Ottoneu: A Quick and Easy Trade Analyzer

Fantasy baseball trades are difficult to pull off. Everyone feels like the offer is too one-sided. You either have to be willing to give something up or, you have to be in a more realistic “buyer” versus “seller” type of situation. This is exactly where I find myself, believe it or not, as a buyer. After a few days of clicking, calling, and chat-boxing like Billy Beane, a counter-trade offer has come my way looking like a deal worth taking:

Receive:
Christian Yelich $23
José Berríos $9
Edwin Díaz $14
Loan $10

Give Up:
Luis Gil $3
Marco Luciano $3
Coby Mayo $3
Victor Scott II $3

In this league, I’m currently in fourth place, within striking distance of third place, and only a few hundred points away from the top. I want to win and I want to win now! I can’t fall out of fourth place and this may be my only chance to build on to my squad. I need proof that this deal will help me this year. Luis Gil has certainly helped me this year. Maybe I should just keep him? Here is a top ten leaderboard of pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings this season:

So, uh, yea, Luis Gil is good. Rostering him for only $3, too? That’s extra good. After Gil, however, I essentially have three minor leaguers, two of which (Mayo and Luciano) are on the IL. Before I’m willing to accept this deal, which basically depletes my future talent, I need to ensure that accepting these more established major leaguers will help me this year. Here is a simple way to calculate what this trade can do for me this year:

1. Take each player’s points per game (P/G) or points per inning pitched (P/IP) mark and multiply it by the games/innings pitched they are projected to play in the big leagues for the rest of the season (ROS). In this case, I’ll use FanGraphs Depth Charts.
2. Total your expected points.
3. Compare each side.

In my current situation, projections have me nearly doubling my points output. There are a few major assumptions this calculation carries. First, the points per game mark for a minor leaguer like Coby Mayo is based on his minor league performance. We don’t know how that will transfer to the big leagues but you can certainly bet it will decrease. In addition, we’re assuming Christian Yelich is a true 7.14 P/G player, but that’s the highest mark he’s put up since 2019. Second, the rest of season projections for minor leaguers are generally underprojected since timing a prospect’s promotion to the big leagues is so tricky. Lastly, anything can happen at any time. Edwin Díaz may not bounce back to dominance, injury could rear its nasty head, and a player’s role could change.

As the saying goes, you can’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket. This analysis has persuaded me that now is the time to trade away future value for current value. As I hover over the “Accept” button and anticipate the “ding!” of my email followed by the flash of “A trade has been accepted in your league”, I take a deep breath and cross my fingers for an Edwin Díaz rest of season 20+ saves.