Ottoneu Cold Right Now: April 8, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Kenta Maeda, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.0%

Maeda has made two starts across nine innings this season. Neither has gone beyond six innings or yielded more than three strikeouts. In both starts, Maeda had trouble with the long ball as he gave up three in his first start and one in his most recent start. The home run issue has not been isolated to one individual pitch. He’s given up two homers on his slider, one on his four-seamer, and one on his cutter. Maeda is not getting the swing-and-miss needed to rack up strikeouts and much of that is due to his location. First, he’s leaving too many sliders in the zone:

Second, his velocity hasn’t bumped back up to 2023’s levels and it’s hard to determine if he’s trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher with less velocity or if he is working to get it back. It’s hard to live at 89 MPH and that’s what pitch info has his four-seamer averaging this season. Keep some hope that the red and blue dots move further away from each other in the north/south direction:

Maeda seems more of a bench and monitor type of pitcher at this point in the season than a straight-cut.

Esteury Ruiz, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 9.4%

This report is a week late, but the news is circulating among Ottoneu managers and many are dropping Ruiz:

David Forst on Esteury Ruiz: “We saw some better at-bats this spring, but the reality is, to use his skills, he needs to get on base. … He needs to be able to do that on a consistent basis. I’m hoping leading off every day at Triple-A, it’s not a long stay for him down there.”

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) April 1, 2024

It is understandable for fantasy managers to cut rather than hold, but what if a trip to AAA does help Ruiz’s plate skills? He is projected to steal anywhere between 32 and 49 bases depending on the system you choose and that is accompanied by sub-.320 OBPs. Imagine if he can find a way to get on base more often. Should you follow the crowd and cut the young speedster? That depends on your league format. In points leagues, Ruiz is unlikely to inch above replacement level, but in roto leagues where you can balance out his fantasy deficiencies with good roster construction, Ruiz is still rosterable.

Mickey Moniak, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.8%

A recent Jeff Zimmerman Mining the News referenced Moniak’s plans to focus on plate discipline in 2024. So far, he’s gone one for 13 and while he does have three walks to bring his OBP up, it still sits at .250. He continues to strike out too often, a quarter of this time so far in the young season, and his zone-contact rate remains nearly 10 percentage points below the league average. Moniak is already in a platoon, hitting in the bottom of the order, and working on improving necessary skills that he has never really demonstrated at the big-league level.

 

Injuries

Shane Bieber, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 36.6%

I’m sure you’ve heard the news:

Shane Bieber needs elbow surgery.

He had pain after his Opening Day start that continued through his outing in Seattle. Imaging revealed an injury to the same ligament that gave him trouble last year. Surgery was determined to be the best path forward this time.

— Mandy Bell (@MandyBell02) April 6, 2024

It has been a sad, sad few days for frontline starting pitchers and elbow injuries. Who’s left? The Guardians will hope to add Gavin Williams back to the rotation soon after dealing with his own elbow injury. Beyond that? Cleveland will have to dig deep into their farm system in hopes of soaking up some starts in 2024.

Tylor Megill, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 14.7%

It’s hard to determine how much of an issue Megill’s shoulder injury is, but reports are leaning towards optimism:

Tylor Megill says he will not throw for the next five days. The plan is for him to begin ramping up again after that.

He sees it more as the type of shoulder strain that will knock him out for a couple starts than the type that could cost him significant time.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 1, 2024

He had one short, four-inning start this season where he collected four strikeouts but walked three. He’s a streamer worth watching if he can work through this injury, but he’s never been an above-replacement-level starting pitcher in points league formats.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Seth Brown, -0.4 P/G:

Brown’s .217 BABIP suggests he’s been unlucky in a very small sample, and his wOBA of .189 is worse than his expectation (xwOBA) of .238. Still, that mark is too low. He’s projected to hit near 20 home runs, so give it time. Brown has held great barrel rates in his career and he currently sits at only 4.3%. He’s hitting in the middle of the Oakland order and is likely in a platoon, but that shouldn’t stop him from reaching over 400 plate appearances. Slumping to start the season is a bummer, but this shouldn’t be his expectation moving forward.

Daulton Varsho, 0.7 P/G:

After reading Esteban Rivera’s analysis of Varsho’s swing changes I was very hopeful when drafting the 27-year-old Blue Jay. However, the season has not opened well and perhaps Varsho is still working on adjustments. His peripherals suggest he has been unlucky:

AVG: .133 xAVG: .161

SLG: .167 xSLG: .243

wOBA: .200 xwOBA: .224

In his article, Rivera noticed that Varsho’s swing path was becoming more conducive to a line-drive approach, but as of now, he’s hitting a lot of balls in the air as his fly-ball rate sits at 59.1%. League average FB% in 2023 was 37.5%. Hopefully, Varsho will stick to it and work through his swing adjustments to meet success, but fantasy managers will need to see some positive stats filling his roto-line soon.

Griffin Canning, -5.8 P/IP:

In 9.2 innings pitched across two games, Canning has given up four home runs, recorded six strikeouts, and given up four walks. His ERA sits at 8.38. In early March, Dan Szymborskis wrote about Canning’s issues with leaving pitches in the zone, but was hopeful he could work the edges and get hitters to chase his breaking balls. So far, Canning’s zone contact rate is an ultra-high 95.6%, but his O-Swing is slightly better than the league average at 32.8%. He should see improvements moving forward if he locates just a little more strategically and focuses on his command.

Tyler Alexander, -4/9 P/IP:

Like Canning, Alexander has 9.1 innings pitched across two games in 2024. The sole lefty in the Rays starting rotation has been troubled by the long ball in 2024 as he’s given up two home runs in each start. His four-seamer gave up three of those four and hitters saw the pitch coming in at 89.0 MPH and took advantage. His four-seamer heatmap has changed from 2023 to 2024 and it suggests he’s trying to elevate in the zone more often, but has missed a few times, leaving slow fastballs in the heart of the zone:

That’s the story I’m sticking with. Alexander is not a fantasy target in many places, but if he stays in the Rays rotation and they sprinkle some of that Rays magic on his approach, perhaps Alexander will find some added value in 2024.