Ottoneu Cold Right Now: June 19, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Injuries

Mitch Haniger – fractured right forearm (RotoWire)

Lance McCullers Jr. – Transferred from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list by the Astros on Saturday (forearm) (RotoWire).

Yoán Moncada – Placed on the injured list Thursday due to his nagging back injury (RotoWire).

Roster Cuts

Matt Strahm, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.50%

The Phillies lefty has given up four home runs in his last four appearances with a total of six earned runs. He only has one save and two holds on the year, and in the last 14 days, he has accumulated -22 points. He is a setup man among setup men in the Phillies pen and does not have the hot hand among José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and Craig Kimbrel.

Max Kepler, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.26%

Kepler has four hits in his last 30 plate appearances. With Alex Kirilloff getting more and more reps in right field and switch-hitter Willi Castro able to play the outfield as well, Kepler is getting crowded out of playing time. He’s only hitting .100 against lefties and .203 against righties and his power hasn’t made up for those low averages just yet. You might think Kepler has to break out of this slump sooner or later, but his SLG and wOBA marks have been slowly declining and he is in his age 30 season:

Zach McKinstry, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.98%

Once “Hot Right Now” McKinstry ends up being written about in the opposite “Cold Right Now” as some may have predicted. Here’s what I wrote at the end of May:

.318/.478/.439 in the month of May. Compare that with a career .232/.311/.401 and you could hypothesize that regression will come. His season .351 BABIP supports that hypothesis.

His slash line currently stands at .246/.336/.372 and his wOBA has fallen off a cliff:

After staying hot through the first week of June, McKinstry went 0-16 but he has three hits in his last three games. His decreased O-Swing% is what caught my eye when he was having success and that has started to go up:

Caleb Ferguson, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.33%

In his last few appearances in May and his first few in June, Ferguson went through a really rough stretch as he gave up eight earned runs in less than five innings (4.2). It seems like he has corrected somewhat as his last three appearances have given up no hits, no walks, and no runs. His 2023 K/9 (10.38) is right in line with his career mark (10.77) and RosterResource’s “Closer Depth Chart” still lists him as part of a closer committee. Hopefully, the rough patch was just that and Ferguson will start making Ottoneu managers happy again. I wouldn’t be cutting based on this little hiccup, but I would be paying close attention to his next few appearances.

Paul DeJong, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.37%

DeJong’s home run on Sunday (June 18th) fell into the realm of Murphy’s Law for managers who cut him before that game. I understand why, DeJong is either hitting a home run or not hitting at all. Though he does have a four-game hit streak rolling right now, his batting average sits at .228. RosterResource doesn’t have him listed as a platoon hitter, but he is seeing more success against lefties (.263) than he is against righties (.218). I don’t think anyone should be surprised as DeJong’s current slash line of .228/.298/.444 is very similar to his career line of .232/.305/.429. If you’re willing to wait for a few home runs every once in a while and pay close attention to matchups, DeJong is a fine player to roster in Ottoneu formats.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Rowdy Tellez, -0.36 P/G:

FanGraphs writer Chris Gilligan wrote earlier in the month about Tellez’s plate discipline and his taking of strikes. He has 12 home runs on the season but he hasn’t put one out of the yard since May 22nd. He’s still been getting his hits but they aren’t coming that often. He’s five for his last 21 plate appearances. Tellez is the type of hitter who can suddenly hit six bombs just like that, so stay patient and plug him back into your lineup if you see his xwOBA on the rise.

Byron Buxton, -3.25 P/G:

Buxton returned from injury on the 15th of June and hasn’t had a hit or a walk in his first 13 plate appearances. Let’s give him some time to settle in and get his timing down before we start making any big claims. You just have to hope that the rib injury that had him on the IL isn’t the culprit.

Max Scherzer, 0.11 P/IP:

Here’s a quote from Max Scherzer that I pulled from an SB Nation’s Amazin’ Avenue article:

“This is simple: I struggled with my slider. Every time I was throwing my slider, it was hanging. I wasn’t executing it the way I needed to. I can’t believe I was hanging that many sliders in all those situations.”

Mad Max struck out only two, gave up two home runs and six earned runs in his last appearance against the Yankees. All of Scherzer’s breaking pitches (slider, curveball, changeup) have accumulated negative pVals this season. The veteran clearly knows what the issue is and you can bet he is working on it.

Spencer Strider, -2.33 P/IP:

I’ll come right out with it, Strider has a home run issue. He’s given up 10 home runs in his last six appearances. That’s not good in points leagues. Sure, he also has 48 strikeouts in that time, but hitters are starting to do damage on his fastball. Take a look at his pVal accumulation between his first eight starts of the season to the last six: