Orrico’s Observations: 5 Early Season SP Breakouts To Believe In

The 2026 fantasy baseball season is still in its infancy, and in the grand scheme of things, we don’t really know what to expect over the next ~six months. Established studs will disappoint, new fantasy heroes will emerge, and performances will undulate to the point of causing madness. The unpredictability is why we have so much fun playing and analyzing this game of ours.

With that being said, trends are starting to set in and there are a few players that I am believing in more and more as the sample sizes continue to grow and the data becomes clearer. In this article, I’ll be highlighting five pitchers who have shown signs of breaking out that I believe will be sustainable throughout the 2026 season.

There will undoubtedly be some ups and downs, but I believe these arms are worth picking up/trading for before they become the established studs that I think they’ll develop into.

Kyle Harrison

I’m sure that the Giants and Red Sox are not exactly thrilled with how Kyle Harrison has looked to begin the season. He’s made two starts thus far, pitching to a 2.61 ERA, 2.59 SIERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 26.8 K-BB%. His chase rate has jumped from 30.5% to 36% and his SwStr% is also trending upward, sitting right now at a robust 13%. Harrison is also excelling from a pitch modelling standpoint. His Stuff+ is 105, and his Location and Pitching+ are 9th and 17th, respectively, among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 IP this season. The Brewers appear to have unlocked something with Harrison, and I believe he has the chance to finish as a Top 25/30 SP this season. If you are playing on a site with shallower rosters, Yahoo and ESPN in particular, there is a good chance he is still sitting on your waiver wire.

Taj Bradley

Taj Bradley has appeared to be on the verge of a breakout for some time now, but the 25-year-old looks better than ever to begin the 2026 season. He’s made three starts, and is sitting pretty with a 1.08 ERA, 2.69 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 25.7 K-BB%. He’s allowing less in-zone contact and his 12.8 SwStr% is a career-best mark. His fastball velo is up almost a full MPH, and his stuff is the best we’ve ever seen it. All four of his offerings grade out at 110 or better, and his 115 overall Stuff+ is tied for second among all qualified SPs, behind only Tarik Skubal. Bradley is another arm that is still likely available to those playing in shallower formats, and I wouldn’t hesitate to pick him up everywhere you can.

Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter’s first 35 major league starts left something to be desired, but he seems to have unlocked a new level this year. While we are only talking about two starts and 11 IP, Leiter’s strikeout:walk ratio is currently 17:2, which is a tremendous sign following a year with a very pedestrian 12.5 K-BB%. His already very good stuff is up across the board this season, and he has the benefit of learning from established veterans such as Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Globe Life Field has also been one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball over the last couple of seasons, meaning we can feel really good about starting Leiter whenever he takes the mound at home. With legit major league pedigree and a great college career behind him, I’m starting to firmly believe that this will be his breakout campaign.

Joe Boyle

Joe Boyle’s talent has never been in question, it was always about how his command would develop, and we’ve seen some really good signs so far this season. He’s made significant changes to his pitch mix, most notably using his fastball much less in favor of a new sinker. This has been paired with more splitters plus a 9% increase in sliders. The results? His strike% is up over 66%, compared with 61% and 56% over the past two seasons. In his 11 IP of work, he has a 3.18 ERA, 3.03 SIERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 21.7 K-BB%. He’s walking just 6% of batters and that is most important ingredient in his recipe for success. This pitch mix seems to be working very well for him, and in some excited to see if his changes lead to the sustained success that I think they will.

Will Warren

Will Warren has quietly impressed me through his first two starts of the season. With the obvious caveat that it’s still very early, he’s allowing just a 76.4% Z-Contact and the free passes haven’t been an issue for him, at just 5%. His velocity is up across his entire arsenal, and his stuff has also seen a big increase. His fastball, in particular, is up to a 120 Stuff+. His 122 Pitching+ is second among all qualified SPs behind just Tarik Skubal. While pitching in Yankee Stadium can be a frightening proposition, I believe Warren has the skillset to pitch anywhere and will continue to get stronger as the season goes on.