Fantasy Links — 11/10/2009
We’re only about a week into the offseason and spots all over the web are already preparing for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. We’ll have excellent content all winter long here on RotoGraphs, but let’s check out what some other folks are up to as well…
Fantasy Alpha has a 2010 mock draft with some pretty interesting picks, including Troy Tulowitzki in the second round and Ben Zobrist in the fourth. RotoGraphs’ own Eno Sarris broke down Tulo’s fantastic 2009 campaign a few weeks ago. With a .344/.421/.622 second-half batting line, the shortstop might be poised for another fine season, but taking him in the top 20 does seem risky.
Paul Singman of The Hardball Times takes an even deeper look into Tulowitzki’s 2009 season. “The last time he was coming off a good season he did disappoint in the next one,” writes Singman. “However, no logical reasoning points to why that would happen again.”
The fellas over at Razzball aren’t expecting big things from Stephen Strasburg in his rookie season: “Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and 120 Ks in 100 innings after a June call-up. Terrific, ownable, not draftable for where he’ll be taken.” Strasburg may go a bit over-valued in drafts this spring because of the hype.
Razball also has a look at Alcides Escobar’s draft value now that J.J. Hardy is out of the picture in Milwaukee. Escobar swiped 42 bases in 109 games at the Triple-A level in 2009. He probably won’t hit for a great average in his first full season, but it sounds like the Brewers are committed to giving him a great deal of playing time. He’s a sleeper in the stolen bases category, without a doubt.
Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365 is concerned about the drop in Brian Fuentes‘ rate stats from 2008 to 2009. “In 2008 Fuentes posted a career best 3.78 K/BB rate including 11.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched,” writes Saponara. “His K/BB rate dropped to 1.92 this past season with a decline in K/9 to 7.5.” But does that mean he should be overlooked in drafts for the 2010 season? Definitely not. “As long as he’s the Angels closer,” Saponara concludes, “his save total will be inflated.”
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Drew –
Thanks for the link. With the falls of Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes, the SS position looks as if it goes a mere three or four deep. With hindsight, I may have held off a couple of rounds and taken Derek Jeter.
When I chose TT, my thinking was similar to Paul Singman’s. I was bitten by TT in that follow-up sophmore effort. Also figured it couldn’t happen again. Right?
One comment on Tulo: Of his 32 HR’s, 8 were categorized by HR Tracker as “Just Enough”. He also had 9 “No doubters” and 1 “Lucky” HR.
Is there any kind of system that classifies fly balls that would have been HRs in most parks? It would be interesting to know how many times player hits a fly ball that would be a HR in 50%, 75%, and 90% of parks.