Keeper League ‘Would You Rather…?’ — Danny Espinosa or Neil Walker
Usually Thursday’s are reserved for Kicking Rocks, but with such limited complaints and too few games remaining to do much about it anyway, it’s time again to play some Keeper League ‘Would You Rather…?’ Moving around the diamond this week brings us to second base and a pair of young, potentially studly long term options.
Would you rather keep Danny Espinosa or Neil Walker?
At the ages of 24 and 25, respectively, Espinosa and Walker both have the potential to be long term keeper options so long as they atleast maintain their current levels of production and continue to grow and mature as hitters. Given their 2011 numbers and minor league history, that seems to be the path both are headed down. So, gun to your head, you have to pick one over the other. Who’s it going to be?
Let’s take a look at the basic fantasy numbers…
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | |
| Danny Espinosa | 60 | 19 | 59 | 13 | .230 | .316 |
| Neil Walker | 66 | 11 | 76 | 7 | .274 | .340 |
It’s a little give and take with each one, isn’t it? With Espinosa, you sacrifice average and OBP for some extra power and more stolen bases, while with Walker, you’ve got less power and less speed but better RBI production with a much better average and OBP. The RBI situation is easily expected to be different with Espinosa splitting time equally between the 2 and 6-hole and Walker regularly batting cleanup for the Pirates, sometimes third. But the fact that Walker is a better contact hitter with a much lower SwStr% (6.5% to 10.8%) obviously helps as well. Espinosa may be able to clear the wall with a little more ease, but Walker seems like the more polished hitter at this point in time.
In looking at some of the peripherals…
| BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | WAR | |
| Danny Espinosa | 8.4% | 24.0% | .183 | .276 | .323 | 3.0 |
| Neil Walker | 8.8% | 17.6% | .129 | .317 | .324 | 2.7 |
…the K% is potentially the most obvious concern. Walker seems right in line with his 2010 totals and career minor league mark while Espinosa’s has actually spiked. He did drop it a touch from his late season call-up in 2010, but not enough to put your mind completely at ease. He appears to be going the way of a number of power guys — the Sink or Swim/HR or Strikeout Guide to Hitting. It’s not the worst thing in the world, especially if the power is going to increase, but if your league penalizes for strikeouts, then that could be the difference-maker.
Another encouraging thing about Walker is that, while there was concern last season that his .340 BABIP was helping to inflate his numbers, you can see this season that a much more reasonable .317 BABIP may have translated to a lower average, but the dropoff in overall production wasn’t all that high. Walker, from last year to this year, has been remarkably consistent. But perhaps that could also mean an improvement for Espinosa next season. What happens if he cuts down that K% just a bit and sees his BABIP move closer to .300? Not only could you be looking at an improved average and OBP, but a possible increase in power and more opportunities on the bases.
Overall, it would seem that both players have the potential to get better and should be protected from year to year with much regularity. But with the higher power potential and better speed on the bases, Espinosa looks like the better call if you can sacrifice a bit of batting average. What you may lose in that one category will easily be made up for with the others. Walker should be consistent throughout his career, but Espoinosa has the potential to be explosive.
Your thoughts…?
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
Agreed. Love upside in keeper leagues.
At this stage Espinosa seems like the more dynamic hitter in the future as he can provide the SBs, and could be the next perennial 20-20 2B.
Also, for what its worth, WAR is not a good measure for FBB.
What are their xBABIPs?
I’m not sure I’d protect a 2B at all, actually, unless I had an elite option like Cano, Weeks or Pedrioa (Or Kisnler, Young or Zobrist). Is there a position other than 1B that’s as absurdly deep? There are at least 15 viable options at 2B, assuming eligibility stays the same, some with much more upside than others, but no one so terrible that’d I’d be upset if I ended up with them.
That being said, if Walker keeps his 3B eligibility next year (and I’m not sure he will) there’s an argument for him right there. His 3B eligibility in Yahoo has saved my ass a couple times this year. He’s a handy player to have around.
Phillips doesn’t fall into your elite 2B category? I can only keep 6 guys and I thought he was a lock considering his Runs and RBI production at the position.
2B in my league I am 90-100% certain will be kept: Pedroia, Cano, Weeks, Young, Zobrist, Walker, Utley, Lawrie.
This. 2B this year was a deep position with a pretty mild distribution between top and bottom. I’m not sure it will change much next year, but it will be interesting to see how many 2B are kept/drafted. There are so many viable options. The six you mentioned, Phillips, Uggla, Cuddyer, Kendrick, Walker, Espinosa, Murphy, Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Prado, Kipnis. That’s 17 pretty viable starting 2B all of whom are likely to get rostered by the end of the draft in a good percentage of 12-team leagues, and only three of whom figure to have useful multi-position eligibility (Cuddyer, Murphy, Prado). And you still have some upside in guys like Aaron Hill and Gordon Beckham. It doesn’t seem like a position where keeping a player should be a huge priority unless you have a great value. If Lawrie were to retain eligibility, he might be the only guy I’d consider a sure-fire keeper, but he probably won’t in most leagues.
Definitely Drinking the Espinosa Kool-Aid.
His value could also skyrocket with a rumored switch to SS next year should they decide to scrap Ian Desmond (a good idea IMO).
in 5×5 H2H he has been a serious asset when hot.
Another Keeper League 2B who’d you rather?:
Jose Altuve or Jemile Weeks?
Altuve looks like a .300 hitter that could push 10 homers and 20+ SB’s in a full season.
Weeks is looking more like a .280ish hitter with little power but 40+ SB potential.
Neither guy is going to do you any favors in the OBP category but both look like top-of-the-order hitters on their respective teams for a while to come.
Altuve has the age advantage at 21 vs. Weeks at 24 but Weeks shows the better 5×5 fantasy talents currently.
Who’d you rather in your dynasty/keeper league?
Prior to his 30 sb this season, Weeks’ previous high score in a season was 16. Obviously he has some speed, but he doesn’t yet seem to have a great grip on how to use it. He’s also got the Weeks family injury bug to overcome.
As for the article’s question, I’d take Espinosa’s upside over Walker. When I watch Walker, it feels like I’m watching a guy who will only be effective when he’s at or near 100% health. I get the sense that he’s a mild ankle sprain away from be below fantasy replacement level. Obviously that’s all purely subjective, but I’ve learned to trust myself on such things.
Neil Walker is eerily similar to Todd Walker….which is to say that his upside for 5×5 fantasy is “meh”
Espinosa definitely. The power might be a mirage, and the Ks might eat him alive, but he’s got potential to improve into awesomeness.
Walker is just a guy.
I’d go with Espinosa.
I’m struggling to decide between Lawrie or Heyward.
Lawrie over Heyward. Heyward does not appear to shake the “groundball machine” profile. Considering position, and that Lawrie may be a 5 category producer (poor man’s David Wright) next year, I go with Lawrie.
Would you rather keep David Wright in the 3rd round or Brett Lawrie in the 20th round of a 5×5 OBP league?
Great article as always. In this one I take Espinosa for the upside since I think walkers production is easier to replace than espinosas potential.
However, I’d keep Ackley over every 2B that’s been mentioned. I love his avg and ops and I think he’ll hit as many homers as walker.
I read this and immediatley thought about Ackley (as I am planning on keeping him next year).
Of these young 2b’s – who has the biggest FB upside? (Standard 5×5)
So what are the chances Espinosa turns into Kelly Johnson? Taken as either iteration of KJ.
I think Walker will show more power next year, say in the 15-20 HR range, while keeping his advantage in BA/OBP. Espinosa is having a nice rookie year but I think Walker is better overall and the better keeper.
Espinosa played SS n the minors, and if the Nats trade Desmond, he should start there.
In my NL league I take Walker. I HATE low batting average guys,
There’s a greater chance Espinosa drops to .200 BA or .300 OBP, thus not justifying playing him regularly. Walker will be more consistent and have opportunities (team dependent stats). One could justify keeping either depending on the rest of their keepers. Espinosa likely has a higher ceiling, but he is a higher risk so it depends on if your team is able to absorb that kind of risk (a risk that might be worth it more if Espinosa moves to SS, as others mentioned).
Agreed. I think the Nats are already making noise about using some call-ups over Espinosa and Desmond in September. One thing this site doesn’t tell you about Espinosa is that he has an extreme upper-cut swing. It’s really difficult for him to hit anything in the top half of the strike zone. The swing generates very few line drives, so even if he gets the Ks in order, he will never hit more than .235 or .245. But there’s always the risk he hits .220 (or less), which will kill any team – real or fantasy. With so many 2B out there (Espinosa’s 2011 production is ranked outside of the top 12 2B acc’d to ESPN’s player rater) I don’t think Espinosa is a great keeper option.
Here’s one for you-
Latos in the 12th round- or Pineda in the 18th round?
Discuss.
Tough call. They will give you similar K and BB numbers, but Pineda will probably give you a better WHIP while Latos gives you a better ERA. Both teams won’t give the pitchers many wins. There’s probably more value in keeping Pineda in the 18th round, but Latos could very easily have a better 2012. I would probably keep Pineda.
I think Espinosa has more value in an auction-style keeper league, especially if you can get him for dirt cheap. If you find yourself questioning the amount you have to pay to keep Espinosa, you probably should just let him go. I feel like risking a pick in a regular draft format on Espinosa might be a questionable decision, but if you can get him on the cheap in an auction-style, you should probably go for it and seal up some solid power numbers from the 2B (and potentially SS) position.