Melky Cabrera Strikes Back

Melky Cabrera has been many things througout his career – prospect, bust, deadbeat, star, cheater, and injured are a few words that describe different phases of his career. After rebounding from a 2013 season that included a scary growth on his spine, Cabrera is now wafting through free agency as a top outfielder. His 81/16/73/6/.301 fantasy line was worth $19, according to Zach Sanders. While he wasn’t a fantasy monster, he was certainly an excellent acquisition for those who drafted him for $1 or picked him up off waivers.

I’ve been on the Cabrera bandwagon for awhile now, having briefly departed as a result of the aforementioned tumor. While most owners take a hands-off approach to PED users, I figure they’ve already done the hard work while doping. It’s easier to maintain the strength one gains from PED use than it is to acquire that strength naturally.

In the case of Cabrera, I’m guessing he lost a good bit of that strength while dealing with the spine issue. My gut says Cabrera simply learned to be a good and balanced contact hitter with around league average power. In other words, I’m not considering his PED history when deciding on an appropriate price tag.

As a hitter, Cabrera brings league average plate discipline with above average contact rates. Overall, he’s nine percentage points better than average at making contact. Incidentally, his swinging strike rate is tiny at 5.1 percent, and he strikes out around 11 percent of the time. That, along with an unimposing .157 ISO, allowed him to post the .301/.351/.458 slash that helped owners in all manner of leagues.

There is good news for owners in a position to keep Cabrera – there is no indication he was lucky in 2014. The bigger issues are – where does he go and where does he bat? Toronto’s Rogers Centre is a hitter and power friendly ball park, so fantasy owners should hope he lands in a similar environment. The White Sox are probably a best case scenario for Cabrera. As for his spot in the batting order, he’s likely to be acquired to bat first or second. From a fantasy perspective, he’s a better two-hole because he can drive in some runs. You’ll also want to hope he’ll latch onto an American League team for the same reason.

This is usually where I highlight problems with the player, but there are few negative indicators. We’ve already seen what he looks like when playing through injury. His power completely evaporated in 2013, yet he still managed an above average batting average. Assuming things never get quite that bleak, we know Cabrera’s floor is still useful (unlike, say, B.J. Upton). He’s entering his age 30 season, which is too early to worry about age. He doesn’t appear to be more or less of an injury risk than the next guy.

In fact, I turned up only one interesting tidbit of information. He’s a pull hitter from both sides of the plate with his power coming exclusively from the pull field. Check it out.

He still sprays the ball around the infield just enough to avoid those BABIP-killing shifts. When batting lefty, it seems like an opposing team should move the second baseman a couple steps toward first and otherwise play straightaway defense. Even the outfield has no need of a shift.

Steamer is more concerned about 2013 than we should be, since it doesn’t know the poor performance resulted from a correctable, career-threatening tumor. As such, I would take the over on 73/13/59/6/.291. In particular, I think he’ll do better in runs scored and RBI. Of course, we have to watch where he ends up and his role. As for a price tag, I think he’ll run between $6 and $15 in most leagues. In a vacuum, I’d buy anywhere within that price range.