Ottoneu Cold Right Now: September 18th, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Parker Meadows, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 17.63%

The 23-year-old Tigers outfielder has gone cold after a hot start. In his first 10 games, he went 10 for 34 (.294) with a home run and a stolen base. In his last 10 games, he has gone two for 26 (.077) with zero home runs, but three stolen bases. This is what we should expect from a young hitter who entered the MLB with a career (MiLB) K% in the mid-to-high 20s. I don’t think it’s a reason to drop Meadows in keeper leagues like Ottoneu unless you got all excited and paid too much for him during the hot streak.

Geraldo Perdomo, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.33%

Perdomo is in a slump. He hasn’t had a hit in his last 22 at-bats and only has four walks in that time. He’s been a streaky hitter all season long, but he’s currently in his worst 15-game wOBA dip this season:

Perdomo’s plate discipline statistics are very interesting. He strikes out only 17.1% of the time, makes great in-zone contact, swings outside of the zone less often than average, and has a BABIP near .300. In September, however, his BABIP is a low .111 and his September K% (22.9%) is the highest it’s been month-by-month this season. He has dropped down into the nine spot in the batting order and his playing time is in jeopardy as Jordan Lawlar will start to get more and more time at the SS position.

Jose Siri, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.41%

Sadly it appears that Siri’s 2023 fantasy campaign is over, though he may be able to return from a fractured hand injury for the playoffs. His 25 2023 home runs outperformed every projection system though his 12 stolen bases underperformed every projection system. In addition, the average and on-base percentage marks he posted in 2023 were in line with most projections, but his slugging percentage outperformed. Clearly, Siri developed some unexpected pop in 2023. He finished the regular season with a fantasy-relevant, but not award-winning, slash line of .222/.267/.494.

Lance Lynn, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –6.73%

In his last four starts, Lynn has given up 20 earned runs and nine home runs. His K/9 ratio in those starts was a dismal 2.45 and his BB/9 sat at 3.27. That’s bad. It has been a really wild season for Lynn as his command and strikeout statistics have been all over the place:

Many managers are likely dumping Lynn as they just can’t take the earned runs, especially the home runs in points leagues. However, Lynn is still accumulating wins. Since joining the Dodgers, Lynn has won five games. While his Dodger ERA stands at 4.60, his White Sox ERA stands at 6.47. He will likely get another two, maybe three, starts. One against the Tigers in LA and likely two against the Giants. The velocity on all three of his fastballs was down significantly on August 31, but in his two starts since that date, all three have risen back up to around his average. Certainly, as many have pointed out, his pitch mix has changed since being traded to the Dodgers:

The Tigers have the 28th worst wOBA in the MLB (28th against righties too) and the Giants rank 21st (jump to 20th against righties). Lynn has not been what he was projected to be before the season began in the case of WHIP and ERA, but his strikeout totals, IP, and win predictions were right on the mark:

Michael Lorenzen, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.08%

Lorenzen has made five starts since his August 9th no-hitter. In that time he has a 7.96 ERA and has coughed up eight home runs. His K/9 of 4.85 in his last five starts is lower than his season average of 6.48 and his recent BB/9 of 3.81 is high compared to a 2.60 season average. His fastball velocities look stable, but his off-speed pitches have jumped in velocity in recent games. Perhaps the Phillies are tinkering with his mix and approach some, but even more problematic is the fact that the Phillies are planning to utilize Lorenzen in a relief role in their upcoming matchup with Atlanta. I’m not sure what that means for the future and if it’s a good idea to tell a team like Atlanta their plans way ahead of time, but it’s probably clear that Lorenzen won’t be much fantasy help for the rest of the season.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Adam Duvall,  -2.00 P/G:

Duval is hitting .151 in his last 14 games, but he has hit three home runs and walked four times. His slugging and wOBA are dipping below average currently and time is ticking on the 2023 season.

Whit Merrifield,  -0.66 P/G:

In his last 14 games, Merrifield is batting .204 with 10 strikeouts. He has stolen two bags in that time but hasn’t hit a home run. His K% is on the rise and his wOBA is on the decline:

MacKenzie Gore,  -5.25 P/IP:

Gore was placed on the IL with blisters a little over a week ago as of this writing. He may make one last start, but that is not a guarantee as the Nationals have no reason to tack on more workload to the 24-year-old’s season. Gore threw a career-high 136.1 IP this season, increased his major-league K/9, decreased his major-league BB/9, and posted seven wins with a 4.42 ERA. While there’s no reason to hold on for this season, Gore certainly has long-term potential and shouldn’t be dropped if he’s rostered for a reasonable price.

Nathan Eovaldi,  -2.57 P/IP:

Since his return from injury, Eovaldi has not looked good. He has posted a 7.71 ERA and a 7.71 BB/9. He’s also given up three home runs. While his K/9 in that time (9.0) is better than his season 8.13, he’s given up too many walks and home runs, a terrible combination. As the Texas Rangers stagger at the end of the season, Eovaldi needs to rebound in his next start, likely on Tuesday against the Red Sox.