Mike Montgomery is No Ordinary Sixth Starter

It’s not as if the Chicago Cubs’ trade for started-turned-reliever-turned-starter Mike Montgomery came cheap. Dan Vogelbach isn’t a top-flight prospect, but with plus power and a solid plate approach at Triple-A Iowa this season, it’s not like he’s a nobody, either.

Then again, neither is Montgomery. A supplemental first-round pick almost 10 years ago, he was a Kansas City Royals top-5 prospect for four straight years and a Baseball America top-40 prospect for three of them. Then 2012 came; he was thrown into the James Shields–Wade Davis–Wil Myers–Jake Odorizzi blockbuster before continuing to generally fail to impress anyone. The Seattle Mariners acquired him in 2015, the year in which he debuted, in exchange for Erasmo Ramirez, and Montgomery delivered 16 suboptimal starts. He’s in Chicago now, providing relief every sixth day to a starting rotation that has generated the best staff WHIP in more than 100 years. Cool. Got that out of the way.

Montgomery is no ordinary sixth starter, though. I beg you to read this automated scouting report generated by Brooks Baseball regarding Montgomery’s pitches and their outcomes in 2016. Extreme number of ground balls. Blazing fast. Extremely high number of swings & misses. The remarks for all five of Montgomery’s pitches are, in a word, glowing.

Montgomery’s change-up was always a big deal. Baseball America ranked it the best change-up in the Royals’ system after the 2011 and 2012 seasons. That the pitch rates out as his most effective — it induces whiffs on more than 55 percent of swings and generates ground balls on two-thirds(!) of all balls in play — should not surprise us. To date, it has recorded a 40-percent strikeout rate (K%) and allowed only one extra-base hit. Per Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboard, it ranks fourth in raw whiffs among all change-ups. That’ll do.

Speaking of ground balls, all of Montgomery’s pitches induce them at least 55 percent of the time. Only five qualified starting pitchers have overall ground ball rates (GB%) better than Montgomery’s “worst” ground ball pitch. Even Marcus Stroman, Major League Baseball’s groundballiest starter, throws a four-seam fastball that generates a lowly 37-percent ground ball rate. A good way to succeed is to not allow home runs. A good way to not allow home runs is to not allow fly balls.

That’s not to say Montgomery has succeeded in regard to home run prevention; he has allowed home runs on 16.3 percent of fly balls (16.3% HR/FB), well above league average, so there’s certainly room for improvement. Which brings me, as always, to the lede that I inevitably bury: Montgomery is trying to improve.

Because not all of Montgomery’s pitches shine even with excellent worm-killing tendencies. His fastball and sinker coerce merely average and below-average whiff rates despite newfound velocity for each. Both have allowed Montgomery’s worst isolated power (ISO) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) marks by individual pitch.

It’s good, then, this trade that sent Montgomery to the North Side. Because that’s when he stopped throwing aforementioned his sinker, his most vulnerable pitch. I don’t know if that’s his own adjustment or a recommendation that Pitching Coach Chris Bosio made to him. Montgomery threw a few sinkers in each of his first two relief appearances as a Cub but has otherwise eradicated it from his repertoire, except during this one start:

We’re talking small samples here — it seems like we always are — but Montgomery has induced a swinging strike rate in five starts that would rank fifth among qualified starters if sustained for a full season.

If he’s not throwing a sinker anymore, what is he throwing? Great question, friendo. Montgomery is throwing his cutter more. And his cutter is what some might call “stupid good.”

To be clear, it’s not his filthiest pitch. Its 27.3-percent whiff rate ranks a full standard deviation better than a league-average cutter, but that’s only half as often as his change-up, so it just feels inferior. Its ground ball rate, though? Almost 70 percent. And its fly ball rate? ZERO PERCENT. Zero! Again, small sample — 19 total balls in play against his cutter — but not a single one classified as an outfield fly ball. Sure, there are some line drives and pop-ups sprinkled in there, but, hey, this is still uncommon. Only eight other pitches in all of baseball have not allowed a single fly ball this season (minimum 100 pitches thrown; courtesy of Baseball Prospectus again). And only two of them have better ground ball rates — looking at you, Jose Berrios and Adam Ottavino.

With the omission of his sinker and increased reliance on his cutter, Montgomery is trending in the right direction. Complaints about his command abound — valid complaints, they are, given his mediocre 3.33 walks per nine innings (BB/9) on the season and 4.44 BB/9 in the five starts highlighted above. Yet maybe that’s not the fairest characterization, because Montgomery very clearly has a spot in the zone that he likes, and he hits it quite often. Against lefties. Against righties. Doesn’t really matter. And hitters, they swing at it — not often, but they do. And when they do, they whiff. A lot.

The narrative applies to the rest of the strike zone’s perimeter: Montgomery has been elite at limiting contact on out-of-zone pitches (O-Contact%); he just doesn’t induce that many swings on his junk offerings, making for the possibility of extreme strikeout and walk rates. Meanwhile, Montgomery’s off-speed stuff, thrown more than 55 percent of the time, has allowed a .168 BABIP all year. Some might cry regression, but he’s also exhibiting hallmarks of excellent contact management. It’s a hell of a stretch of a comparison, but that sounds a lot like a left-handed Jake Arrieta, no? Too many walks but elite contact suppression?

Montgomery’s recent success — loosely defined, when looking at his ERA — could all stem from his large uptick in velocity, which he has mostly sustained in his conversion from the bullpen back to the rotation. But velocity does not a pitcher make (right, Yordano?), and Montgomery has had to learn how to reconcile his newfound velocity gains with his stuff. He’s still learning.

I can only speculate as to who’s inciting the tinkering, whether it’s Bosio or Montgomery himself (or perhaps a recommendation from a fellow rotation-mate). Even with the tinkering, Montgomery is far from perfect. Yet he has the makings to become a really good starter, albeit a flawed one, for any team. Flawed, yes — he has averaged 76 pitches and a hair less than five innings in his five Cubs starts. The upside is very evidently capped until he lengthens out. Still, he’s a worthy streaming option, should the opportunity arise, against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday and could even take a bite out of a Pirates offense that hits lefties well but has struck out 6th-most often against them.

As for 2017, it’s tough to say. The Cubs would have their rotation locked and loaded, assuming they exercise Jason Hammel’s team option, but they may not. Thus, Montgomery could inherit the No.-5 job or fall into a swingman role. He should be available for spot starts, though. Whatever happens, Montgomery’s a hop, skip, and a jump from fantasy relevance. You just have to squint a little to see it. If I’m in a dynasty or deep keeper, I’m keeping a very close eye on him.