Mailbag: NL-Only Keepers
Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:
Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.
You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Worried about JJs IPs last year?
A bit, yes. It didn’t seem to be too bad, but take a look at his velocity chart from last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4567&position=P&pitch=FA
His fastball did take a hit during the last few starts of last year, but a pitcher that throws 200 innings for the first time is likely to have that problem.
Overall, I’m more worried about an injury than his inning total.