Noteworthy OOPSY ROS Projections for Arms: Early May Edition
With about 20% of the season in the books, I wanted to see which arms have altered their projections the most relative to the preseason, like I did a few weeks back for bats. To do this, I’ll refer to OOPSY rest of season (ROS) projections, a system I introduced at FanGraphs this offseason. So far this year, OOPSY has held its own with other top projection systems featured at FanGraphs. I have a great respect for each of those systems, and would be happy enough to not embarrass myself in comparison. For each player, I’ll also offer my best guess on where I’d draft them in a standard 15-team Main Event league that was starting today, informed by a healthy mix of the FanGraphs auction calculator using OOPSY ROS and vibes.
Bear in mind that, across all projection systems, pre-2025 data still weighs much more heavily than 2025 data as pre-2025 covers a much larger sample of data. Like for bats, a single season typically never comprises more than half of the weight in a projection for arms, as projection systems usually weigh at least three years of historical data. The quickest ways for a pitcher to improve their projections are to improve their stuff, rack up strikeouts and limit walks, and keep the ball on the ground. These are reliable indicators of pitching talent that weigh heavily in all projection systems, not just OOPSY. In contrast, BABIP, home run per fly ball rate, and left-on-base percentage are less reliable metrics that typically require a large sample of data to significantly alter projections. The numbers referenced in this piece were collected on May 6th.
Hunter Greene has been fantastic to start the year, with a 29 K% minus BB% while showcasing the best Stuff+ of any starting pitcher. He has always been a strong performer by Stuff+, but he has improved the metric from 113 to 126 this year, helped by improved average fastball velocity (99.2 MPH). OOPSY now has Greene at a Great-American-proof 3.27 ERA, down around .3 runs from the preseason. While OOPSY is higher on Greene than THE BAT and Steamer, each of the ROS projections have registered significant improvements relative to the preseason.
Where I’d draft him in a standard 5×5 15-team Main Event format that drafted today: Greene is OOPSY’s fourth ranked starting pitcher for the rest of the season according to the auction calculator, while he was the 26th SP off the board in Main Event drafts this preseason. While I’m an OOPSY homer as its creator, I do put some weight on other projection systems–not to mention his checkered injury history–and Depth Charts has him as 18th best starting pitcher the rest of the way. I’d be comfortable splitting the difference and making him the 12th-ish SP off the board if I were drafting today.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has taken his game to the next level, shaving .3 runs off his OOPSY ERA projection so far this year. His 95.5 MPH fastball velocity, average-ish Stuff+, and low-20s K% minus BB% are similar to last year–reassuring to see after his mid-2024 rotator cuff strain–and he has made strides in keeping the ball on the ground, pushing his ground ball rate to a Framber Valdez-ian 62%. Ground ball rate is a highly reliable metric, on par with K% and BB% in terms of stickiness. Yamamoto is locked in, with a 3.12 ERA projection that ranks fourth amongst starting pitchers, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Spencer Strider.
Where I’d draft him today: He was the 13th starting pitcher off the board in the preseason but there are only a handful of pitchers I could draft before him at this point: Skubal, Skenes, Zack Wheeler, Chris Sale, and maybe Garrett Crochet. Depth Charts agrees with OOPSY on this one.
At 4.26, J.T. Ginn’s ERA projection is amongst the most improved of the young season. He has added one mile per hour of fastball velocity, while showcasing league average Stuff+. The projection gains have been more driven by 24 innings of strong peripherals (K%, BB%, GB%) across Triple-A and the majors. While his MLB ERA is nothing special at 4.61, he has compiled a league average K% minus BB% and lots of ground balls. Ginn is currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation, but he’s expected to begin a rehab assignment this week.
Where I’d draft him today: While much improved, Ginn’s projections remain fairly worldy, weighed down by his performance in previous years. Still, he is worth stashing as a late flier toward the end of drafts to see if the early 2025 performance gains stick. Projections can move rapidly for players with a limited MLB track record.
It feels like Shane Baz has already lived through multiple seasons in 2025, with three elite starts, one okay start, and two blowups. Taken together, his OOPSY and Steamer projections are much improved relative to the preseason, helped by an increased K%, a one MPH increase in fastball velocity, and improvements to his curveball. Baz willl likely continue to allow his fair share of home runs given a high fly ball rate, however.
Where I’d draft him today: OOPSY ranks Baz as the 68th best starting pitcher the rest of the way, neck and neck with Taj Bradley, another tantalizing Rays arm. OOPSY strongly preferred Bradley entering the year, but given his slow start combined with Baz’s hot start, the gap has been closed. I’m part of a likely minority of people that’d still go with Bradley over Baz given Bradley’s ostensible edge in durability, but it’s basically a toss up for me now.
Shota Imanaga has a stellar 2.82 ERA on the season, but his ERA projections have gone up by .15 to .30 runs across projection systems. What gives? While Imanaga’s stuff is similar to last year, his K%, BB%, and fly ball rate have each worsened significantly. Projection systems do not give much credit for a shiny ERA propped up by a likely unsustainable .222 BABIP and 87% left-on-base. He’s now out with a mild hamstring strain until late May or early June.
Where I’d draft him today: While Imanaga’s BABIP and ERA will likely regress toward the mean when he returns from injury, projection systems also expect his K% and BB% to regress positively, partially offsetting the likely BABIP increases. OOPSY rates him as the 47th best starting pitcher the rest of the way, down 14 spots from the preseason, while Steamer has dropped him from 17th to 37th. Even with his stock slightly down, he’s of course absolutely still worth stashing until he returns from injury.
Where I’d draft them today: quick hits
Hunter Brown and Cristopher Sánchez have made good on considerable preseason hype thus far in 2025, with OOPSY now viewing them as top 25 starting pitchers, both up around 20 spots compared to the preseason. Jordan Hicks is the anti-Imanaga, a pitcher who has managed to improve his projections across most systems despite poor surface-level results. Projections are paying more attention to the strong SIERA and xFIP than to the 6.03 ERA fueled by a 57% left-on-base. I like Hicks as a late flier if he’s able to stick in the rotation–which is far from assured with Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong breathing down his neck. Jesús Luzardo has improved from 69th ranked OOPSY starting pitcher to 41st with his strong start, while Max Meyer has emerged as a reliable SP6 or SP7 in a 15-team context.
Steamer and OOPSY adore Tylor Megill even more than they did in the preseason, which I didn’t think was even possible. His auction calculator rank is weighed down by assumed relief innings, which seems overly pessimistic; I view him as a top 50 starting pitcher and would be glad to have him as my SP4 at this point. Tarik Skubal has managed to cut his miniscule OOPSY preseason ERA projection even further, down to 2.64. He has distanced himself from the rest of the pack, with Paul Skenes’ next best OOPSY ERA projection at 2.77.
Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Kumar Rocker have each seen their projections worsen while battling shoulder injuries, never a preferred combination. Probably none will be as good as OOPSY expected in the preseason, but all should bounceback to a good extent in terms of K% minus BB%, health permitting. Tobias Myers, Osvaldo Bido, Jeffrey Springs, and Yusei Kikuchi have each seen their projections worsen after a month of poor K% minus BB%s. Of these arms, I have the most faith in Yusei Kikuchi bouncing back as he still projects as a solid midrotation option in 15-teamers on the back of his longer track record of relative success. The others should probably be reserved for streaming purposes at this point.
I don’t have much to say here other than I’m delighted by what you have to say about Tyler Megiill. I’m a Met fan and always saw him as a potentially great pitcher.
But now down to business. I can’t find any way to contact you other than X which I won’t use so I’ll ask my question in a comment here. People have often wondered what Ted Williams and Joe Dimaggio would have done if they hadn’t lost 3 years to WWII, and additional to more to the Korean WAR for Williams. Hank Greenburg lost 3.5 seasons. Could you do OOPSY projections on them to see what we could have expected from them in the missing seasons? Is that even possible?