Mason’s Musings: Overreactions

Opening Day started like any other for me in 2018. I was excited and had taken the day off from work so I could settle in on my couch and just watch the games. I had done all my drafts and felt confident that I was going to have a fantastic season.
This was my first season as a cohost of The Sleeper and the Bust podcast as well. Eno Sarris had moved on to a new role in a different company and I had succeeded him to host the show with Paul Sporer. It was a dream gig for me and I was full of piss and vinegar and hot takes. One of the hotter takes Paul and I had was that Ian Happ was going to have a massive season. He was coming off of a fantastic rookie season, hitting .253/.328/.514 with 24 home runs and eight stolen bases in just 413 plate appearances and I believed there was more in the tank for the former top prospect. I drafted him everywhere.
I sat there, on my couch, watching Jose Urena wind up and deliver the first pitch of the new season and then it happened…
HE HIT A HOME RUN ON THE FIRST PITCH OF THE MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL SEASON!!!!
I was vindicated. I was ecstatic. I HAD CALLED IT!
I got a text from Paul. He was ecstatic too. We had promoted him all offseason and with one pitch, we began our victory lap.
The problem was that it was March 29th and there were still 161.9 games to play. Happ would go onto hit .233/.353/.408 with 15 home runs and eight stolen bases which was clearly a disappointing outcome after his rookie breakout. I wish this was the only case where I overreacted to a player having a good or bad early season, but it wasn’t even the last time that season.
Didi Gregorius started off the first month of the 2018 season hitting .327/.421/.735 with 10 home runs and two stolen bases. After May 1, he hit .254/.311/.436 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases. Unfortunately for me, I thought the first month sample was a true breakout. Now, there was good reason for me to think so. He had the best contact rates and was hitting the ball the hardest of his career. His BABIP wasn’t out of line and everything under the hood looked fine. He was just having a hot month and I fell for it.
Did I learn my lesson? A little, maybe. I will always remember those moments when other guys seemingly breakout early in spring, but sometimes I still fall for them. You need to be able to move quickly on guys that are breaking out in this day and age of fantasy baseball because you will miss out if you don’t. However, the lesson should be to move quickly but carefully.
Right now here are the top 20 players according to the FanGraphs Player Rater:
| # | Name | Team | POS | ADP | Roster% | Start% | PA | IP | Dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | ATL | C | 78.6 | 100% | 100% | 59 | $45.6 | |
| 2 | José Soriano | LAA | SP | 321.8 | 100% | 98% | 20.0 | $41.9 | |
| 3 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | SP | 144.6 | 100% | 100% | 24.0 | $38.3 | |
| 4 | CJ Abrams | WSN | SS | 65.0 | 100% | 99% | 49 | $38.1 | |
| 5 | Jordan Walker | STL | OF | 511.7 | 99% | 92% | 49 | $34.9 | |
| 6 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | SP | 116.6 | 100% | 100% | 16.1 | $33.4 | |
| 7 | Ben Rice | NYY | C/1B/DH | 53.2 | 100% | 100% | 44 | $32.7 | |
| 8 | Andy Pages | LAD | OF | 133.4 | 100% | 100% | 48 | $32.1 | |
| 9 | Christian Yelich | MIL | OF/DH | 127.2 | 100% | 97% | 46 | $31.1 | |
| 10 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | OF | 92.9 | 100% | 100% | 51 | $30.5 | |
| 11 | Liam Hicks | MIA | C/1B/DH | 748.5 | 89% | 83% | 36 | $30.2 | |
| 12 | Christian Walker | HOU | 1B | 212.9 | 100% | 100% | 55 | $29.1 | |
| 13 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | DH | 33.4 | 100% | 100% | 58 | $28.8 | |
| 14 | Sal Stewart | CIN | 1B | 161.9 | 100% | 100% | 51 | $28.2 | |
| 15 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | 2B | 101.9 | 100% | 99% | 53 | $27.2 | |
| 16 | Shea Langeliers | ATH | C | 54.1 | 100% | 100% | 48 | $27.0 | |
| 17 | Chase DeLauter | CLE | OF/DH | 45 | $26.9 | ||||
| 18 | Wilyer Abreu | BOS | OF | 199.9 | 100% | 100% | 49 | $26.7 | |
| 19 | Max Fried | NYY | SP | 50.1 | 100% | 100% | 20.0 | $26.5 | |
| 20 | Corbin Carroll | ARI | OF | 14.1 | 100% | 100% | 49 | $26.1 |
- Do Not Overspend
If you are getting guys that are hot off of FAAB, don’t go crazy bidding a ton of money. Triple digit bids (in a $1000 FAAB league) rarely work out and using that much of your FAAB this early hamstrings you later even if it does work out on that player. If you are looking to trade for a guy, do not give away a ton of value for an unproven player. The more value you give up in trade, the less you recoup in the deal for your team.
- Selling High Is Rarely A Bad Idea
Yes, some of these guys are going to be true breakouts and others will not. If you can hedge your bets on some of these guys by trading them away for a haul, you can do very well for yourself. Here are the trades for Jordan Walker from the last two days in Yahoo leagues:
| Date | Player | Traded For |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Bubba Chandler PIT – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Ryan O’Hearn PIT – 1B,OF | Reynaldo López ATL – SP, Jack Leiter TEX – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Fernando Tatis Jr. SD – OF, Logan Webb SF – SP, Jeremy Peña HOU – SS | Ranger Suarez BOS – SP, Emerson Hancock SEA – SP,RP, Elly De La Cruz CIN – SS, Chase DeLauter CLE – OF |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Christian Walker HOU – 1B, Kevin McGonigle DET – 3B,SS |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Oneil Cruz PIT – OF |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Adolis García PHI – OF |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, 1st Round Pick | Spencer Strider ATL – SP, 3rd Round Pick |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Wilyer Abreu BOS – OF |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Edward Cabrera CHC – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, JJ Wetherholt STL – 2B,3B,SS | Ketel Marte AZ – 2B, Taj Bradley MIN – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Randy Vásquez SD – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Ivan Herrera STL – C |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Trey Yesavage TOR – SPMunetaka Murakami CWS – 1B,3B | Junior Caminero TB – 3B |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Michael Busch CHC – 1B | Nick Kurtz ATH – 1B |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Edward Cabrera CHC – SP, Miguel Vargas CWS – 1B,3B, Jakob Marsee MIA – OF, 7th, 15th, 16th Round Picks | Max Scherzer TOR – SP, Randy Arozarena SEA – OF, Jacob Wilson윌슨 ATH – SS, Kazuma Okamoto TOR – 1B,3B, 2nd, 4th, 5th Round Picks |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Eury Pérez MIA – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Ben Rice NYY – C,1B, Chase Burns CIN – SP,RP | Aaron Judge NYY – OF, Bubba Chandler PIT – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Freddy Peralta NYM – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Casey Mize DET – SP, 8th Round Pick | Cole Ragans KC – SP, 12th Round Pick |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Braxton Ashcraft PIT – SP,RP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Jorge Polanco NYM – 2B,3B, Kris Bubic KC – SP | Jarren Duran BOS – OF, Matt McLain CIN – 2B |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Matt McLain CIN – 2B | Austin Riley ATL – 3B |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF | Giancarlo Stanton NYY – OF, Bubba Chandler PIT – SP |
| Apr 9 | Jordan Walker STL – OF, Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL – OF, Andrew Vaughn MIL – 1B | Luis Rengifo MIL – 2B,3B,OF, Triston Casas BOS – 1B, Shohei Ohtani (Batter) LAD – Util |
I highlighted some that feel like really easy deals to make that have very little downside even if Walker is great the rest of the way. You do not have to sell these types of players if you can’t get the deal you want or if you truly believe in them, but it is usually a good idea.
- Do Not Drop Or Trade Away Struggling Studs
One of the things I have learned doing my offseason series the “Justin Mason Apology Tour” is that you drop between 13-17 players off of your roster in a 30 round draft even on your good teams. That being said, you do not drop your top players in April. The top half of your roster should be undroppable for the first month of the season and you should not be selling low on your top players either unless there is a massive change in their profile.
- Rules Are Meant To Be Broken
I outline these rules, but let’s be honest, I will probably break them this year and years to come.
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.