Miller Time And Tropicana

A mixture of beer and orange juice is called a brass monkey. Occasionally, uncreative types will call it a beermosa. A mixture of Miller High Life and Tropicana orange juice is called disgusting. It’s also sometimes referred to as sweetened pisswater. Now that our mixology lesson is over, let’s talk about Brad Miller in his new digs.

He comes with a few desirable attributes. Almost all formats will credit him with shortstop and center field eligibility (or generic outfield). Yahoo, ottoneu, and similar platforms will also hand you second base eligibility.

He has enough power and speed to be a 5×5 roto asset. Still just 26, Miller is coming off arguably his best season at the plate. He hit a decent .258/.329/.402 with 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases. His run production was middling (44 runs, 46 RBI) because he was used at the bottom of the lineup. He also notched a career high 497 plate appearances.

Miller comes with hefty platoon splits, although he’s still young enough to grow out of them. Last season, he posted a solid .348 wOBA against righties and a dreadful .228 wOBA versus southpaws. That makes it easy for fantasy owners to manage him. Just select the starts against righties.

The Rays acquired Miller in the first big swap of the offseason, sending Nate Karns and parts to Seattle for the young utility man. Usually, moving to Tropicana field means reduced offensive output, but that might not be the case for Miller.

While his 81 games at Tropicana will affect his value, the stadium isn’t much worse for left-handed offense than Safeco Field. Additionally, he’ll now get 27 games in offensive havens like Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards, and the Rogers Centre (Fenway isn’t great for lefties).

Miller’s batted ball profiles hint at better days ahead. Joining a Rays organization that now stresses the same hitting principles as the Royals could also help him achieve a breakout. He was a very balanced hitter last season. You can see it in the spray chart.

He leans a little to the opposite field on fly balls and pulls more ground balls. This is quite common. Overall, 33 percent were pulled, 32 percent went oppo, and the remaining 35 percent were up the middle. On the balls in play Statcast picked up, he made above average contact – 30 percent were hard hit and another 52 percent were medium. As you would expect from a spray hitter, Miller has few glaring gaps in his zone profile (namely up and away).

Assuming he buys into the Rays hitting philosophy, a more aggressive approach in the strike zone should help him to cut down on his strikeout rate. Of course, he’ll also trade some walks. If both conditions occur, it’s good for standard roto owners. His average could rise into the .270 to .290 band. Unfortunately, I don’t see much room for breakout in OBP leagues.

The Rays will undoubtedly look to platoon Miller. I could see him filling a Ben Zobrist-type role for the organization. He may win the shortstop job outright, and he’s a decent enough defender to stick at the position. In over 2,000 innings, he has saved a whopping one run defensively. League average ain’t a bad thing.

While the Mariners tried him in the outfield, he’ll require some polishing before he fits out there for the defensively conscious Rays. He lost over 14 runs on defense in just 253 innings. As we know, defensive metrics are hinky with small samples, but we can still assume he was bad.

The safe bet is to expect a repeat of 2015 – some home runs and stolen bases, predictable part time play, and positional utility. That makes him a great late-draft target. He’ll also come equipped with breakout potential. If he solves little flaws in his game, he could be this year’s Mike Moustakas.