Looking Back, and Forward: The Top 10 Players for the Rest of the Season

Fresh off the buzz of excluding Joe Panik from my top 15 second base rankings, I’m doubling down and ranking the top 10 overall.

In late February, I tackled the task of ranking the safest hitter picks in the first round. Here are the safety rankings I came up with: 1. Mike Trout, 2. Andrew McCutchen, 3. Carlos Gomez, 4. Paul Goldschmidt, 5. Edwin Encarnacion, 6. Jose Bautista, 7. Giancarlo Stanton, 8. Miguel Cabrera, 9. Jose Abreu, 10. Anthony Rizzo

It doesn’t look too bad, though Gomez and Encarnacion are the obvious misses. Now I’ll work off of those rankings, but scrap the safety angle since it doesn’t really make sense at this point, and simply rank my top 10 players for the rest of the season. Statistics through June 17.

1. Mike Trout: Trout has been all that’s expected. He seems to have solved the slight strikeout issue he developed last season.

2. Paul Goldschmidt: Goldschmidt originally settled in after Gomez (and McCutchen) largely because I thought there would be some power decline this season after his injury last season. Not so. He’s matched last season’s homer total in 44 fewer games and his .316 ISO is the best of his career by far. He’s also running more than ever. His BABIP is 60 points higher than his career rate even with a large increase in fly balls, so I expect his average to sink a bit. At .363, it has a long way to sink before it becomes an issue.

3. Miguel Cabrera: I’m not going to beat myself up over Cabrera’s low placement in the safety rankings. His status for Opening Day was a big question when the original article came out. He ended up being ready to start the season, and he’s been his usual fantastic self. Now healthier, he’s bounced back from a power dip and swinging strike increase in 2014.

4. Giancarlo Stanton: I dropped Stanton to No. 7 in the safety rankings because of his injury history and a slight worry his contact issues could lead to an atrocious average at some point. Injuries have been a non factor. His worst BB/K since 2012 and worst contact rate ever have done nothing to alleviate that slight worry about contact issues. However, home runs make up for plenty of worries. He’s sitting on 24 home runs, while Steamer and ZiPS both project 25 more. That’s power you can’t get from anyone else and, as if you need a reminder, it’s for real. Stanton has a sizeable lead in Hard% and five of the 10 longest home runs hit this season have come off of his bat.

Two more notes: Stanton’s BABIP is about 30 points lower than his career rate. Some of that is his increase in fly balls, but I’d put more trust in his full history than two and a half months. Also, though he’s not stealing as much as last season’s high-water mark, he is running more than earlier in his career. He’s at four steals with five more projected from ZiPS and Steamer.

5. Anthony Rizzo: Looking back, I wish I had the guts to push Rizzo as high as I felt he should go in the preseason. I held back because he only had one good season under his belt. That won’t be a problem anymore. He’s become even more selective and maintained his power, plus chipped in 10 steals just for fun.

6. Andrew McCutchen: McCutchen’s position as one of the bastions of steady fantasy production looked shaky early in the season. His knee was sore and his production was sour. Fortunately for fantasy owners and people who placed him second on safety rankings, he turned things around once May started. After an 82 wRC+ in April, he put up a 173 wRC+ in May and is working on a 153 wRC+ in June.

7. Bryce Harper: Timing was everything for Harper’s ranking on this list as Harper injured his leg against the Rays during writing. I dropped him from fourth as a result. I think one of the main reasons Harper was BRYCE HARPER in 2015 instead of just a great player as he had been in his three previous seasons was health. So, while this ranking might look silly if his leg injury turns out to be very minor, in the moment I have to knock him down a few spots.

8. Josh Donaldson: He’s doing almost exactly what was hoped when he moved to a better park for right-handed power. His placement in baseball’s best lineup, and the resulting effect on his counting stats, pushes him above Todd Frazier at third base.

9. Jose Abreu: Abreu’s plate discipline has improved this season, with fewer swinging strikes and more contact. He’s slightly off last season’s stratospheric power pace and brings along only a mild batting average risk compared to other power hitters.

10. Jose Bautista: I made a big deal about how Bautista’s inflated BABIP from 2014 was sustainable… and it hasn’t held up. While his plate discipline and power remain excellent, he really shouldn’t be in the conversation as high as I had him if he’s hitting .250, unless he is hitting more home runs.

Fell off the list:

Carlos Gomez: I expressed trepidation with Gomez, but not for the reason that has derailed him this season. Injuries, not plate discipline, have slowed Gomez. He’s missed time with hamstring and hip troubles, not ideal for a player whose value relies on speed.

Edwin Encarnacion: It’s hard to quantify how much Encarnacion’s lingering shoulder trouble has affected his statistics, though it sure looks like the cause of his dip in production. While his batting eye looks the same as always (or better), he’s swinging and missing much more. His Hard% is also the lowest it’s been since 2009 and he’s hitting the most ground balls of his career. I can’t keep a 32-year-old power hitter dealing with shoulder woes in my top 10, but this is not a write-off. Encarnacion has shown the ability to go on monster power streaks (16 home runs last May) and bounce back from usually power-sapping injuries (wrist surgery in near the end of 2013).