Kershaw’s Quest For Third Pitch

Without question, Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. A 6-3, 220 pounder who’s just barely old enough to legally kick back a beer after a game, Kershaw possesses a searing mid-90’s fastball and a hook that earned the “Public Enemy Number One” designation from Vin Scully.

While Kershaw has as much long-term potential as any starter in the game, it can be a little frustrating to watch him endure growing pains at the major league level. Take his last outing: a 2.2 inning, four-walk stinker versus the Padres. In his next start, Kershaw could punch out a baker’s dozen (as he did against the Giants on April 15th), or he could fail to make it out of the third inning.

In 107 innings last season, Kershaw posted rates of 8.36 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 while compiling a 4.08 FIP. Authoring a 4.04 FIP in 2009, he’s whiffing a few more batters (8.72 K/9) but his control has taken another step backward. Kershaw is issuing an unacceptable 5.48 walks per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of free passes among all qualified starting pitchers. Not surprisingly, Kershaw is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, while tossing 4.3 pitches per plate appearance (4.0 in 2008). No pitcher in the N.L. has thrown more pitches per PA (well, unless you wanna count Cody Ross’ one-inning stint for the Fish).

At the moment, Kershaw’s biggest obstacle to acedom would appear to be his lack of a third pitch. Clayton’s 93.6 MPH fastball (thrown about 75 percent of the time) has been a quality offering, with a run value of +0.94 runs per 100 pitches that ranks in the top 20 among starters. That vaunted slooow curve (utilized about 18 percent) is also biting, at +1.58 (just outside the top 20). His changeup, though? Clayton has pulled the string just over 6 percent of the time. While keeping in mind that the sample is small, the change has a sordid run value of -5.42 per 100 pitches (5th worst among starters).

The changeup is typically thrown to opposite-handed batters, so Kershaw hasn’t really had a pitch that moves away from righties. In 2009, Clayton has eviscerated left-handed hitters with his heat and yellow hammer to the tune of a .149/.255/.213 line in 56 PA. He has a 3.17 K/BB ratio versus southpaw batters. While right-handers aren’t exactly lighting him up, they are getting on base at a far higher clip (.237/.355/.390, 1.3 K/BB ratio in 216 PA).

Take that June 10th start against San Diego. The Padres had six guys batting from the right side, none of them especially imposing (Eckstein, Kouzmanoff, Headley, E. Gonzalez, Blanco, J. Wilson). Here’s how Kershaw pitched to a lineup that wouldn’t stand out at Portland (graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

The green dots are fastballs, the pink ones are curveballs and the lonely yellow dot is a changeup.

There’s just one changeup. Mostly, Kershaw flipped curveballs up there that he couldn’t locate, or attempted to bust righties on the inner half of the plate with fastballs. He gave up doubles to Kouzmanoff and Headley, and somehow managed to walk Blanco (career .289 OBP) once and Wilson (.279) twice!

That’s an extreme case, but it does serve to highlight the next big step for Kershaw. He’s going to have to find a way to tighten the strike zone against righty batters to graduate from talented-but-inconsistent prodigy to full-fledged ace.