LaHair and Milone: Waiver Wire
Bryan LaHair (ESPN: 32 percent owned; Yahoo!: 41 percent owned)
In many ways, LaHair’s start is what I expected from him. He’s not leading the league in home runs — hat tip to you, Matt Kemp, and your home run every 8 PAs — but he’s in the pack tied for sixth in the NL after jacks in back-to-back games against St. Louis. He’s also striking out a fair amount, which should come as no surprise for a young player whose ability to stay in the majors is directly related to his power. His 33 percent strikeout rate ranks him fifth in the NL, which isn’t great, but in most leagues it’s really neither here nor there, since outs are outs when strikeouts aren’t a hitting category.
Even though I was a LaHair believer before the season, I’ve been impressed with his non-power contributions. His .367 average is built on an unsustainable .522 BABIP, but is also the outcome of better-than-expected plate discipline. LaHair’s minor league walk rate isn’t bad, but his current 17 percent rate grades out as a career best irrespective of level, something that obviously raises his stock in OBP leagues. I don’t expect his batting average to stay in the .300s for the rest of the season, but if he continues to be selective with his swings, there’s no reason he won’t be able to keep his average in the .275-.280 range. He is swinging at an above-average number of pitches out of the strike zone, something he’ll need to fix lest opposing pitchers learn to exploit it.
Even with Anthony Rizzo killing the ball in Triple-A to the tune of .373/.420/.693 with 7 HR in 81 PAs, LaHair doesn’t look like he’s in any danger of losing playing time. As the weather in Chicago warms up and the wind blows from a less northerly direction, LaHair may find home runs even easier to come by than he is now. He’ll never be Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera, but if those guys are available on the waiver wire the way LaHair is, you might want to think about playing in a deeper league.
Tommy Milone (ESPN: 7 percent owned; Yahoo! 17 percent owned)
If you’re combing the waiver wire for strikeouts, Milone is not for you. If you’re looking for help for rate stats, Milone is likely to be the best option available. His paltry 4.33 K/9 isn’t going to be an upgrade over too many rostered starters — though oddly, it is better than both Madison Bumgarner’s 4.07 and Brandon Morrow’s 4.05 K/9 — but he doesn’t seem worse for the wear. His 0.85 WHIP over his first four starts with the A’s is incredibly impressive. Much of his success is coming from his 44 percent groundball rate, as well as his .205 BABIP. I must confess some surprise that he isn’t suffering more seeing-eye singles with a groundball rate that high, but Oakland is turning balls in play into outs at the sixth best rate in the majors, which certainly helps keep Milone’s BABIP low.
Milone is starting about two-thirds of the hitters he faces off with strike one, something that’s keeping hitters from feasting on his offerings in the zone, but what’s perhaps most intriguing to me about Milone is the extent to which he is keeping hitters off balance. Over his four starts, Milone is getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone and take pitches in the zone at above average rates. When hitters do get it right and swing at pitches in the zone, they are making contact at a rate well above average, but it’s a habit he can indulge as long as he continues to induce plenty of weak contact. He’ll get in trouble if hitters start laying off his pitches out of the zone, but so far, no one has shown an ability to do it, so he’s worth rostering going forward.
Dan enjoys black tea, imperial IPAs, and any competition that can be loosely judged a sport. Follow him on Twitter.
funny i thought you somehow pulling in Morrow’s BB/9 instead of his k/9. 4.05 for a guy who has nearly 10K/9 during his career? Small sample I know, but anyone have any ideas what is going on with him?
I haven’t looked at him at all, to be honest. I was just as surprised as you were to see his name that low on the K/9 list. I’ll try to poke around his numbers this weekend.
On Morrow…
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/4/24/2972184/brandon-morrow-blue-jays-stats
Milone seems destined to live out his career (or at least start it off) as an anomaly, but he should already be a favorite of saber savvy fans. He embodies some of the central tenets of the Moneyball era:
1) Trust the numbers, not your eyes.
2) Minor league stats matter.
The guy had over a 9:1 K:BB in 145 innings in AAA last year. He struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings. He dominated a full season of AA and got better in a full season of AAA. These aren’t blips. Any self-respecting reader of this site should see that he has been and should continue to be a good pitcher. Everyone quotes the MPH of his fastball, but last I checked there was a LOT more support for the predictive strength minor league equivalencies than velocity rates.
He’s good. Stop letting it surprise you.
Millone has faced 4 of the 6 worst offenses in the AL to date (Sea, KC, LAA, CWS) and while he’s generating GB’s, he’s not exactly a GB machine (ranked 20th in the AL). He’s a scary add going forward.
You can only beat the teams you play. Your point would be salient if this success was incongruent with his history. It’s not. The only incongruency is a K/9 that is lower than the one he has posted at every stop in his career (and a BB/9 that is higher). He’s as much of growth stock as he is a regression risk.
And GB%? Just more pigeonholing that a guy with low velocity is either a GB machine or he’s not good. The arguments against Milone are all theoretical*, the arguments in favor are concrete. This is what sabermetrics is all about. Which side are you on?
*He’s a soft tosser, he needs more GB to survive, his stuff won’t translate to the majors, it’s more about his opponents, they’ll figure him out soon…
“And GB%? Just more pigeonholing that a guy with low velocity is either a GB machine or he’s not good.”
How did I pigeonhole? The writer suggests, “Much of his success is coming from his 44 percent groundball rate, as well as his .205 BABIP.” I’m pointing out that his GB rate isn’t extreme, currently ranking 20th in the AL.
And while it’s obvious his results to date have been great, should we ignore the fact that he’s faced some of the weakest lineups in the AL?
1) Trust the numbers, not your eyes.
2) Minor league stats matter.
What about adding one, 3) Sample size matters.
The writer pigeonholed too. And 20th isn’t bad. 20th is good. There are 65 starters in the AL.
Yes, sample size matters. But it doesn’t mean results aren’t real. It means they aren’t reliable. And he has a large sample size in the minors. It’s hard to tell if you’re trying to say that he is not good, or that he MIGHT not be good.
Of course he might not be good. But the numbers suggest he is.
I’m saying his results over four MLB starts this year are good. I’m also saying he’s faced some terrible offenses in two of the parks best known for depressing runs and I believe his lack of K’s, lack of stuff, and non-elite GB rate will make him a back of the rotation – 4/5 starter. If that’s what you’re looking to add in your league, go for it. If you’re looking to add a low 3’s FIP guy, good luck.
Yea, this is where we disagree.
“He’s faced some terrible offenses in two of the parks best known for depressing runs and I believe his lack of K’s, lack of stuff, and non-elite GB rate will make him a back of the rotation – 4/5 starter.”
1) Agreed, he hasn’t faced the Yankees or Tigers. We can consider this a factor that decreases the reliability of his results. It doesn’t make them worse – you can only beat the teams you play. But I agree I won’t use his 4 starts this year as the foundation of my pro-Milone position.
2) Park factors. His home park is very pitcher friendly, and 1 of the 3 away parks in his division (Safeco) is also very pitcher friendly. This isn’t irrelevant. Park factors matter for fantasy. It’s not a knock on him, it’s a bonus.
3) “I believe his lack of K’s, lack of stuff, and non-elite GB rate will make him a back of the rotation – 4/5 starter.” Here’s the meat. Let’s break it down further:
3a) Lack of K’s. He had 9.40 K/9 in 148.1 AAA innings last year. In 2010, he had 8.83 K/9 in 158 AA innings. This is why I emphasized minor league equivalencies – these are elite numbers. The sample size argument works AGAINST Milone haters – we can base predictions off his 9.11 K/9 in 306.1 AA/AAA innings, or we can use his 4.75 K/9 in 53 major league innings. After adjusting for the jump for AAA –> The Show, he still registers as an average to above average strikeout pitcher.
3b) Lack of stuff. This ties in a lot with 3a, and it’s where “Trust the numbers” factors in. No, he doesn’t have mid-90’s gas. But he has always struck people out. At some point you have to ignore “stuff” and acknowledge a strong track record. Baseball history is littered with high “stuff” guys that never realized their potential.
3c) Non-elite ground ball rate. We’ve gone back and forth on this one already; my point here is “so what?” Where does it say he needs high GB rates to be successful? Sure, a number of pitchers rely on elite GB rates, but there are studies that show an extreme FB tilt is the second most preferable batted-ball ratio (after extreme GB). Unfortunately we don’t have batted ball info for his minor league career, but maybe he just isn’t a GB pitcher. It hasn’t prevented him from being elite at every stop.
Should I drop Boesch for Lahair?
No way. Keep Boesch
I drafted Milone in every league. I don’t care about his low K/9 – he is a ratio godsend, and if you have enough high K middle relievers it makes for awesome ratios and competitive Ks. Minor league record backs it up. He’ll be on my bench at Boston but he’s worth picking up.
Been targeting LaHair since his cup of coffee last year. Paid off in dividends. Got him for a $1 in many drafts.
cool story Hansel
You mad bro?
Thanks for pointing Milone out. For sure, a very interesting case. His early K rate may be a bit skewed by his first start. From the numbers and reports, comparisons to David Wells come to mind.
Would you rather Milone or Drabek?
Milone
LaHair or Cody Ross?
Somebody run a comparison between Milone and another similar soft-tossing low-K high-minors wonderkind acquired by the A’s about a decade ago under similar circumstances … RH Kirk Saarloos
Which Oakland pitcher for this year? Milone or Parker?
Parker is going to provide a few more Ks, I think Milone gives the better rates. My instinct is to go with Parker with his higher ceiling, but he probably also has the lower floor.