Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 5th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Adam Duvall – 84 current auctions

Adam Duvall: @MLB A.L. Player of the Week ✅#MLBTheShow 🔋#Supercharged🔋to a 9️⃣9️⃣ OVR for 7 days! ✅#MLBTheShowSC #DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/yF3jnpYBOu

— MLB The Show (@MLBTheShow) April 3, 2023

Not only has Adam Duvall been auctioned at a high rate in Ottoneu leagues, he has also been MLB the Show Supercharged!

Does Adam Duvall play center field? Apparently. He was there 43 games last year in Atlanta and 28 games in 2021 between Atlanta and Miami. Playing center field allows Duvall to fit into the Red Sox lineup more often and after reading this from RotoWire News:

“Duvall went 3-for-5 with two doubles, two RBI and two runs scored during Sunday’s win over the Orioles. (4/2/2023)”

Duvall got the attention of fantasy managers. With all projection systems showing over 400 plate appearances and over 20 home runs in 2023, adding Duvall is a no-brainer. Can he outplay Rob Refsnyder and Raimel Tapia to stay in the lineup? My guess is yes.

Will Smith – 52 current auctions

A reliever records a save early in the season and his “added to roster” rates shoot up. That’s what is happening with Will Smith in Ottoneu leagues after he retired all three Phillies batters faced on April 2nd to earn his first save of the season. Right now, Roster Resource shows a shared role situation between Smith and José Leclerc. That’s more promising than if it were showing a crowded committee. Smith is an old vet with 92 saves to his name. Projection systems peg him for an ERA over 4.00 in 2023, but if you just need saves, he’s worth the roster addition.

Mike Clevinger – 52 current auctions

A win with a line like this:

IP 5.0 TBF 23 H 3 ER 0 BB 3 SO 8

is a great way to start the season for the 32-year-old righty starter. It’s likely that Clevinger went undrafted until now in many leagues due to his uncertain playing status. Most projection systems have him around the 4.50 ERA mark and a K/9 mark of around 8. If he can meet his ~140 IP expectations for the White Sox, he could be a nice addition in most formats. Just be wary of his above-average HR/9 expectations in points league formats.

Seth Lugo – 43 current auctions

Is Seth Lugo a starter now? Roster Resource has him as the fifth starter in a six-man rotation. That probably means that only time will tell. Lugo certainly proved that he should be in the rotation with the following line in his first start:

IP 7.0 TBF 25 H 4 ER 1 BB 0 SO 7

The run came from a home run, but seeing a zero next to the BB stat is really nice. Lugo has always had a good BB% (6.6% career, 8.2% 2022 average among all pitchers) but 300 of his 501.2 career innings pitched have come as a reliever (60%), so it may be difficult to accurately project his success as a full-time starter. Regardless, if you pick him up and he ends up falling out of the rotation, you still have a decent reliever on your roster.

Trayce Thompson – 42 current auctions

I drafted Trayce Thompson this season in an Ottoneu league because I liked his points-per-game projection. In the WBC Thompson hit one home run and a double, but with a low .214 average and .353 OBP. Thompson’s playing time will be in question all season long as a righty platoon hitter with both James Outman and David Peralta. Thompson hit .308 against righties and .174 against lefties in 2022. He is hitting the ball hard and started that trend in 2022. His first half hard-hit% of 2022 was 32.5% and his second half was 46.6%. Again, he seems like a good power source to have on your bench as a platoon hitter.

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Roster Adds

NOTE: For many (but not all) of these, I am switching over to 7-day measurements as they are more representative of who is being added to rosters post-draft.

Michael Fulmer, Add% Change (7 Days) – 18.6%

Roster Resource pegs Fulmer as the closer for the Cubs as of now. His first two appearances have not garnered any saves, but he looks like the man to go to in the ninth.

Clarke Schmidt, Add% Change (30 Days) – 76%

The Yankees are in a tough spot with starting pitching injuries to start the season and that, according to Roster Resource, makes Schmidt the number two starter in New York. His first start didn’t go so well, but he’s got the skills/potential to level out with a few more opportunities.

Elehuris Montero, Add% Change (7 Days) – 21.5%

185 plate appearances in 53 games in 2022 led to an above-average .432 slugging percentage on six home runs. He did, however, have a 32.4% strikeout rate and that is a little scary. As of now, he appears to be the third baseman, but his playing time should be monitored as the Rockies have a few corner infield options.

Ji Hwan Bae, Add% Change (7 Days) – 28.2%

The 23-year-old who stole 30 bases in AAA last season and three in the big leagues already has two this season for Pittsburgh. He could be a nice play in OBP leagues as his OBP projections are above the .312 MLB 2022 average.

Joey Wiemer, Add% Change (7 Days) – 20.2%

Finally! I’ve been rostering Wiemer ever since he was the talk of the town in the 2021 Arizona Fall League. I’m looking forward to watching how he does. He’s currently batting ninth and filling the RF spot with Tyrone Taylor on the IL. He’s done a good job so far, accumulating three hits, one of which was a double, in 11 plate appearances. He’s projected to be a speedster with power but may struggle with strikeouts. Adding him for a low price now could lead to big gains in the future.

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Hot Performers

Adam Duvall’s hot start has led to 20.25 pts/game in four games! Catch him if you can. Wander Franco (14.5 pts/game) had some question marks surrounding his health going into the season and hopefully this hot start means he is ready to roll. With a home run and a stolen base already in 2023, Wander is primed for a very solid year. Nolan Gorman has been waiting in the wings for many fantasy managers in keeper leagues and his 13.75 points/game so far may indicate a 2023 breakout. Maybe it’s too early for such a big statement. He may be a platoon hitter, getting most of his opportunities as a DH against left-handed pitchers, but when he plays, he could be a nice points/game guy. Trevor Larnach (11.75 points/game) hit a home run and a triple in 19 plate appearances thus far in 2023. He also is likely a platoon hitter against lefties.