Ottoneu Cold Right Now: May 20, 2024
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:
- Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
- Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
- Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
Roster Cuts
Ian Hamilton, Add% Change (7 days): -11.6%
Hamilton seems to now be the third in line behind closer Clay Holmes as Luke Weaver continues to roll out scoreless innings. Hamilton, on the other hand, has given up three earned runs, one from a home run, over his last five appearances (5.1 IP). His ERA on the year is now 3.18 (4.01 xERA).
Hamilton’s big pitch in 2023 was his slider which collected a 42.5% Whiff rate (Statcast) and a 109 Stuff+ measurement. This season, the pitch still has collected a lot of swing and miss (39.2% Whiff%) and an even better Stuff+ measurement (151), but it hasn’t led to the strikeout gains that Hamilton displayed in 2023. His K% is down by more than 10% in 2024. Individual pitch metrics point to a positive regression for Hamilton, but without any wins or saves on the year, fantasy managers aren’t seeing the value in keeping a low-leverage reliever.
Jack Leiter, Add% Change (7 days): -10.9%
Leiter was sent back down to AAA where he’ll need to work on his command. First, let’s get the bad stuff out of the way. In his three starts as a major leaguer, Leiter collected a 2.57 WHIP, a 16.39 ERA (9.09 xERA), and a 1.8% K-BB%. One look at his heat maps on his Savant page, and you’ll see that he didn’t just nibble around the zone, he missed it by a scary amount. That was particularly the case with his cutter as it landed in the zone only 25% of the time. I don’t need to supply the league average zone rate on cutters to emphasize how bad that is, but I will: MLB average of 47.4%. Though Leiter only threw it 5.7% of the time, it’s clear that the pitch needs some work. His four-seamer did impress from a velocity standpoint, helping him reach a Statcast “Fastball Velo” 79th percentile. The pitch garnered an impressive 17.7% swinging strike rate (10.0% MLB average, PitcherList), but it also got walloped for a .393 batting average. It seems clear that without the command of any of his secondaries, Leiter was forced to throw his four-seamer when behind, and big-league hitters knew just what to do. It’s hard to promote keeping Leiter, but he may be able to right the ship. Keep an eye on his minor league K-BB% and hope the Rangers are willing to keep giving him experience as a starter.
James Outman, Add% Change (7 days): -10.3%
Outman was sent back down to AAA after a very rough 36-game slash line of .147/.250/.266. It’s never easy to get hits when hitters strike out as often as Outman and his 32.3% strike-out rate grew slightly from his 2023 line. Outman really struggled to hit the fastball and while Outman’s increased 82.6% zone contact rate gives some reason to be hopeful, it is still below the major league average of 85.8%. He’ll need to work on his swing decisions and timing in AAA, but with players like Miguel Vargas, Andy Pages, and Teoscar Hernández manning the outfield, Outman is facing an upfield battle. Still, he’s the best center fielder on the team and maybe that will bring him back to the major leagues.
Parker Meadows, Add% Change (7 days): -9.4%
Meadows’ .096/.224/.219 slash line across 32 games earned him a trip back down to AAA where he’ll work on the all-important zone contact. His number, 77.9%, is well below the league average of 85.8%. Meadows could not catch up to big league pitching and sported a 37.6% K% in his second stint as a major leaguer. He ended up swinging out of the zone more than he should and in the zone less than he should. There’s no reason to believe he can’t find his swing again in the minor leagues and his defensive prowess should be enough to bring him back to the big leagues if he does.
Injuries
Emmet Sheehan, Add% Change (7 days): -11.9%
Sheehan had tommy-john surgery, earlier in the week. It’s a shame because the 24-year-old righty was coming into his own in his last three starts where he collected 24 strikeouts and a 1.98 ERA. He ended the 2024 season with a 1.19 WHIP and a 4.92 ERA. He’ll be back.
Paul Blackburn, Add% Change (7 days): -15.3%
A broken foot has the 30-year-old righty on the IL. There was a lot smoke and mirrors making Blackburn’s first four starts of the season look like a Broadway play. He had very high left-on-base rates and a very low batting average on balls in play and his control was rather eradic. He walked more batters in his fourth start than he did in his first three combined. Once Blackburn ran into the Yankees and Orioles, his ERA rocketed up from 1.08 through his first four starts to 3.34. However, it’s not as if Blackburn’s early season success came out of the same old gameplan. Over time, he’s dropped his sinker usage and relied more heavily on four-seamers and changeups. The combination of his changeup and curveball kept hitters on their toes, particularly lefties who have slashed .186/.233/.299 overall against Blackburn so far in 2024. The same is not true for righties who got to him for .286/.353/.506 and his cutter seems to be an issue. Both lefties and righties got to the pitch for a batting average over .300. Blackburn will have to improve against same-handed hitters, working with his slider more and reeling in his control when he returns from injury.
Cold Performers
Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.
Blake Perkins, -1.2 P/G:
Perkins was on fire through April, slashing .266/.376/.418 with an 11.8% BB%, three home runs and three stolen bases. He did have a .333 BABIP and that has come down to a .219 BABIP in May as has Perkins’ slash line (.157/.200/.235). Much of that is due to his challenges hitting left-handed pitching and while Perkins is a switch hitter, he’s only hit .143 against lefties in 31 plate appearances. Still, he remains the Brewers’ best option at center field.
Brett Baty, -0.6 P/G:
Baty has also struggled against lefties, slashing a lowly .167/.219/.267 against them in 2024. He’s likely in a platoon with Mark Vientos. Baty also continues to put the ball on the ground too often. In each season he’s played in the big leagues (2022-2024), he’s posted ground ball rates of 50% or more. The major league average is 42.7%. With the Mets struggling to get to .500, Baty needs to instill himself in the lineup with better offense.
Martín Pérez, -3.4 P/IP:
Pérez’s fastball velocity on the year (PitchInfo) sits at 91.1 MPH and against the Brewers on May 15th it was down to 89.9 MPH. Pérez got hammered by the Brewers as he gave up nine earned runs and gave up five home runs. That was a disastrous outing in Ottoneu points leagues and Pérez will have to have an outing with his velocity back up before he should be considered starting on fantasy teams.
Brad Keller, -1.0 P/IP:
Keller ran into the Yankees on a good day and gave up four home runs, five earned runs, and lasted only four innings. Keller has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever in 2024. In his two starts, he hasn’t made it past the fifth inning.