Noteworthy OOPSY ROS Projections for Bats: April Edition

Now that one month of the season is in the books, it’s a fine time to check which hitters have improved their projections the most. To do this, I’ll refer to OOPSY rest of season (ROS) projections, a system I introduced at FanGraphs this offseason. OOPSY ROS is updated each day. Even though I focus on OOPSY ROS in this article, most of the referenced players have improved their projections across the different systems available at FanGraphs. For each player, I’ll also offer commentary on where I’d draft them in a standard 15-team Main Event league that was starting today, informed by a healthy mix of the FanGraphs auction calculator using OOPSY ROS and vibes.

Bear in mind that, across all projection systems, pre-2025 data still weighs much more heavily than 2025 data as pre-2025 covers a much larger sample of data. In fact, a single season typically never comprises more than half of the weight in a projection system, as projection systems usually weigh at least three years of historical data. Nonetheless, enough of the season is now in the books for certain players to have meaningfully altered their projections. The numbers referenced in this piece were collected on April 26th. I’ll take a look at pitchers in my next piece.

Ben Rice

Ben Rice has improved his wOBA projection by 28 points since the preseason, making him one of April’s biggest gainers. Posting a .454 xwOBA over your first 92 plate appearances will tend to have that effect. Rice has tripled his hard swing rate, from 15% to 46%, while adding seven percentage points to his barrel rate, all without sacrificing contact. As a refresher, hard swing rate captures the proportion of swings at 75 MPH or greater, a threshold associated with greatly improved offensive outcomes. OOPSY now has Rice as the second best hitter on the Yankees and a top 50 hitter in baseball, basically viewing Rice how it viewed Triston Casas entering the year–and viewing Rice ahead of Casas at this point. The only question is playing time: with Giancarlo Stanton potentially nearing a return, and Paul Goldschmidt hitting, he could find himself rested a decent amount, limiting his short-term value somewhat.

Where I’d draft him in a standard 5×5 15-team Main Event format that drafted today: pick 180, around where Paul Goldschmidt was getting drafted this year. He could jump into the top 100 in 2026, with Goldschmidt leaving for free agency, although one of my hypothetical leaguemates might be ready to draft him around pick 100 already.

Kyren Paris

Kyren Paris has improved his projections substantially, adding 22 points of wOBA, with a hot start featuring plenty of power and speed. He has added a couple of miles per hour to his average bat speed, pushing it to 74 MPH, into the comfortably-above-average range. He still strikes out a ton, with a K% over 30%, but he has hit enough to lay claim to an everyday job at second base. His wOBA projection remains below average, so there’s playing time risk here, with Yoán Moncada’s eventual return and Christian Moore’s eventual promotion posing some threat. At press time, the Angels had benched Paris for two of the last three games.

Where I’d draft him today: Paris would be a boom-bust pick in drafts today, offering major stolen base upside paired with heightened playing time risk. I think someone might take him around pick 180, a little after where Brice Turang was going this offseason, but I’d be more comfortable waiting until the mid-300s, well after Tyler Fitzgerald, who possesses a similar profile, but less playing time risk.

Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda has gotten off to a scorching hot start this season, boosting his wOBA projection by 16 points. Compared to Ben Rice, his gains have been more balanced, coming in the form of better plate discipline, more contact, and a modest increase in bat speed and barrel rate. His projection is now Rice-lite, trailing him by only a few points of wRC+. Aranda was platooned to start the year, but has started against two of the last three lefties–he has simply been too good to bench.

Where I’d draft him today: I love Aranda’s talent but worry a little bit about the platoon, particularly given Tampa’s love for platoons. I’d be considering him slightly after Ben Rice, so around pick 190, after Yandy Díaz, where Michael Toglia was being drafted this offseason. 

Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz has seen his wOBA projection decline by 10 points relative to the preseason. He has been making a lot of contact, just not the high impact kind. His average bat speed has only declined slightly, but this masks a more substantial decline in his hard swing rate. Hard swing rate is more closely tied to offensive success than average bat speed, although the two are typically highly correlated. Ortiz is also running a bit less in the early going. The good news is that he has managed to start almost every game at shortstop–his defense should help maintain his status as a low-end fantasy contributor.

Where I’d draft him today: I’d be comfortable with Ortiz as my primary backup MI, so perhaps somewhere in the late 300s could make sense.

Willy Adames

Willy Adames has maintained BB% and K% aligned with preseason expectations, but his power has not shown up so far in 2025. He should positively regress a good amount, but OOPSY has docked him 8 wOBA points for the slow start, driven by a 50% decline in his hard swing rate. Adames is also running less often after a career year in thefts in 2024.

Where I’d draft him today:

Adames has fallen from 8th best Projected shortstop to 14th per the FanGraphs auction calculator. That’d put him around 140th pick in a draft that happened today, which feels reasonable to me. I still prefer him to Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, for instance, two names that were typically drafted a bit after pick 140 this offseason.

Where I’d draft them today: quick hits

Corbin Carroll has taken his power up a notch, with big improvements in barrel rate and bat speed. He was OOPSY’s 11th favorite fantasy hitter entering the year per the FanGraphs auction calculator–he’s now up to 4th best, behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Bobby Witt Jr., which feels right to me.

Pete Alonso is now OOPSY’s 15th favorite fantasy hitter, up 10 spots from the offseason, as he has somehow improved his already elite power and swing speed metrics, while slashing his K% and improving his BB%. Considering him in the early second round seems easily justified.

OOPSY buys Iván Herrera’s small sample early performance, now viewing him as one of the game’s top hitting catchers once he returns from the knee injury. You’d have to stash him for a few weeks if drafting today, but I’d draft him around pick 150 nonetheless–Austin Wells offseason ADP territory.

OOPSY believes in the early bounceback performances from Nolan Arenado and Jorge Polanco, although the latter is in a strong-side platoon. I’d be comfortable selecting Arenado around pick 165 today, near Alec Bohm’s ADP, almost 100 picks earlier than Arenado went in the offseason. OOPSY also likes what it sees from Brendan Rodgers, this year’s biggest qualified bat speed gainer. Polanco and especially Rodgers would still only be worth fliers toward the end of drafts given playing time concerns.

OOPSY is not at all worried about slow starts for Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan McMahon, and Luis Robert Jr.. Pasquantino and McMahon are both swinging harder than ever, while Robert Jr.’s stickier metrics, barrel rate, bat speed, and K rate, are pretty aligned with career norms. Pasquantino indeed has sacrificed contact while swinging harder, but both his increased K% and increased swing speed are accounted for by OOPSY ROS. I won’t be judging them harshly for the slow starts; I will be sending out feeler offers in leagues with trading. Digging into Pasquantino a bit more, his hard swing rate has improved from 20% in 2024 to 44% in 2025. Using historical data from 2023 and 2024 across a sample of 480 hitters with data in both years, a 10 percentage point improvement in (regressed) hard swing rate was associated with a 4-point improvement in projected wRC+ (p<.001, using OLS weighted by the lesser PA amount a player had between 2023 and 2024), broadly aligned with the bump in Pasquantino’s projection.

Nathaniel Lowe has been excellent to start the year, but OOPSY views the gains as superficial, helped by an unsustainably high BABIP. His K% is way up at 30%, and his swing speed is down a few miles per hour. Lowe should continue to be solid and was probably underrated entering the year–his 257 preseason ADP still feels about right.

Although he still projects as a slightly above average bat, OOPSY is a bit down on Jasson Domínguez relative to the offseason given he’s only swinging hard 25% of the time, down from 57% in both 2023 and 2024. The playing time has mostly been there so far but I am worried about more rest days in the near future on a stacked Yankees team. His preseason ADP was 140 but I’d feel more comfortable around 240 at this point. He should still be excellent long-term, however.