Mango ChUtley

Chase Utley entered the season with two big questions to answer – could he stay healthy and how hard would age related decline bite? The answers turned out to be yes (good!) and pretty hard (not so good). Despite that, Utley turned in $15 of value per Mr. Sandman with an average preseason cost of $10 according to Fantasy Pros. That makes him an uncommon known commodity who turned a profit.

It was a front loaded season for Utley. After posting throwback numbers in April and May, he kind of disappeared for the final four months. See his wRC+ per month below or via this link. He’ll be 36 years old next year, so age is likely tied to the in-season decline. Utley, manager Ryne Sandberg, and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. have all talked about getting him more rest in 2015 (along with other veterans like Jimmy Rollins). The working theory: these guys are old and more rest will keep them fresher, longer.

*Click to make the font even smaller (kidding)*

The issue with the rest plan is three-fold. First, there’s no guarantee it works. It’s a theoretically sound plan, but we’re working off a correlation. We think age and games played were the culprits for Utley’s in-season decline, but we have no proof (more on this in a moment). Incidentally, Utley is the kind of player who doesn’t like to sit, i.e. he’s a gamer. Taking frequent rest days may drive him nuts. And that brings me to his backups – currently names like Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis. Ick.

In an attempt to identify what exactly was different about Utley’s first two months, I’ve separated April and May from the final four. A few things jump off the page at a high level. His BABIP’s were quite high in the early months, in the mid .360’s, and his ISO hovered around .200. His BABIP fell to the .260’s beginning in June and his ISO dwindled to the .110’s*. That tells me he was probably smoking the ball early and a little lucky too. His batted ball data shows an increase in infield fly balls, but not enough to explain a .100 point drop in BABIP.

*I’m averaging monthly numbers while disregarding plate appearances, hence the estimations. The third decimal point is unimportant in this case. 

One theory, in which I’m still waiting to collect data, is that the infield shift may have played a role. I didn’t watch many Phillies games, but it did seem as though Utley saw more shifts than in the past. If those shifts increased suddenly around, say, the end of May, then we could have identified part of the problem. Utley does pull a lot of balls, with most of his damage to the right side. I will update this section if I find anything definitive regarding shifts.

Despite the uncertainty around why Utley trailed off – we’re pretty sure, but not certain it’s age related – he still posted a solid five category season for his fantasy owners. He’ll once again hit in the middle of the Phillies lineup. It’s possible the clean up spot will be reinforced with Yasmany Tomas (himself a mystery re: expected production), which should help Utley score more runs. If Tomas does land elsewhere, expect Utley’s counting stats to experience a modest decline in 2015.

Last but certainly not least, 2014 was his healthiest season since 2009. While his chondromalacia is no longer an immediate concern, he’s the kind of gritty player who absorbs injuries by virtue of playing hard. He’s liable to over-extend his aging body at some point next season and require a stint on the disabled list. You should bank on it while setting your values. Still, in a game with dwindling power, Utley offers a useful fall back option at second base should you whiff on more reliable targets. I see him as a means to bridge the gap to a Robert Refsnyder or similar potential breakout.