Let’s Talk Toles – Deep League Waiver Wire

If you’re still in the hunt for a fantasy championship at this point in the season, let me just say, nicely done. Labor Day marks the stretch run of the fantasy season, during which our preferences for substantive changes in approach or ability run secondary to riding out any and all hot streaks we can get our hands on. With that in mind, I’d like to turn our attention to our titular hero, Andrew Toles, a free-swinging, light-hitting outfielder, fighting for time on a crowded and talented Dodgers roster. I know, I know that sounds terrible. But I should also mention he’s absolutely raking right now and has speed in spades.

 

Over his first 70 MLB plate appearances, Andrew Toles (2% Yahoo, 5.1% ESPN, 5% CBS) has certainly made a splash, most recently launching a dramatic grand slam off Rockies’ closer, Adam Ottavino, that absolutely destroyed a week’s worth of ERA, WHIP, and HR/9 progress I’d made in my Ottoneu league. Known more for his 70-grade speed and unique story than his bat, the 24-year old rookie is sitting on a dandy 190 wRC+ having hit 3 homers while scoring 13 runs and plating another 13 more. Mostly batting in the bottom third of the order, Toles has forced his way into playing time with his bat and glove. And the crazy thing is, Toles hasn’t even began to run yet.

Despite just one Major League stolen base to his name, Toles is slashing a BABIP-aided .377/.443/.656. And while a BABIP cacophony is hardly uncommon and even expected in sample sizes this small, it’s Toles’ double-digit walk rate that’s most surprising. Having ne’er lodged a walk rate above 6% throughout his minor league career, Toles is walking in 10% of his plate appearances in his first crack at Big League pitching. Shockingly, he’s done so with a nearly 40% chase rate and 13% whiff rate.

Toles owes his recent success in large part to his contact abilities in the zone, where so far he’s swung and missed at just over 8% of pitches; the league average whiff rate in the strike zone is nearly 14%. He’s also been remarkably reliable at making contact in two strike counts.

This is a heatmap of Toles’ contact rate when he’s one pitch away from striking out. Obviously, there’s a hole in his swing low in the zone that pitchers should look to exploit moving forward. But on everything else, he’s yet to miss, allowing him to extend ABs and put the ball in play.

Still, excellent strike zone contact aside, it’s not easy to maintain double digit walk rates while chasing and whiffing as much as Toles does. I say that because nobody ever has, at least not since 2002, the first year from which we have advanced plate discipline data. Since then, there have been 44 player-seasons in which a hitter has posted a whiff rate of at least 12% and a swinging strike rate of at least 38%, similar rates to those of Toles. Of those 44 seasons, only four have ever ended with a wRC+ over 100.

Now to be fair, I need to point out three things. The first is that even though plate discipline metrics stabilize faster than most types, we’re still talking about just 70 plate appearances here. But as I stated in the intro, we’re at the point in the season when waiting for statistically significant sample sizes is synonymous with waiting for the off-season. We just don’t have the luxury of patience anymore.

Two, this table isn’t meant to suggest that Toles is anywhere near the caliber of these four players. In fact, my point is quite the opposite. The only four players able to sustain even mildly productive seasons given comparable proclivities for chasing and whiffing are or were incredible hitters. Former top prospects or international free agents, All-Stars, MVPs, or some combination of the three. Toles is not that, certainly not judging by scouting reports.

The third point I’d like to make is that none of the chase and whiff-rate comps I pulled, including the four aforementioned seasons, sniffed Toles’ ability to make contact in the zone. In fact, isolating performances since 2002 with comparable whiff and chase rates, Adam Jones claims the highest Z-Contact% at just 77.8% in 2015, almost 14 points lower than Toles’ 2016 to-date. So while he may never possess the discretion of Joey Votto, or even Keon Broxton for that matter, we at least know that the Dodgers’ young speedster should reach base more often than his selectivity might suggest simply by virtue of his ability to put good pitches in play. And this is important because just one look at Toles’ prospect grading will tell you his value is almost exclusively tied to his speed.

Across three minor league levels this season, Toles has swiped 23 bases, requiring just 349 plate appearances to do so. His 0.97 Attempts per Plate Appearance would rank 4^th at the Major League level. I realize of course that in many ways this is a totally inane statement given how much more difficult it is to reach base in the majors than in High-A ball, where he started the year. So if we look at steal attempts per time on base (excluding reaching via error, fielder’s choice, etc. because it’s Labor Day and I’m traveling with a small child and it’s too difficult to look it up), Toles would still rank in the top echelon of Major League base stealers. Despite their imperfections, both metrics shows that despite his lone MLB stolen base, Toles will certainly flash his speed if given the opportunity.

One way to create said opportunity is to pair a 27% line drive rate with a potentially newfound affinity for the free pass. Toles certainly seems to be marrying quality contact with perhaps transitory plate discipline at just the right time for deep league owners. It’s possible that given his most recent 17% success rate at AAA, Toles has yet to earn Dave Roberts’ blessing to steal at-will but that said, he’s in L.A. primarily for his speed. Even if at the moment he’s not running, Toles is still hitting enough right now that he needs to be rostered in leagues of 16 teams or more. If can he maintain any semblance of his newfound walk rate, Toles could prove a dynamic multi-category contributor through September.