Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 10, 2024
The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
- Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Current Auctions
Spencer Turnbull – 97 current auctions
RosterResource lists Turnbull as the fifth member of the Phillies rotation and in two starts across 11 innings, he has earned his keep. His 31.7% K% is way over any mark he has ever posted and two starts are not enough to consider him a new man. He’s running an unsustainably low BABIP of .192. Did anything change in his arsenal? In the short sample of two starts, he’s dropped his four-seamer and slider usage and has added a sweeper. It’s something to watch closely as the sweeper has performed well when measured using Whiff%. His 30.4% statcast Whiff% is ranked 7th best among pitchers who have thrown a sweeper in at least 10 plate appearances.
Justin Slaten – 74 current auctions
Slaten is a 26-year-old right-handed reliever who has struck out 33% of the batters he’s faced while giving up no free passes. These impressive statistics come after only 5.2 innings of work in the major leagues, however, in both AA and AAA last season, he held his K% above 30%. That was backed by swinging strike rates over the reliever major league average, though that’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. Slaten is a reliever with strikeout stuff and though he has earned a save and a hold, he’s likely third in line for regular closing duties.
Cade Smith – 49 current auctions
Listed at number 27 by Eric Longenhagen in his recent Guardians prospect list, Cade Smith is gaining attention as he has given up only one hit in 6.2 innings of big-league relief. In that time, Smith has a 44% strikeout rate. His walk rate is high at 12%, but that only translates to three walks. Longenhagen’s report touched on this:
Smith’s a little too inconsistent to be considered a high-leverage relief prospect, but on pure stuff, he should be a good middle reliever.
RosterResource lists him in the middle of the Guardians pen and at age 24, he’ll likely remain there unless his control gets so dialed in that he starts being utilized in high leverage.
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Roster Adds
Brice Turang – Add% Change (7 Days) – 35.6%
Turang has been off to a hot start running a slash line of .353/.395/.559 and stealing seven bags. Look under the hood and you’ll see an incredibly high .455 BABIP and expected stats far off from his actuals:
AVG: .353 xAVG: .271
SLG: .559 xSLG: .396
wOBA: .412 xwOBA: .320
The only thing that may point to a breakout season, as opposed to good luck in starting the season, is Turang’s increased walk rate. He’s making more contact in the zone and he is swinging less outside of the zone. If those adjustments become more of an approach and he continues to get on base, his stolen base potential could be higher than originally expected.
JJ Bleday – Add% Change (7 Days) – 29.3%
Bleday, like Turang, is a player starting the season on a hot streak. His .333 BABIP is high and his expected stats are lower than his actuals:
AVG: .279 xAVG: .209
SLG: .442 xSLG: .327
wOBA: .331 xwOBA: .252
His zone contact rate is up, but his O-Swing is also up. That’s not a good sign for a player with an approach like Bleday whose major league K% sits at 25%. It’s not a bad idea to pick up Bleday and see where he’s at in a few weeks, but there are too many indications that Bleday has benefited from good luck early in the season.
Shelby Miller – Add% Change (7 Days) – 25.6%
As of this writing, you will find the three saves recorded by Detroit pitchers in 2024 with Jason Foley (two) and Alex Lange (one). Andrew Chafin, Will Vest, and Alex Faedo have each blown a save. Shelby Miller, according to RosterResource is third in line to the closer, Jason Foley, behind Alex Lange. Miller does have one hold and two wins and hasn’t given up a hit in 6.0 innings pitched. Since transitioning to a reliever role, Miller has never been much of a high-leverage arm. But, one could certainly see him getting the chance should he continue to strike out hitters at a 30.0% clip.
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Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.
Tyler O’Neill – (11.6 P/G)
In just nine games, O’Neill has hit five home runs. While his slash line is an unreal .357/.514/.893, his expected stats are also high. He’s walking at a career-high 18.9%, his barrel rate is 22.7% (MLB average is 8.1%), and his zone contact rate is up. O’Neill’s plate discipline supports this stretch of good batted-ball outcomes and will be the area in his game to watch moving forward.
Spencer Steer – (10.6 P/G)
Steer’s three home runs, two stolen bases, and a batting average of .378 have pleased fantasy managers. His expected batting average of .330 suggests this hasn’t been all about luck, though his .393 BABIP does. Still, Steer is fully engrained in the Reds outfield and should be rostered in all formats.
Tanner Houck – (8.0 P/IP)
In 12 IP Houck has not allowed an earned run and has struck out 17. One thing to note is Houck’s increased usage of his splitter. So far this season he has located the pitch extremely well. He’s the fourth man in the Red Sox rotation.
Paul Blackburn– (7.1 P/IP)
In 13 IP Blackburn has seen a slight increase in his fastball velocity (pitch info) at 92.6 MPH. He only has seven strikeouts across two starts but has not yet given up a run.