My Latest Holds League Strategy

Strange things happen in holds leagues. The extra pressure to roster relievers often leads to inefficiencies on offense. Meanwhile, the bar is set very high for pitching rates since many owners try to start three closers and three setup men. In my experience, chasing both reliever categories usually comes at the cost of mediocre offensive performance. Today, let’s discuss my latest scheme for having my cake and eating it too (ooh, more cake!)

I only have one recurring holds league, and it’s a bit unique. I play with the folks at MLBTR – the only group of humans better at waiver hawking than me. These same folk also manage the CloserNews twitter account during their shifts. Nothing gets by them. Any strategy involving reactive waiver claims is doomed to fail here. So I prepare to guess ahead.

The league has another important quirk – only three bench spots despite a 6×6 roto format with deep rosters (2C, MI, CI, 5OF) and that tricksy holds requirement. In two years, I’ve scored a combined 94 out of 96 possible points in the saves and holds categories. My offensive performance has been lackluster. Clearly, I’m not optimizing correctly.

In both seasons, I entered July with zero holds. That’s when my strategy pivots from maximizing innings (we also have a taut 1550 IP cap) to holds. I’ve started with very strong closers. With the odd exception of an early season Aroldis Chapman+ for Mookie Betts swap, I’ve found closers to be rather untradeable. When I market my spare saves in July, I run up against satisfied contenders and owners who have given up on the category. Not much of a market there…

My so-called innovation for this year is to start the season with one elite closer and three free holds guys.

First, let’s talk about the cost of holds. Paying for holds is a fools’ game. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. While it’s possible to predict who won’t receive many opportunities, i.e. all Padres relievers, successfully selecting the next 40 hold stud is an exercise in frustration. You figure Holdsy Holdson is a reliable source of holds because he’s accrued 100 over the last three seasons? Guess what, he gets promoted to closer in mid-April. Or his elbow asplodes from overuse. Or his real name is Bryan Shaw, and he’s too mediocre to help you in other stats.

This isn’t to say you should avoid the Dellin Betances and Andrew Millers of the world. The holds just happen to be incidental when you roster them. You’re paying for droolworthy ratios. And those lovely reliever wins don’t hurt either. They’re less random for elite setup men since they’re more likely to pitch in tie games.

Ponying up for Miller is very different than throwing down money on Felipe Rivero. Make no mistake, Rivero will cost $3 to $6 in most holds leagues. He’s a flashy, upsidey name with a not-impossible path to saves. And the Pirates should win 81 games – enough for Rivero to provide value in some role.

While my leaguemates pay for guys like Rivero, I plan to be patient. I might hope to see a high value target like Matt Bush or Hector Rondon slip through the cracks. Mostly, I’ll be looking for $1 relievers in volatile bullpens. Low investment, high churn rate with a lot of PITCHf/x research.

Koda Glover. He posted a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings for the Nationals. Only 7.32 K/9 and 3.20 BB/9. Blech. Debuts, as we know, are not always smooth. Glover fires 97 mph heaters, and he throws a 91 mph slider more often than the fastball. Unlike the great slidermen of our era, Glover was afraid to use the pitch in fastball counts. If he gains that confidence, he won’t be far from ninth inning duties.

In an auction, I should be able to take Glover uncontested at any time in the draft. Go ahead, nominate him early. If somebody else bids, it’s fine. Now there’s an extra Luke Gregerson type without a home. Glover will be cut anyway.

Since my plan is to set a saves baseline with one closer while accumulating early season holds, I’ll need some of my arms to matriculate into the ninth inning. As such, I may need to pay a few bucks for the right targets. This is not the same as paying for holds. I’m paying for expected saves.  Rather than a could-be-closer like Rivero, these should be slap-you-in-the-face obvious like Nate Jones or Sean Doolittle. Otherwise, it’s not worth the expense. I’ll use my other two holds slots to chase down the next Sam Dyson or Cam Bedrosian.

When looking for $1 holds, it’s best to target volatile bullpens. Especially on otherwise good teams (hello Nationals). There are a few of these around the league. We’ll discuss them tomorrow.