Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Aug 5, 2024
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:
- Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
- Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
- Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
Roster Cuts
Rece Hinds, Add% Change (7 days): -24.5%
The 23-year-old outfielder has been optioned to AAA to make room for TJ Friedl. Hinds slugged .868 in 10 games while hitting five home runs. Hinds’ short stint in the big leagues had to have given him and fantasy managers confidence in his power, but should have raised plenty of red flags about his approach. Striking out 30% of the time probably won’t work out as an everyday player, so he’ll have something to work on in the minors, particularly hitting offspeed and breaking balls. But, that’s the way it goes, and if you are dropping Hinds due to a demotion, you may have been paying too much at the start. Otherwise, his power is worth holding on to in a fantasy setting that rewards slugging.
Colin Holderman, Add% Change (7 Days): -8.8%
Holderman has not recorded a hold, a save, or a win in his last seven appearances. His K/9 (8.53) and BB/9 (4.26) in that small sample have not been good for fantasy teams either. RosterResource has the once set-up man demoted to middle-reliever and names like Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Nicolas, and Jalen Beeks have moved above him in the pecking order. Good luck has stretched the distance between his ERA (3.07) and xERA (4.36) and too many walks have hurt Holderman’s fantasy value in recent weeks.
Injuries
Nick Gonzales, Add% Change (7 days): -20.7%
Slashing .258/.293/.387 in 65 2024 games has been a big improvement over his 35 2023 games, .209/.268/.348. In addition, Gonzales cut his strikeout rate down to 21.3% in 2024 from 28.1% in 2023. He hasn’t displayed much power and that has led to a 3.87 P/G mark, right around what would be considered replacement level (3.70-4.10 P/G) for a second baseman. Unfortunately, Gonzales seems to be on the IL for the foreseeable future with a groin injury. Look for newly acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa to take his spot.
Jon Gray, Add% Change (7 days): -12.5%
Gray is on the 15-day IL with a groin injury, but it’s feared that he’ll be out longer than that. He’s bounced back and forth between reliever and starter in 2024, but his latest start was a doozie, good for 56.33 points:
7.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 SO
Overall in 2024, his 4.65 P/IP mark has been a big improvement over 2023’s 3.82 P/IP and it’s close to what he accomplished in 2022 when he finished the year at 4.66 P/IP.
Cold Performers
Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.
Brandon Drury, -1.5 P/G
July was not kind to Drury. He slashed .153/.253/.153 in 83 plate appearances, but illness and hamstring issues have plagued him all season long. Nothing in Drury’s 2024 stat book looks anything like Drury of the past few seasons and clearly, he is not himself.
Will Smith, 0.0 P/G
After an incredible start to the season, the Dodgers catcher has been on a decline through most of the year:
All of Smith’s Statcast pitch values (run value) are positive in 2024 (excluding knuckle balls) except for four-seam fastballs, matching his stats from 2023. Good for fantasy managers is his slugging percentage, which still sits well above average at .443 (xSLG .442). He also has 15 home runs on the season.
Kutter Crawford, -3.1P/IP
The Red Sox righty has given up 26 home runs all season and 12 of those have come in his last three appearances, mostly on kutters and four-seam fastballs:
Crawford puts the ball in the zone more than the average starter and it has aided his sub-7% walk rate (MLB SP AVG: 7.6%) in the last two seasons. But, last season he just snuck in below the 1.32 HR/9 MLB average for starters with a 1.18 mark and this recent rough patch has placed him at 1.81 on the season, well above the current league average of 1.20.
MacKenzie Gore, -1.2 P/IP
Gore’s K% has been trending down all season:
One of my favorite new aspects of player pages is the added game log data. In Gore’s you can see the swinging strike rate in his last two games 4.4% on 7/26 and 5.1% on 7/31 have been well below his 12.5% season average. To a somewhat lesser extent, his O-Swing% has also been below his season average. Gore ranks in the Statcast 76th percentile when it comes to Whiff% so when his SwStr% declines that should be an indicator of Gore not being at his best.