Observable Real Time Strategy

Hey Justin Mason, this industry slow draft thing was a good idea! I’m of course referring to The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational aka TGFBI aka NFBC for industry nerds. The most beautiful thing about it? I can report on my internal thought process in real time. In a typical draft, everything happens too quickly. Any after-the-fact explanation feels like a self-congratulatory narrative.

With four hours per pick and 15 owners taking their sweet time*, I can very thoughtfully tinker and tailor my approach. Spying is an option too (you’ll see), but I haven’t found a role for soldiering. As I mentioned last Friday, the original plan was to take a contrarian approach. I’m not just trying to beat 14 other industry rivals, I want to win the whole shabam. Achieving ultimate victory requires out-drafting, out-managing, and out-waiver wiring 194 opponents. It’s a tall order. To this point, my roster isn’t feeling very contrary. Let’s explore.

*I’m in League 12 of 13. We’re the slowest drafting group which has the added benefit of giving us ADP from the other leagues.

We’ve completed nine rounds. I select third; a position I do not recommend to anybody. My attempted contrarianism began with my first selection. Although Trea Turner is a consensus third or fourth overall asset, the way one builds a roster around Turner is very different from every other first rounder.

Pivot #1: While I hoped to get Freddie Freeman or J.D. Martinez to help balance Turner’s weaknesses, they went just ahead of my second pick. Plan B was to double up on pitchers at the second and third round turn. The thought process was to build an indomitable rotation and bullpen, while trusting myself to find breakout bats later.

I chose Noah Syndergaard 28th overall with Stephen Strasburg or Luis Severino my intended target at pick 33. The guy after me, a lucky bastard who was handed Mike Trout with the second pick, took Strasburg then followed with Justin Verlander.

Pivot #2: The whole point of aiming for Pitcher Dominion is to corner a market. By the time my third pick came around, I already had competition. There were 12 other owners who could potentially join the pitcher parade, especially the guys who took one of the four consensus aces. Indeed one of them selected four pitchers in the first five rounds.

Fortunately, I called an audible after seeing Verlander go. While Severino was still mighty tempting, I settled for Alex Bregman instead. I’m not thrilled about the pick. I’m hoping he hits home runs in both halves of the season while continuing to supply solid five category production. I like his shortstop eligibility too in a deep league. My alternatives were Brian Dozier or Corey Seager.

The idea was to take a big power bat in the fourth round. Khris Davis beckoned. However, I found myself ensnared by the ultra-steady Anthony Rendon. I selected him 58th. The latest he went in any league was 59th overall. I had also looked at Davis, Byron Buxton, Justin Turner, and Eric Hosmer for this pick.

Davis beckoned again at pick 63. But…

Pivot #3: At this point, Buxton had an ADP of 51. Davis and Turner both had ADPs of 62 – right on par with my pick. Hosmer legitimately had a chance to get back to me with an 82 ADP. No league had picked Buxton later than 63rd, and hey! I picked 63rd!

That’s not entirely why I took Buxton instead of the steady power doled out by Davis. I intended to reach for Joey Gallo who I figure will almost perfectly replicate Davis’ batting line minus 20 points of batting average. I could get my 40 homers later while sewing up stolen bases and runs scored early in the draft.

By the time pick 88 rolled around a day later, Robinson Cano was a no-brainer insta-pick. While his 2016 light show might have been a last hurrah, I’m not prepared to give up quite yet. His 2017 production alone easily justifies this price. Seattle has the depth to give him a few DH days to help keep him fresh.

Pivot #4: Out-reached! Gallo stolen! My plan was to pop Cano #88 then snag Gallo with #93. Alas, Gallo was taken immediately after Cano. I can’t even chastise myself. Cano was definitely the right pick. Oh well.

To this point, my pitching staff was looking a little… thin. Masahiro Tanaka wasn’t a sexy pick, but he should supply a healthy dose of victories. I always struggle in the win column. I passed up my favored Zack Godley to get Tanaka – mostly because I own soooo many shares of Godley.

Adjustment #1: Reliable saves were starting to disappear around pick 118. I looked at Ken Giles. I looked at Edwin Diaz. I looked back to Giles. I clicked draft. Ultimately, I don’t have a strong preference between the two of them. They’re both elite firemen who appear to be prone to slumps.

Updated Value #1: With Yuli Gurriel nursing a hamate injury, Marwin Gonzalez should be cleared for everyday action. As I noted in this entirely unnecessary article about Daniel Castro, I basically believe in the adjustments Gonzalez made over the last four years. It appears they’ve all finally clicked together to form a sort of air ball era Ben Zobrist. He’s eligible to play everywhere but catcher, third base, and pitcher.

My top alternatives at the time with J.T. Realmuto, Gregory Polanco, Justin Smoak, and DJ LeMahieu. All were selected by the end of the ninth round.

Next Up

After nine picks, I’ve yet to hard-commit to a strategy. I’m on pace to hit most of my offensive targets except for home runs. I’m 27 big flies behind my target pace – a gap that will only get worse over the remainder of the draft. Fortunately, all of my hitters have some power upside. For example, Cano homered 39 times in 2016. I have him penciled in for 25 blasts. Bregman popped 19 last year after basically blanking the first three months. He’s tabbed for 20 this year, but 30 feels possible. Turner could exceed his 13 homer projection. The list goes on…

As for pitchers, I’m putting a lot of pressure on Thor and Tanaka. Both are elevated injury risks who could also finish among the top 10 arms in the league. It’s a bold strategy.