Ottoneu Cold Right Now: April 10, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Adds

Darick Hall, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 33.97%

RotoWire estimates a return to action by mid-July after Hall goes through surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. It’s a shame since Hall was going to get a chance to be the everyday first baseman for the Phillies after Rhys Hoskins‘ knee injury vacated the spot. Now, the Phillies have shifted things around the infield placing Alec Bohm at first and sliding Edmundo Sosa over to the 3B position. That leaves Kody Clemens and Josh Harrison as the IF/OF utility options to fill in positions when needed, with Harrison likely filling a platoon spot against righties. In any case, managers who rostered Hoskins, then Hall, and are now looking for replacements may have to split the playing time between a few players and may need to find players with sneaky 1B eligibility. Here are a few to consider:

Carlos Santana, PIT – 1B, Roster 5.77%

Harold Castro, COL – 1B/2B/SS/3B, Roster 2.24%

Garrett Cooper, MIA – 1B, Roster 23.08%

J.D. Davis, SFG – 1B/3B, Roster 38.78%

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Aaron Ashby, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 47.12%

The young lefty just couldn’t get his shoulder right in Spring Training after seemingly giving it every attempt. It was announced last week that Ashby will likely miss the full 2023 season and Ottoneu managers unwilling to keep him in the IL spot for the whole year have made cuts. For those in re-build mode this season, Ashby may be a nice hold target but don’t expect that it will be a quick turnaround. Shoulder injuries can be so tricky to get right. Ashby is now rostered in 55.45%, so the majority has chosen to keep him on the roster.

Ken Waldichuk, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 27.56%

Two stinkers and managers are done:

In points leagues, those home runs did serious points damage and in roto-leagues, the hit to ratio stats must be painful. Waldichuk put the ball in the zone too often across his two starts (46.7% vs. MLB 2022 SP Average, 41.6%) and he relied on his fastball too much throwing it 58.1% of the time. While many managers must be hurt deeply by these two starts, I don’t know if it’s fair to make a cut after two bad starts. Waldichuk is the second listed prospect on THE BOARD for Oakland and 85th overall in the league. There’s still a lot of talent and potential and he’s worth stashing and sitting.

Jared Shuster, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 23.08%

Similar to Waldichuk, Shuster is being dropped after a rough couple of starts:

While you could chalk it up to BABIP bad luck, the walks and lack of strikeouts are an issue. Shuster was optioned to AAA and will work on a few things in the minors, but should be back up eventually this season. He was a first-round pick for the Braves in 2020 and was the number-one ranked prospect in the organization as of last year. He’s a pitcher to stash for sure.

Cold Performers

Javier Báez, 33 AB, 2 BB, 4 H, -0.51 P/G

Baez’s K% is down from his career average and his BB% is up from his career average and his BABIP is at a career-low .154. I realize it’s too soon to be making comparisons between the 2023 season and a player’s career, but it is something to note. He’s already hit a ball over 100 MPH but he’s been putting the ball on the ground (GB%) 65.1% of the time. Before you get all “change of approach and bad luck!?” on me, note that his O-Swing% currently sits at 50.6%, which would indicate business as usual. I think what we are seeing here is simply a small sample of Javier Baez and while he will get the bat going eventually, he’s starting the year out cold. He’ll likely hit 20 home runs with a batting average below .250 and this is just a snapshot of that season.

Josh Bell, 35 AB, 8 BB, 3 H, 0.33 P/G

Bell is taking his walks (18.2%), but he’s also striking out a lot (27.3%). Bell has been swinging outside of the zone more often and making contact outside of the zone less often compared to his career numbers. Similar to Baez, he’s already smoked a ball at 108.5 MPH but his average launch angle thus far in 2023 is a sad -6.2. His career average launch angle is 8.4. One thing to note is that Bell has seen a relatively high percentage of breaking and offspeed pitches so far this season at 47.5%. It could be pressing, it could be cold weather and it could be a small sample, but Bell is slumpi–, ok don’t call it a slump. Bell is struggling to get his bat going to start the year.

Carlos Correa, 33 AB, 3 BB, 6 H, 1.93 P/G

With such a small sample of at-bats, it’s difficult to not sound like a broken record when analyzing slow starters. But, Correa already has a ball hit 112.0 MPH, his average launch angle is 24.3 degrees, he is hitting the ball hard 39.1% of the time and his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA are all higher than his actuals. His Z-Swing% and Z-Contact% are lower than his average and he’s taking called strikes at a higher rate than usual at 22.1% (18.4% career). Perhaps he is working on a more patient approach to start out the year as he works to get back into the rhythm of game action after a strange and roller-coaster offseason. All peripherals point to Correa righting the ship.