Ottoneu Arbitration Technique #2: Tip the Scales
Have you ever found yourself paying for something that you just knew you couldn’t afford? At the store, you talked yourself into it. You over-exaggerated how much “extra” you had in your budget. You convinced yourself that you needed this shiny, beautiful thing and that, heck, you even deserved it. But when you got home, thoughts started to creep in. How am I going to afford this? My butt doesn’t look as good in my home mirror as it did in the store. Maybe I can get a second job. Maybe I can make cuts in other areas. Do I really need this? Eventually, after a week’s worth of instant mac n’ cheese dinners, you decide that it’s not worth it, that it’s time to come to reality, and that the high-priced item needs to go back to the store. In the case of Ottoneu fantasy baseball, managers are watching their arbitration dollars pile up and are asking the same questions. Can I really afford Adley Rutcshman now that the market has caught up? How much is too much for Ronald Acuña Jr.? Why is everyone picking on me?
During arbitration, your league mates will increase your players’ salaries, tightening the screws on your overall budget, but you get to do the same to them. Maybe the best thing to do is to simply force them to take their own high-priced items back to the store or, dropping the metaphor, cut the player. Let’s take a look at each team’s most expensive player in the FanGraphs Staff League II:
| Team | Name | Avg Salary | Max Salary | Actual Salary | Arbitration Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | $57.51 | $107.00 | $62.00 | $65.00 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | $54.08 | $67.00 | $50.00 | $53.00 |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | $55.57 | $76.00 | $60.00 | $63.00 |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | $28.08 | $56.00 | $36.00 | $39.00 |
| 5 | Mookie Betts | $56.78 | $74.00 | $65.00 | $68.00 |
| 6 | Bryce Harper | $39.61 | $65.00 | $44.00 | $47.00 |
| 7 | Juan Soto | $61.90 | $82.00 | $59.00 | $62.00 |
| 8 | Blake Snell | $22.14 | $40.00 | $27.00 | $30.00 |
| 9 | Matt Olson | $28.33 | $52.00 | $32.00 | $35.00 |
| 10 | José Ramírez | $47.93 | $71.00 | $54.00 | $57.00 |
| 11 | Xander Bogaerts | $34.29 | $52.00 | $37.00 | $40.00 |
I’ve gone into experimental mode and added $3 to every player’s salary. In yellow, I’ve highlighted the players who were brought up above the average salary due to my adjustment. In red, I’ve highlighted players who were already rostered above the average and are now well over that limit. This helps visualize which teams I could have the biggest impact on with my arbitration dollars alone. That’s all well and nice but keep in mind that you wouldn’t be able to give each team $3. That would put you well above your $25 spending limit in 12-team leagues. No, you’ve got a healthy $25 to dish out and not a penny more. So, let’s create a different scenario.
I’ll take each team’s best two players and I’ll divvy out at least $1 to each team as required, focusing on teams that have players just about to tip over the average edge of the cliff. Here goes:
| Team | Name | Avg Salary | Max Salary | Actual Salary | Dollars Added | Arbitration Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | $57.51 | $107.00 | $62.00 | $1.00 | $63.00 |
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | $32.30 | $46.00 | $41.00 | $0.00 | $41.00 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | $54.08 | $67.00 | $50.00 | $1.00 | $51.00 |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | $55.99 | $89.00 | $49.00 | $2.00 | $51.00 |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | $55.57 | $76.00 | $60.00 | $2.00 | $62.00 |
| 3 | Ozzie Albies | $26.81 | $42.00 | $29.00 | $1.00 | $30.00 |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | $28.08 | $56.00 | $36.00 | $0.00 | $36.00 |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | $32.41 | $49.00 | $32.00 | $1.00 | $33.00 |
| 5 | Mookie Betts | $56.78 | $74.00 | $65.00 | $2.00 | $67.00 |
| 5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | $45.97 | $62.00 | $52.00 | $1.00 | $53.00 |
| 6 | Bryce Harper | $39.61 | $65.00 | $44.00 | $1.00 | $45.00 |
| 6 | Yordan Alvarez | $42.01 | $65.00 | $34.00 | $2.00 | $36.00 |
| 7 | Juan Soto | $61.90 | $82.00 | $59.00 | $2.00 | $61.00 |
| 7 | Trea Turner | $46.63 | $64.00 | $46.00 | $1.00 | $47.00 |
| 8 | Blake Snell | $22.14 | $40.00 | $27.00 | $0.00 | $27.00 |
| 8 | Kevin Gausman | $19.91 | $34.00 | $24.00 | $1.00 | $25.00 |
| 9 | Matt Olson | $28.33 | $52.00 | $32.00 | $1.00 | $33.00 |
| 9 | Kyle Tucker | $32.09 | $55.00 | $29.00 | $2.00 | $31.00 |
| 10 | José Ramírez | $47.93 | $71.00 | $54.00 | $1.00 | $55.00 |
| 10 | Gerrit Cole | $46.46 | $72.00 | $53.00 | $1.00 | $54.00 |
| 11 | Xander Bogaerts | $34.29 | $52.00 | $37.00 | $1.00 | $38.00 |
| 11 | Joe Musgrove | $18.50 | $34.00 | $22.00 | $1.00 | $23.00 |
| $25.00 |
Once again I’ve highlighted players in yellow who I brought above the average. In red are the players who were already rostered for a price above average, and I’ve really started gouging. Muahahah! Take that! Can’t afford to pay!? Too bad! Ok, Aaron Judge is safe. So are Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker. But it would take a concentrated effort to bring those players up to or above the average. You could very well do the opposite of what I’m suggesting here and give those players all of your focus, but I would imagine other members of the league will concentrate some inflation firepower in that direction. The rest of the players in the white cells, Goldschmidt, Bieber, and Snell, are already rostered above the average and don’t need any scale tipping to be done.
This is the way to keep the stars in each year’s draft and part of the reason, like baseball, Ottoneu is a very difficult game to play. Of course, this is only one strategy to use, but it can be very effective. Now, just imagine a world where every member of your league reads this article. Stay with me here. Each owner in your league adds just a dollar or more to each team’s top players. Now that would make for some interesting keeper deadlines, wouldn’t it?
I liked Technique #1 better:
Let’s say you arb Betts from $65 to $67, as recommended here. If Betts gets cut, and you win him for $60 — that’s great, but that means he would (or should) have been cut even without you arbing him. If he gets cut but another team wins him for less than $67, you’ve made your position worse — you don’t have Betts, and he costs less than he did before. If he gets cut and a different team gets him for $70, that’s great, but you’re counting on the other manager making a bad decision (cutting him for less than what he’s worth). If Betts is kept at $67, that’s … fine, but no better or worse than arbing anybody else who ends up kept.
I guess what you’re hoping for with this is that Betts get cut and you can win him in the auction for somewhere close to his current salary in the mid-$60s. But even then, your leaguemates are going to ensure you don’t get meaningful surplus value with this.