McGehee Mashes in Milwaukee

Baseball is a peculiar, charming sport. No matter how many scouting reports you scour or how many numbers you crunch, a player still occasionally comes out of nowhere and makes you say, “who is that?”

In 2009, Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee was one of those players to emerge from Quad-A anonymity.

A 10th-round pick of the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 draft, McGehee was McBoring during his minor league career:

McGehee’s career offensive numbers, by level:

Low-A: .272/.302/.391, 3.9 BB% 17.8 K%
High-A: .261/.310/.394, 6.7 BB%, 14.1 K%
Double-A: .286/.347/.422, 8.9 BB%, 14.7 K%
Triple-A: .282/.335/.410, 7.3 BB%, 14.7 K%

Sure, the righty batter’s numbers improved as he ascended toward the majors. He also dabbled at catcher, second base and first, while spending most of his time at the hot corner. But McGehee looked like a yawn-inspiring infield reserve.

In 2007, McGehee hit .273/.338/.422 in AA. That translated to a .226/.277/.333 triple-slash in the majors, according to Minor League Splits. In 2008, he turned in a .296/.345/.429 line in AAA. Casey’s work in Iowa equated to an unmighty .242/.282/.341 big league showing.

Following an ’08 season in which he got a cup of coffee with the Cubs, McGehee was claimed off waivers by the Brewers. While he wasn’t supposed to be anything more than a depth acquisition, McGehee saw extensive time with the Brew Crew in 2009.

In 394 PA, McGehee compiled a .301/.360/.499 line and a .367 wOBA. The 6-1, 195 pound batter, owner of a career .130 minor league ISO, posted a .197 ISO with Milwaukee. After walking in 7.4 percent of his PA on the farm, McGehee took ball four 8.7 percent in the majors.

He crushed fastballs (+0.82 runs/100 pitches) and changeups (+1.92), while finding big league breaking balls to be more of a challenge (-0.03 for the slider, -0.61 for the curveball). McGehee displayed a rather patient approach, swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone 20.1 percent of the time (25% MLB average).

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should cast a skeptical eye toward McGehee’s offensive feats. His rookie campaign with Milwaukee far surpassed anything that he accomplished in the minors. It’s possible that McGehee has made wholesale improvements in his game, but it would be wise to expect some regression.

The 26 year-old had a .335 BABIP in 2009, compared to a .305 Expected BABIP and a career .319 BABIP in the minors. Bill James foresees a .272/.328/.429 line next year, with a .332 wOBA. CHONE projects a .264/.326/.412 performance (.324 wOBA) in 2010.

McGehee dealt with a bum right knee toward the end of the 2009 season and had arthroscopic surgery in October. However, GM Doug Melvin said that the Cubs castoff “has taken the bull by the horns” in the competition for the third base job.

Lefty-hitting Mat Gamel figures to be the superior hitter (.356 projected wOBA from Bill James and .324 from CHONE). But his third base D is considered cover-your-eyes bad. McGehee rated poorly in a small sample of playing time in ’09, but his minor league numbers suggest he’s average with the leather.

Casey McGehee should be on radar screens, given Milwaukee’s apparent preference to open the season with him at third base. However, it’s worth remembering that Casey’s suddenly mighty bat was silent for many years in the minor leagues. It wouldn’t be surprising if McGehee’s second act comes up short of his initial Milwaukee mashing.