Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 15, 2024 (All-Star Break Edition)
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:
- Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
- Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
- Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
Roster Cuts
Cole Irvin, Add% Change (7 days): -11.7%
The O’s lefty will now be working out of the pen according to manager Brandon Hyde. However, take one look at the O’s RosterResource page and you’ll notice there are only four starters in the rotation and zero lefties. Irvin may be the only option after lefty Cade Povich was demoted to AAA. Here are Irvin’s SP/RP splits in 2024:
As SP: 75.1 IP, 4.06 ERA, 6.45 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.08 HR/9
As RP: 13.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 4.73 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 2.03 HR/9
Though there was some hype about Irvin going into the season given his increased velocity and the likelihood he’d be given a fair shot at a full-time starter role, he has been a fringe-level fantasy player with a 3.3 P/IP mark on the season.
Nick Senzel, Add% Change (7 days): -11.0%
Yikes! It seems Senzel didn’t pan out in Washington, D.C. as the Nationals have requested his “unconditional release”. Some (raises hand) had high hopes, or at least hopes, for Senzel with the Nationals. But D.C. will chew you up and spit you out faster than you can say, “Hi, my name is Nick Se…” and in Senzel fashion, he started the season off with an injury. He was still able to recover and get back into the lineup and he started off rosterable, but then he declined:
Mar/Apr: 5.6 P/G -> May: 3.3 P/G -> June: 2.6 P/G -> July: -0.2 P/G
That won’t cut it as a major league third-baseman and he should be dropped everywhere.
Connor Joe, Add% Change (7 days): -9.7%
Joe’s slugging percentage in the month of July sits at .167. His batting average has declined in each month of the season. There is some hope given his OBP has bounced back up to a .348 mark in July and that’s thanks to a high 17.4% BB% this month. Still, he hasn’t been a points accumulator and the start to the season was his best standing in the fantasy department:
Mar/Apr: 5.6 P/G -> May: 4.6 P/G -> June: 2.3 P/G -> July: 1.5 P/G
For now, he’s replaceable.
Injuries
Reed Garrett, Add% Change (7 days): -31.0%
Reed Garrett has been one of this season’s vultures, a reliever who comes in and eats up the win. He has seven on the year joining Héctor Neris and Jared Koenig as relievers with seven wins with a 30 IP minimum. Depending on the format you are playing in, Garrett has been a sneaky good reliever as he’s also mopped up four saves and eight holds this season. He’s now dealing with elbow issues and an MRI revealed no structural damage. He may be worth holding if you have the space, but predicting his future saves, wins, and holds is a challenge, especially with elbow issues.
Sam Hentges, Add% Change (7 days): -12.5%
Hentges was listed as an unrostered reliever who could help fantasy teams in Jake Mailhot’s late June Ottoneu Drip. In it, Mailhot wrote:
He’s back to his usual dominance this year, with career-best strikeout and walk rates so far. There are four pitchers ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, but as a left-handed pitcher, he gets opportunities to pick up holds against teams with particularly difficult left-handed batters.
In his last six appearances before going on the IL with shoulder inflammation (15-day IL), his K/9 shot up to 13.5 and he recorded one hold. Sadly, he’ll be out of commission for the time being and should probably be dropped if you have a roster crunch.
Cold Performers
Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.
Thairo Estrada, -1.8 P/G
Estrada had two hits, both singles, in 22 at-bats since his reinstatement from the IL (wrist). He’ll be working to get back to the slash line he held in May (4.5 P/G), .265/.306/.425 with a 13.2% K%. That dipped to .182/.222/.260 in June (1.6 P/G) with a 21.0% K%. He has also struggled to run all season as he’s only recorded one stolen base compared to 2022’s 21 and 2023’s 23.
David Fry, -0.1 P/G
Here are Fry’s points per game monthly splits:
Mar/Apr: 5.0 -> May: 9.1 -> June: 2.9 -> July: -0.1
Here are Fry’s BABIP monthly splits:
Mar/Apr: .406 -> May: .381 -> June: .327 -> July: .130
He was the talk of the town in May and hopefully, you cashed in during that time. No, you can’t blame it all on BABIP. His K% has steadily crept up while his BB% has steadily gone down as the season has gone on. It seems that pitchers have adjusted and Fry will need to as well.
Javier Assad, -15.8 P/IP
A forearm strain held Assad out of the rotation since June 23rd and in his first game back on July 13th, Assad only lasted 2.1 innings and gave up two home runs and two walks with zero strikeouts. Maybe they should have waited until the All-Star Break was over to bring him back into the rotation.
Bryan Woo, -6.4 P/IP
Much like Assad, the Mariners rushed Woo back into the rotation to get a start in before the break. He had been out since June 24th with a hamstring injury and again, like Assad, may have been rushed back too soon. He lasted only 3.1 innings, and gave up one home run and two walks while striking out one. Woo’s struggles with injury this season have limited his innings and he’s been a 5.4 P/IP starter on the year.