Milton Bradley’s Miserable Season

When the Seattle Mariners acquired Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Carlos Silva over the winter, most thought the M’s had stolen a high-OBP hitter with decent pop for a washed up starter with a bum shoulder. Yet, it’s Bradley who’s looking like the scrub so far — while a back-from-the-dead Silva has racked up 1.6 WAR, Milton is mired in a deep offensive funk and has -0.2 WAR in 2010.

No one expected Bradley the replicate his feats of strength over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he posted a .417 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 58 percent better than average (158 wRC+). But both CHONE and ZiPS figured he’d top his 2009 numbers produced as a Cub (.257/.378/.397, .345 wOBA, 108 wRC+). CHONE thought he’d bat .262/.368/.427, upping his wOBA to .353 and his wRC+ to 117. ZiPS projected a .254/.371/.421 line, with a .355 wOBA and a 118 wRC+.

Suffice it to say, Bradley’s bat is falling well short of those expectations. In 205 plate appearances, the switch-hitter has a feeble .207/.299/.346 triple-slash and a .291 wOBA. Safeco Field saps offense, suppressing runs by six percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 (per the Bill James Handbook). But even so, Bradley’s offensive has been, well, offensive — his wRC+ is 80.

The first thing most will point to regarding the 32-year-old’s numbers is his .263 BABIP. And he has been unlucky to an extent — Bradley’s expected BABIP is .303. That’s still below his .319 career BABIP, as well as his BABIP projections from CHONE (.318) and ZiPS (.309).

Why’s that? Bradley’s batted ball distribution is different this season, and the change has not been positive. He’s hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls than usual, with a 35.5 GB% (42.9 GB% from 2007-2009) and a 45.5 FB% (35.7 FB% from ’07 to ’09). Those extra fly balls are weakly hit, as Bradley’s infield/fly ball rate has spiked to 18.2% (8.4 IF/FB% from ’07 to ’09, 7-8% MLB average). Infield flies are basically automatic outs, so the increase in pop ups helps explain the low BABIP.

In addition to hitting the ball up the elevator shaft often, Bradley’s not controlling the strike zone quite as well as he usually does. While still patient, he’s chasing more pitches out of the strike zone (relative to the MLB average):

The extra swings on off-the-plate pitches contribute to his lower-than-projected walk rate of 10.2% (12.8 BB% from CHONE, 14.5 BB% from ZiPS).

On pitches within the zone, Bradley’s coming up empty at the highest rate of his career. His Z-Contact% is 81.4. For reference, his Z-Contact over the 2007-2009 seasons was 82.6%, and the MLB average is about 88%. His overall contact rate is 73.8% (75.8% from ’07 to ’09, 81% MLB average). In addition to making less contact, Milton’s getting caught looking often. According to StatCorner, Bradley’s percentage of PA ending in a called strikeout is 9.3% this season, while the MLB average is 4.5% and his 2007-2009 rate was in the six percent range. Not surprisingly, his K rate is a career-high 31.3%. Whiffs aren’t the end of the world for a hitter who works deep counts and makes things happen when he does put the ball in play, but it’s been a while since Bradley displayed more than middling power — his ISO in 678 PA since the beginning of 2009 is .140.

Bradley should perform better in the months to come, particularly if he shows his trademark plate discipline and limits the pop ups. ZiPS projects a .240/.352/.390 line, with a .338 wOBA. It’s hard to be overly enthusiastic, though. Beside the ever-present injury risk associated with him, Bradley no longer comes with the promise of elite secondary skills — he’s a singles-and-doubles hitter in a park that smiles upon pitchers.