Ottoneu Cold Right Now: April 29, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, April 27th (does not include stats from Sunday, 4/28)

Roster Cuts

Louie Varland, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 31.3%

The Twins righty was optioned to AAA last week after holding a 9.18 ERA (8.06 xERA) through 16.2 innings pitched. All of those innings came as a starting pitcher and it was unclear whether Varland would make the rotation out of spring training until the season began. His Stuff+ measurements in that time indicate that his stuff was good, but that he needs to work on this control:

Stuff+: 102, Location+: 95, Pitching+: 97

However, none of his individual Stuff+ marks jumped off the leaderboard, and though he was known for a big fastball, it got hit hard in his first real look as a big-league starter. Prior to demotion, Statcast had the run value on his four-seamer at negative four and his cutter at negative ten. His fastballs, of which he also throws a sinker, performed poorly against right and left-handed batters. But, his secondaries showed a lot of promise. If Varland’s biggest issue is fastball command and he can improve it in AAA, he still has a chance to come back to the big leagues and be the pitcher many fantasy managers hoped he could be.

Andrew Vaughn, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.2%

Yes, Vaughn’s expected stats are better than his actuals but not by much. His BABIP is low (.239) but his K% is at a career-high 28.0%. What else is at a career-low? Barrel%, HardHit%, overall Contact% and Zone-Contact%. All of these dips are concerning enough to wonder if Vaughn is hurt. But without any reported physical issue it can only be speculated. Certainly, Vaughn has proven to be a better player than what he has displayed in 2024. It may be a small sample size, but pitchers are offering more sliders in 2024 than in the past and Vaughn still can’t hit them. In 2023 he posted a positive Statcast run value against the pitch, but in every other year of his career, it has been a negative number. Still, a 28.0% K% can’t all be blamed on sliders and Vaughn will have to start making more contact if good things are going to happen.

Joe Boyle, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 11.3%

In three starts and 16.0 IP last year, Joe Boyle posted a 1.69 ERA (2.25 xERA). In 2024’s five starts and 21.2 IP Boyle’s ERA holds at 7.06 ERA (4.31 xERA). Clearly, he’s been a little unlucky. A LOB% of 59.1% paired with a .350 BABIP is an indication, but the league BB% among starting pitchers is currently at 8.1% and Boyle is walking batters 15.5% of the time. He’s not getting batters to chase much outside of the zone. When he falls behind in the count, he has relied on the fastball and it has gotten tagged for a .474 wOBA when the hitter is ahead. Boyle has a really good slider from a Stuff+ perspective at 125 and an overall Stuff+ measure of 108, but with Pitching+ at 94 and his Location+ at 92, he’ll have to figure out how to utilize and control his pitches before he sees results.

Alejandro Kirk, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.6%

Now that Danny Jansen is back from a wrist injury that delayed his season debut, Kirk will likely struggle to find playing time. Jansen has simply been the better player since his return:

Kirk has moved further and further away from the excellent slash line he posted in 2022 (.285/.372/.415) and with decreased playing time, Ottoneu managers are making cuts.

Injuries

Kris Bryant, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 11.9%

Bryant made it through 13 games in 2024 before the back started acting up. His slash line in that time (.149/.273/.255) didn’t make anyone hopeful and once it was reported that the veteran hadn’t healed up by the time his 10-day IL stint was over, Ottoneu cuts came. Back injuries always seem to linger through an entire season and Bryant’s injury track record in the last few years doesn’t give much hope that he’ll return to his expectations any time soon.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Kyle Hendricks, -1.5 P/G:

Hendricks has a home run problem. For a pitcher who does a great job of limiting hard contact, he’s given up at least one home run in each of his five starts and has given up two home runs in three of his five starts. In an Ottoneu points league, that is painful. While there is some hope when looking at his expected and actual comparisons (12.00 ERA, 6.95 xERA) in addition to his very high .392 BABIP and LOB% (50.3%), Hendricks is difficult to trust on any fantasy roster at the moment.

Joe Musgrove, 0.8 P/G:

Musgrove’s results have been poor. His 2.31 HR/9 is way above his career 1.16 and hitters are barrelling up the ball 11.6% of the time, a career-high. There is no noticeable difference in Musgrove’s pitch selection or movement or velocity and his results are creating some head-scratching. All of his pitches, except for the sinker, have Whiff%’s over 20% which is a good indicator that he still has good stuff. Even his stuff (Stuff+) tells us he has good stuff as he ranks 10th among qualified pitchers in overall Stuff+ at 115. He has the second-best Slider Stuff+ (145) within the same group behind only Aaron Civale (163). There’s still a lot to like with Musgrove and I won’t be benching him.

Jose Siri, -1.9 P/IP:

It’s never a good sign when the manager reportedly pulls the player from the game due to “lack of effort”. Siri’s K% is an unbelievable 44.1% currently and while high strike-out rates have always been part of Siri’s game, a .173/.261/.259 slash line is unrosterable. Siri should be riding the pine everywhere.

MJ Melendez, -0.5 P/IP:

A .211 BABIP is an indication of bad luck. Melendez is still smoking the ball with metrics like an 11.5% Barrel%, a 112.9 MPH MaxEV, and a 39.3% HardHit%. While he has begun chasing a little more often (O-Swing%), his Z-Contact% remains the same as last season, around 76%. That is below the league average Z-Contact% of 85.7%, but Melendez has always been a high-risk/reward type of player. The expectation should be that he will bounce back ever-so-slightly.