waiver Wire Report wrote:

It’s tough to ignore Meadows because in 17 PA, he has a .308 AVG (.429 BABIP), 23% BB% (previous high is 11%), and 1.163 OPS. With his ability to play a good center field, he will get a decent run to show what he can do in the majors (four straight starts in center).

Like Goodman, I would gladly take Meadows in the $1-$2 range, but end-of-season call-up prospect hype is bringing the price up way too much as they both sit in the $3-$4 (Median) range already.

Ryan Pepiot – 20 current auctions

The 26-year-old Dodgers righty was recalled from AAA and appeared out of the bullpen on August 19th and August 24th for a combined nine innings. In each game, he gave up three hits and one run, and in his most recent appearance gave up a home run. In 2022, Pepiot started seven games for the Dodgers and appeared in relief twice. While he recorded an impressive 10.40 K/9, he also walked batters 6.69 times per nine innings and gave up a home run and a half (1.49 HR/9). His 2022 ERA (3.47) slid under his xERA (4.31), but he earned three wins playing for the Dodgers. In six 2023 AAA starts, Pepiot lowered his BB/9 big time, down to 1.99, but his HR/9 remained nearly the same. The Sleeper and the Bust Pod conducted a little analysis of Pepiot (~33:00) and guest Nick Pollack explained how he was impressed with Pepiot’s changeup. Pepiot holds value simply as a pitcher for the Dodgers who could fall in line for wins, but he also has plenty of upside.

Danny Coulombe – 20 current auctions

With the sad, sad news of Orioles closer Félix Bautista’s UCL injury, Coulombe becomes an interesting pick-up in all formats. Coulombe’s 2023 K/9 is a career-high 11.02 and he has (almost) always maintained a low HR/9. He has four wins on the season and two saves, which proves his ability to work in high leverage for a winning team. RosterResource lists him as a setup man next in line to the closer role behind Yennier Cano, but it’s possible that becomes a committee as the O’s look to give Cano a little more rest as they prepare for the playoffs. Either way, Coulombe is a great add for anyone chasing wins and saves.

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Roster Adds

Wilyer Abreu – Add% Change (7 Days) – 24.6%

The Red Sox called up their number 18 prospect, a 24-year-old outfielder with an intriguing profile. His walk rate through minor league levels (2022 AA: 21.4%, 2023 AA: 19.0%, 2023 AAA: 16.3%) is a standout and if he can continue to showcase such discipline in the majors, he may have a quick rise. Combine that with his power, he hit 22 home runs in 86 AAA games this season, and speed (23 2022 AA SB) and you’ve got a lot of potential all in one player.

Everson Pereira – Add% Change (7 Days) – 21.4%

Yikes. Pereira, a 22-year-old outfielder listed as the Yankees’ fourth-best prospect has looked very overmatched in his first eight games in the big leagues. He has struck out 41.9% of the time, is hitting .107, and walking only 9.7% of the time. While he may be a good $1 stash for teams rebuilding, he’s not at the point where he’s contributing.

Osleivis Basabe – Add% Change (7 Days) – 20.76%

Basabe has filled the shortstop position for the Rays and has hit .273 in 14 games. He hit over .300 at every level except AAA where he hit .296 and limited strikeouts along the way. He’s the Rays’ eighth-best prospect with “fantastic hand-eye coordination and bat control”, but he is “[a]lmost completely lacking over-the-fence power (he has just eight career homers in four seasons)”. That kind of profile might not play in Ottoneu points leagues but showcased base-stealing ability in AA and AAA (30 SB combined) might play in roto formats.

Brandon Williamson – Add% Change (7 Days) – 13.74%

The 25-year-old lefty graduated with the following prospect snippet:

Graduation TLDR: Projected as a no. 4/5 starter, Williamson’s bat-missing ability started to dwindle once he reached Triple-A, a trend that continued during his rookie season.

He wasn’t able to bring his 2022 AAA BB/9 (6.02) down in 2023 (5.29), but was promoted anyways and somehow has a 2023 MLB BB/9 of 3.01. In nearly 100 IP with the Reds in 2023, Williamson has a 4.20 ERA (4.93 xERA) and has recorded four wins. RosterResource lists him as the number four starter in the Reds’ rotation. His arsenal is interesting as his cutter is the only offering with a positive PitchInfo Pval, but it’s a high positive value at 10.2 and he throws it nearly 30% of the time. It’s a pitch to keep an eye on, but as far as statcast’s horizontal movement measures against the average go, it’s basically average. Williamson could be a sneaky pickup in Ottoneu leagues this year for $1 if he sticks in the rotation next season.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Adam Duvall (11.5 P/G)

After an incredible start to the season that was stopped in its tracks by injury, Duvall has been getting hot again. In his last 14 games, he has hit .357 with seven home runs and slugging .821.

Teoscar Hernández (9.2 P/G)

Hernandez goes through slumps and hot streaks often throughout the course of a season and right now, he’s hot. In his last 14 games, he has hit .433 with five home runs while slugging .783.

Eury Pérez (8.9 P/IP)

Back with the big league club, Pérez has 17 total strikeouts across his last two starts. He has given up no earned runs and only one walk in those two games. The 20-year-old righty has been incredibly impressive all season long, but likely remains limited in usage by the club. His most recent two starts were each for six innings though and if the Marlins continue to let him start, he may come close to finishing the year around 100 IP with a sub 3.00 ERA.

Mike Clevinger (6.0 P/IP)

Right before being placed on waivers by the White Sox, Clevinger recorded a 10-strikeout game. He did give up one earned run off of only one hit, but he brought his season ERA down to 3.32. His slider and changeup have both performed well this season, producing PitchInfo pVals of over three. As he was approaching only 100 IP this season, you have to imagine a big league club will seek to add him off of waivers to help bolster a rotation before the playoffs.