Ottoneu Cold Right Now: June 17, 2024
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:
- Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
- Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
- Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
Roster Cuts
Alex Kirilloff, Add% Change (7 days): -22.8%
Through 57 games this season, Kirilloff has a slash line of .201/.270/.384 and the Twins have demoted him to AAA. He has excellent metrics when he makes contact, such as an 11.3% barrel rate (MLB Average: 7.8%), a 107.1 MPH max exit velocity, and a Statcast HardHit% of 40.9% (MLB Average: 38.9%). His biggest problem is that he doesn’t make contact often enough. This season his Z-Contact% (Statcast) of 81.4% is below league average (85.3%) and he swings outside of the zone too much. He has struggled to produce against fastballs in 2024 from a run-value perspective, particularly against four-seamers and cutters. It may be that Kirilloff needs to work on his timing in AAA and will rejoin the team sometime in July, but with only one MiLB option remaining, he’ll need to make this trip count. At 26 years old, it seems very possible that he could still turn things around, but time is running out.
Wenceel Pérez, Add% Change (7 days): -12.5%
After a huge start to the season in which Pérez slashed .302/.375/.628 with a wRC+ of 179 through 48 plate appearances, the 24-year-old outfielder has cooled off somewhat. He is a player who thrives on putting the ball in play and he’s gone through a rough patch in the BABIP department:
With a Z-Contact% of 88.6%, over the 85.3% MLB average, and not a ton of power, Pérez will likely go through mini-slumps regularly. But, his BB% is just about league average and he’s using his above-average speed (Spd) on the base paths enough to continue to add value, he has five steals on the year. Dropping him seems short-sided given he is a switch-hitter batting at the top of the Tigers lineup.
Garrett Cleavinger, Add% Change (7 days): -11.3%
Since his return from injury in mid-May, Pete Fairbanks has had the closer role locked down and Jason Adam has played a nice back-up/set-up role. In addition, Cleavinger has had to compete with the other lefty, Colin Poche, who has also looked good in his return to the team. Beyond simply trying to find a role, Cleavinger has had a rough June. His June ERA has swelled to 13.50 as he’s given up 11 hits in only 4.2 innings. His ERA on the year is 3.49 (4.08 xERA) and he should either be benched or dropped during this rough patch.
Josh Rojas, Add% Change (7 days): -8.8%
It’s sad to see Rojas on this list after such an amazing start to the season. But, that’s baseball:
.318/.408/.530 (Mar/Apr)
.244/.293/.314 (May)
.214/.298/.357 (June)
But, like with Wenceel Pérez (above), it seems short-sided to drop Rojas. He has also had some BABIP struggles that have paired with an unchanged Z-Contact% and a somewhat stable HardHit%.
He remains at the top of the lineup against right-handed pitchers and his ability to get on base, his BB% is still up over last season’s mark, is still a strength in the lineup.
Injuries
Jordan Wicks, Add% Change (7 days): -10.3%
Wicks has a Grade 2 oblique strain and has landed on the IL. It’s disappointing as Wicks only threw five innings since his return from a forearm injury that had him out since the end of April. At the start of the season, Wicks displayed some big gains in his ability to strike batters out paired with big improvements in his Stuff+ metrics. He’ll likely be on the IL for longer than the 15-day minimum. He’s certainly worth stashing if the price is right.
Cold Performers
Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.
Adolis García, 0.8 P/G:
Adolis is slashing .154/.211/.231 in June with only one home run and two stolen bases. His K% has crept up to 27.0%, but his barrel rate, exit velocity, and HardHit% are all stable. He’ll be able to right the ship if he can get back in the zone and this season’s Z-Contact% still sits higher than where it finished in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
Leody Taveras, -2.1 P/G:
Leody’s defense and switch-hitting have kept him in the lineup, though it is in the bottom half. Some of his more informative batted ball stats (Barrel%, maxEV, HardHit%) have dipped in 2024 and he’s slashing only .211/.281/.322 on the year. Some positive things are still happening, including a higher BB%, a lower K%, and an increased Z-Contact% from 2023’s end-of-season marks.
Spencer Arrighetti, -0.9 P/IP:
The Tigers crushed Arrighetti on June 15th, getting seven runs off the 24-year-old from three home runs in less than two innings. That constitutes a benching on any fantasy team, but it’s certainly not worth dropping or cutting at this point in his young career.
Justin Verlander, 0.3 P/IP:
Verlander has some neck issues that could be contributing to a lack of quality. As the 41-year-old tries to delay father time, his fastball velocity is at a near-career low (93.8 MPH measured by Baseball Info Solutions). He’s been struggling with the long ball and while he still has strikeout stuff, his fastball has been getting hit with regularity.