Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 21, 2025
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
- Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Current Auctions
Chandler Simpson – 70 current auctions
You’ve probably heard of Chandler Simpson as the man who stole 104 bases in 2024 across two minor league levels. That speed aided his final slash line to .355/.410/.397 in 110 games. He picked up right where he left off in the minor leagues this season, stole eight bags, and slashed .301/.325/.329 in 17 games. That got him promoted. Now, he’s the Rays’ leadoff man and in his first game, he hit a double, knocked in a run, and scored one himself. Even with the promotion, it’s difficult to project how many games he’ll play in 2025. He’s an outfielder on a team that is currently rostering a healthy Christopher Morel and has an injured Jonny DeLuca and Josh Lowe working on getting healthy. For the time being, Simpson will likely stick around. ATC’s pre-season projection gave Simpson 42 games with a slash line of .266/.310/.304 and 19 stolen bases. He’ll be reliant on BABIP and speed as he has no power to speak of. While the profile is exciting and worthwhile in roto leagues, Simpson is less valuable in points leagues. His current $2 average salary seems appropriate.
Carson Kelly – 50 current auctions
Kelly was covered in last week’s Hot Right Now, and the hot streak continues. Kelly had another two-home run game this week, and his slash line is now at an unreal .419/.578/1.097. So far in 2025, he has a 21.4% barrel rate (MLB AVG: 8.6%), a 60.7% hard-hit rate (MLB AVG: 40.7%), and 50% of all of his flyballs have gone out for home runs. Kelly’s career K% is 20.1%, and so far in 2025, it’s 8.9%. The same huge differential can be found when comparing his career walk rate of 10.1% to 2025’s 26.7%. His 12 walks in 2025 are only two away from the total 14 he accumulated in 52 games played in 2023. Lastly, Kelly’s pull rate has increased in his last three seasons, from 35.1% in 2023 to 41.4% in 2024 to a current 42.9%, and each of his six home runs so far this season has been to his pull side. Everywhere you look, Kelly’s numbers are eye-popping. It would be lazy and disrespectful to simply call it good luck, but it would be irresponsible to claim Kelly is suddenly the best-hitting catcher in the MLB. Things will cool off, but if you can pick Kelly up to ride the wave, then do so. It could fizzle out any day. We’ll see how it plays out, but if Kelly is available in your league, he needs to be added now. He’s collecting 11.82 P/G.
Caleb Durbin – 50 current auctions
As part of the deal that sent Devin Williams to the Yankees, Durbin does not seem like a sure-shot, long-term, big-leaguer. Still, what’s a $1-$2 bid going to do? Last season across three minor league levels, Durbin slashed .275/.388/.451, stole 31 bases, and hit 10 home runs. Before 2024’s Arizona Fall League began, Eric Longenhagen wrote this:
I gave Durbin short shrift last year even after his .353/.456/.588 line in the 2023 Fall League. He had a good 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, including a strong second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is short — really short, he’s 5-foot-6 — but he’s not small; he’s built like a little tank. His compact, stocky build helps keep his swing short and consistently on time to pull the baseball. His quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a guy who slugs under .400 at the big league level, but he was dealing with an injury that typically impacts contact quality for a while after recovery.
In seven big-league plate appearances, Durbin is yet to strike out and is making 90.9% contact with pitches in the zone. That’s a good start. RosterResource has him batting ninth in the Brewers’ order and playing 3B.
Roster Adds
Kameron Misner – Add% Change (7 Days) – 57.8%
The utility outfielder earned a cup of coffee in 2024 and slashed .067/.067/.067 while striking out 66.7% of the time in eight games. Yikes! Now, after 18 games in the 2025 season, Misner is slashing .360/.404/.660 and striking out 15.8% of the time. Things change. He’s showcased an excellent 91.5% zone contact rate and slightly better than average barrel and hard hit rates. The biggest issue is playing time. First, it’s the Rays, which makes it difficult to project playing time. Second, Chandler Simpson, Jake Mangum, and Christopher Morel are all rostered and looking for playing time. Lastly, Josh Lowe and Jonny DeLuca are on the IL, working their way back to healthy status. None of that matters if Misner continues to hit, but he’ll need to improve against lefties to avoid a platoon. He’s only accumulated 10 of his 72 big-league plate appearances against lefties, but has a .111/.200/.444 slash line against them.
Matthew Liberatore – Add% Change (7 Days) – 40.1%
At only 25 years old, Liberatore is a player whose name has been thrown around in fantasy circles for years. Jake Mailhot wrote about the Cardinals’ lefty in his most recent Ottoneu Drip. Here’s part of Jake’s analysis:
The Cardinals moved him back to the rotation to start this year and his first three starts of the season have been fantastic from a peripherals standpoint even if the actual run prevention hasn’t been up to snuff. He’s struck out 18 and walked just one in 18.1 innings and he’s managed to work around the platoon issues that have been a problem for him throughout his career. You can chalk that up to a greater emphasis on his changeup and cutter and better command of his entire repertoire.
Jake presented clear evidence of something that has changed. Even more recent than Jake’s analysis is Nick Pollack’s rundown:
His slider is becoming ole reliable at 40% usage (making it the focus of his approach against both LHB and RHB) and a fantastic 75% strike rate, while the 95 mph four-seamer and sinker were featured well, save for some mistakes I’m still a little sad about. The cutter got involved as well and the changeup is coming along against right-handers.
What more do you need? Liberatore’s current average salary is $3, but you may be able to sneak in for less.
Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers. Players selected are usually rostered at lower levels.
Austin Hays – (12.7 P/G)
Activated from the IL on April 15th, Hays has started the season with something to prove. He has 12 hits in his first 28 at-bats on the season and is working a .364/.391/.773 slash line. With so many platoon players in the Reds’ lineup, there’s no reason Hays should lose playing time as long as he can stay healthy. He’s proven he can hit both lefties and righties in his career, and he’s a solid defender.
Javier Sanoja – (7.2 P/G)
Across two minor league levels in 2024, Sanoja slashed .286/.345/.418 with 17 steals and seven home runs. He didn’t match that slash line in his 2024 cup of coffee (.229/.250/.286), but he did limit his strikeouts (11.1%) and made incredible zone contact (95.0%), though he didn’t barrel up a single ball. That’s mostly what you’ll get out of Sanoja, singles. Still yet to barrel up a ball in 13 big-league games this season, Sanoja is slashing .306/.342/.333 with a .440 BABIP. But, he’s been hot of late, going six for 12 in his last three games.
Tyler Anderson – (7.0 P/IP)
A 13.6% BB%, .157 BABIP, and 96.0% LOB% make Anderson’s 2.08 ERA smoke and mirrors. His 3.27 xERA tends to agree, though under 3.5 is still something to look at. Most of Anderson’s Ottoneu points league success is due to limiting home runs in his last two starts while going deeper into the game.
Colin Rea – (7.0 P/IP)
With increased short-term fastball velocity, Colin Rea has moved into the starting rotation to fill the void created by the Justin Steele injury. His 19.6% K-BB% is much better than the league average of 13.6% among starting pitchers. That is very much due to a tiny 1.8% BB%, but both Rea’s slider and sinker are grading out as above-average pitches by Stuff+. That means Rea is displaying command/control with good stuff and has a spot in the rotation.