NL Closer Report: May 7th

Strong Performers

Heath Bell |Padres

Bell boasts a 2.10 xFIP on the season, with 13.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Of course, just about every San Diego reliever is thrashing opposing batters: the Padres have a league-best 3.30 ‘pen xFIP.

Jonathan Broxton |Dodgers

Big Jon has a career-best 15.3 swinging strike rate this year, quite the accomplishment considering he posted 14.5% marks in 2008 and 2009. Batters are flailing at his stuff to the tune of a 40.7 outside swing percentage (27% MLB average). The result? a 1.21 xFIP, with 14.9 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9 in 9.2 IP.

Billy Wagner |Braves

Wagner continues pumping mid-90’s gas, getting swinging strikes 12.2 percent and inducing weak contact: his infield/fly percentage is 18.2 percent (the MLB average is around 11%). He hasn’t gotten many save ops, but he has a 3.08 xFIP, 13.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 10 innings of work.

Carlos Marmol |Cubs

In 13.2 innings, the Cubs’ stopper has punched out 27 hitters.. That’s 17.78 K/9 (eat your heart out, Broxton). Marmol’s swinging strike rate is 17.1 percent, and he’s actually getting ahead of hitters for a change (66.7 first pitch strike%, compared to a career 52.6% average). That has resulted in 4.61 BB/9, downright surgical control for a guy who issued nearly eight free passes per nine frames last year. His xFIP sits at two.

Brian Wilson |Giants

Wilson’s whiffing a career-high 10.97 per nine innings, with 4.22 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP in 10.2 innings. He’s getting plenty of grounders, with a 69.2 GB%, and he’s getting ahead in the count (73.3 first pitch strike percentage). While Wilson has typically used his mid-90’s fastball about 70 percent of the time, he’s going to his high-80’s cutter more than ever this season.

Steady Performers

Chad Qualls |Diamondbacks

Huh? What’s Qualls doing here?

Arizona’s relief corps has a ghastly 5.12 xFIP for the season (only the Indians have a worse mark), but Qualls shouldn’t be discarded based on his 7.36 ERA. He sports a 3.16 xFIP in 11 IP, with 9 K/9, 3.27 BB/9 and typical ground ball tendencies (54.3 GB%). Needless to say, hits won’t continue to fall in against him 39.4 percent of the time, his 61.7% strand rate will rise, and he won’t give up home runs like he’s throwing underhanded on a little league field (25 HR/FB%). Available in nearly a quarter of Yahoo leagues, Qualls is a good buy-low candidate.

Francisco Rodriguez |Mets

K-Rod has a microscopic ERA (0.71 in 12.2 IP), but that has much to do with a .233 BABIP, a 92.9% strand rate and nary a home run surrendered. His xFIP is 4.07, so he’s not suddenly dealing like he did during his halcyon Angels days in the early-and-mid-aughts.

Matt Capps |Nationals

Capps is racking up saves and has a 1.10 ERA. To the former Pirate’s credit, he is pitching decently: 8.82 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 3.90 xFIP. Capps’ outside swing rate (39.5%) and swinging strike rate (11.3%) are career bests. But he’s not going to continue to strand 91.4% of base runners, and his HR/FB% of five will likely rise.

Leo Nunez |Marlins

Like the two guys ahead of him, Nunez has a fantastic ERA (0.79) and merely good component stats (8.74 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 3.79 xFIP). His strand rate sits at a perfect 100 percent, and his BABIP is .087. There’s a better chance of the Fish selling out all their remaining home games than Nunez keeping those numbers up.

Francisco Cordero |Reds

Cordero’s xFIPs over the 2007-2010 seasons? 2.82, 3.98, 4.06 and 4.37. He’s not a bad option, but the 35-year-old (this week) shouldn’t be confused with an elite-level reliever. In 16.1 IP, Cordero has 8.27 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Matt Lindstrom |Astros

After posting mediocre peripherals with the Marlins in 2008 (4.24 xFIP) and 2009 (4.65), Lindstrom has started his Astros career with a 3.02 xFIP in 12 IP. He has posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9, with a 58.3 GB% that’s well above his 47.2% career average. According to his Pitch F/X page, Lindstrom is going to a two-seamer, with more horizontal and less vertical break, this season. His first pitch strike percentage was just 54.2 last year, but it’s up to 66% in 2010.

Ryan Franklin |Cardinals

Whatever Faustian bargain Franklin made last year to avoid homers (3.2 HR/FB% in 2009), it has carried over to 2010: he has yet to give up a round-tripper in 12 innings. His control has been fantastic (no walks, 73.9 first pitch strike%), and his xFIP is 3.76.

Franklin Morales |Rockies

The southpaw with the herky-jerky delivery is missing the zone often (6.55 BB/9, 50.9 first pitch strike%), but he hasn’t compensated by missing bats (6.55 K/9, 5.4 swinging strike rate). It’s just 11 innings, but Morales’ 6.46 xFIP suggests that he still has a ways to go. Huston Street, meanwhile, is nearing a return from a shoulder injury.

Fallen on Hard Times

Octavio Dotel |Pirates

Dotel hasn’t been as bad as his 8.74 ERA suggests: quirky BABIP (.411), left on base (50.6%) and HR/FB (16.7%) can happen in a small sample size of 11.1 innings. His xFIP is 4.45, as Dotel is missing plenty of lumber like usual (11.91 K/9) and walking plenty as well (4.76 BB/9).

Keep a close eye on Evan Meek, the 26-year-old former Rule V pick from the Rays. Equipped with low-to-mid-90’s heat, a low-90’s cutter, and low-80’s breaking stuff, Meek has long missed bats and racked up ground balls. His control, however, held him back. Not in 2010. In 17 IP, Meek has a K per inning and 2.65 BB/9, retaining a strong 53.5 GB% and posting a 2.94 xFIP.

Trevor Hoffman |Brewers

With a 6.60 xFIP in 10 innings, the 43-year-old changeup artist is scuffling. Tossing his fastball more and his signature off-speed pitch less, Hoffman’s swinging strike rate has dipped from 10.6% in 2009 to 5.4% this year. Always an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hoffman’s ground ball rate in 2010 is 12.8%. Carlos Villanueva and LaTroy Hawkins are possibilities if Trevor Time continues to be a nightmare for the Brew Crew.

Brad Lidge/Jose Contreras |Phillies

Folding chair 1, Ryan Madson 0. Following surgery to repair his broken right toe (no word on his bruised ego), Madson will be out a minimum of two months.

Speaking of wounded egos, Lidge returned to action on April 30th after spending the first month of the season rehabbing from offseason elbow and knee injuries. So far, he’s sitting 92.5 MPH with his fastball, continuing a decline that has seen his heater dip from an average of 96 MPH in 2005. Lidge wasn’t 7.21 ERA bad in ’09, but he’s got a lot to prove considering the 4.76 xFIP that he posted.

Contreras, meanwhile, is dealing out of the ‘pen. The 38 year-old has 14 K’s and no walks in 8.2 IP so far, with an average fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH and a slider at 88-89 MPH (he was 90-92 MPH with the fastball as a starter, and 85-85 with the slider).